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China Has No Chance
You tube ^ | 19 Jan 2025 | Peter Zeihan

Posted on 01/19/2025 9:29:22 AM PST by DUMBGRUNT

The Chinese are stockpiling resources - food, fuel, and materials - to help it endure a protracted conflict with the US. Is this something to be concerned about?

(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Humor
KEYWORDS: fun
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To: MNJohnnie
I can see your point as being valid in the past. But with naval parity coming soon, and a reported 273X (!!) advantage in shipbuilding, China could soon dwarf American and allied firepower, with hypersonic missiles and the like denying American surface assets from anywhere near China.

After a few months of stalemate, I could see the Chinese secure the East Asian sea routes, cutting off America from vital resources coming from the region with 60% of the world's population and China gaining access to those resources. The US is in the same position now as Japan at the outset of WWII - we can run wild for 6 months, but if we haven't won by then I see little hope for victory.

21 posted on 01/19/2025 11:52:33 AM PST by EnderWiggin1970
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To: EnderWiggin1970

Nope

Take out the Chinese ships that are equivalent to our coast guard and China is no where near parity

In addition, as been seen in Ukraine, the much ballyhooed “hypersonic” missiles are a hardly what they been hyped up to be. The problem is at those speeds you cannot steer them. So they basically a fire and hope weapon.

The Chinese doesn’t have the ability to project power as the US does. The US spent the last 80 years building it miliary machine exilically to project power to any corner of the globe. Chain can maybe 1 or 2 a year with careful planning do the sort of power project the US Navy does every day world wide

Finally modern war depends very highly on airpower. The US Airforce and the US Naval air arm are the worlds largest and 2nd largest. The US has 450 5th generation fighters, China has 2. The US has 147 operational strategic bombers capably of hitting any target in China. China has zero bomber capable of hitting the USA.

Finally there is economics. China economy depending almost wholly on exports to the US and the EU

That comes crashing to a halt the 1st time China attacks anyone anywhere.

The Chinese are not stupid. They know full well they cannot go toe to toe with the US Military and it’s allies.


22 posted on 01/19/2025 12:09:01 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Don't blame me, my congressman is MTG!)
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To: DUMBGRUNT

Make China 1959 again.

Hungry didn’t have money for a war machine.

Until they made most of our items including medicine.


23 posted on 01/19/2025 12:13:35 PM PST by Vaduz
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To: MNJohnnie

Not to mention it comes down to anti-ssatellite warfare in the C4ISR fight. I don’t thibk Cbina wa ts to roll the dice in that realm because of the implications for the loser.


24 posted on 01/19/2025 12:23:53 PM PST by Salvavida (NS)
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To: logi_cal869

“This smacks of ds.”

What is ds?


25 posted on 01/19/2025 12:50:02 PM PST by DUMBGRUNT ( "The enemy has overrun us. We are blowing up everything. Vive la France!"Dien Bien Phu last message)
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To: fella

“This posting is much like the old FReepers of 20 years ago”

Zeihan was a long-time analyst at Stratfor.

Stratfor was a popular post on FR about twenty years ago.


26 posted on 01/19/2025 12:57:10 PM PST by DUMBGRUNT ( "The enemy has overrun us. We are blowing up everything. Vive la France!"Dien Bien Phu last message)
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To: MNJohnnie

I think the alliance with Iran and Russia makes their problems easier. Also given the role of China in world economy, whoever attack China, attacks the whole world.


27 posted on 01/19/2025 1:03:48 PM PST by NorseViking
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To: Vikon99

This neocon logic never cease to amuse me. How much is it cratering compared to say US or Europe and what removing Xi is supposed to solve?


28 posted on 01/19/2025 1:07:57 PM PST by NorseViking
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To: CodeToad

“China has all they need.”

Not even close but they are working hard on the problem.

Siberia is the target of choice, once Chinese territory and mineral-rich.

When Putin’s special operation starts running out of everything, China will make an offer the Russians cannot refuse.

Notice the map changes around the Ussuri and Amur Rivers.
“In August 2023, China’s Ministry of Natural Resources released a new edition of its “standard map.” According to defense analysts, it showed Bolshoy Ussuriysky, the Russian part of the island, as Chinese territory.”

Nothing kinetic, such a deal.


29 posted on 01/19/2025 1:14:23 PM PST by DUMBGRUNT ( "The enemy has overrun us. We are blowing up everything. Vive la France!"Dien Bien Phu last message)
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To: MNJohnnie

“Look at a map. Geography and alliances give the US Navy and Airforce an unbreakable choke hold on Chinese sea trade any time they want to apply it”

That’s the bottom line right there.

Especially with their inability to project power more than the range of fighter aircraft. ~500 miles.

And even that would be short lived against the US Air Force and US Navy.

We could cut their oil in 24hrs.


30 posted on 01/19/2025 1:39:40 PM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Lazamataz

LOL!


31 posted on 01/19/2025 2:18:13 PM PST by subterfuge (I'm a pure-blood!)
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To: DUMBGRUNT

“deep state”


32 posted on 01/19/2025 2:45:16 PM PST by logi_cal869 (-cynicus the "concern troll" a/o 10/03/2018 /!i!! &@$%&*(@ -)
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To: logi_cal869

Thank you.


33 posted on 01/19/2025 2:56:06 PM PST by DUMBGRUNT ( "The enemy has overrun us. We are blowing up everything. Vive la France!"Dien Bien Phu last message)
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To: Owen

China depends on exports from their cheap labor economy to stay afloat.

In the event of war they won’t be exporting anything.


34 posted on 01/19/2025 3:02:06 PM PST by desertfreedom765
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To: DUMBGRUNT

No prob. I should be clearer, but I’m in the kitchen popping off & on my laptop between things. My bad.

Bottom line, I can’t swallow minimizing the threat from chyna except as it serves to promote the ‘Russia is bad’ & ‘backing ukeland is good’ mantras. i.e., ‘deep state’ propaganda.

Trump has his work cut out for him.


35 posted on 01/19/2025 3:44:01 PM PST by logi_cal869 (-cynicus the "concern troll" a/o 10/03/2018 /!i!! &@$%&*(@ -)
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