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China Has No Chance
You tube ^ | 19 Jan 2025 | Peter Zeihan

Posted on 01/19/2025 9:29:22 AM PST by DUMBGRUNT

The Chinese are stockpiling resources - food, fuel, and materials - to help it endure a protracted conflict with the US. Is this something to be concerned about?

(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Humor
KEYWORDS: fun
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A two-minute video interesting observations and a fun ending.
1 posted on 01/19/2025 9:29:22 AM PST by DUMBGRUNT
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To: DUMBGRUNT

No, because China has a uniquely vulnerable strategic position. It similar to what Germany faced in WW1

While China cannot easily be invaded, it is easy to cut off from strategic imports like oil. China is very difficult to access going West to East. So China is very depended on sea borne trade.

Look at a map. Geography and alliances give the US Navy and Airforce an unbreakable choke hold on Chinese sea trade any time they want to apply it


2 posted on 01/19/2025 9:34:44 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Don't blame me, my congressman is MTG!)
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To: DUMBGRUNT

If the Red Chinese were going to militarily attack, they would have done it before Trump took office.

The Red Chinese might be planning on nationalizing foreign operations in China because of the attempted takeover of TikTok.


3 posted on 01/19/2025 9:36:48 AM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: DUMBGRUNT
I hope the Chinese aren't stockpiling bananas or avocados. My bananas and avocados go bad overnight.;-)

Whadda mess.

4 posted on 01/19/2025 9:43:51 AM PST by RoosterRedux ("There's nothing so inert as a closed mind" )
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To: DUMBGRUNT

In other words, they have a Chinaman’s Chance.


5 posted on 01/19/2025 9:46:47 AM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: MNJohnnie

WIKI

The Big Inch and Little Big Inch, collectively known as the Inch pipelines, are petroleum pipelines extending from Texas to New Jersey, built between 1942 and 1944 as emergency war measures in the United States.

the Big and Little Big Inch pipelines were 1,254 and 1,475 miles (2,018 and 2,374 kilometres) long respectively, with 35 pumping stations along their routes. The project required 16,000 people and 725,000 short tons (658,000 t) of materials.

The National Tube Company of Lorain, Ohio produced from 137,500 tons of steel the pipe for the 550-mile section between Long View and Norris City in 4 month[s]

The schedule called for 5 miles (8.0 km) of the Big Inch pipeline to be laid each day. But soon men were laying as much as 9 miles (14 km) a day.

Oil began flowing through the Big Inch Line between Texas and Illinois on New Year’s Eve 1942

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Inch


6 posted on 01/19/2025 9:48:43 AM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: Brian Griffin

Import volume: China imported approximately 11.3 million barrels per day of crude oil in 2023.


7 posted on 01/19/2025 9:54:09 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Don't blame me, my congressman is MTG!)
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To: DUMBGRUNT

I saw tin under the cotton hat.../s

Fyi, he’s pimping his patreon post on y/t

https://www.patreon.com/posts/china-has-no-119668367

and oddly doesn’t reference his own webpage

https://zeihan.com/china-has-no-chance/

with no citations/references at any 3 posts whatsoever.

This smacks of ds.


8 posted on 01/19/2025 9:55:40 AM PST by logi_cal869 (-cynicus the "concern troll" a/o 10/03/2018 /!i!! &@$%&*(@ -)
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To: All

The Zeihan guy is safely ignored. This was the same guy who said all Russian oil pipelines would freeze and clog from lack of use by no later than early 2023.

Northeastern China has oil. It’s depleting, but it still flows about 4.5 million barrel/day. Their consumption is over 14 million bpd so they certainly must import. Lots of pipelines from Russia and lots of import ports along the east coast. They can be blockaded, but if that happened they will still have their domestic production and whatever comes from Russia. Now about 1 million bpd. Another 0.5 million bpd from the Kazahkstan pipeline into China.

China won’t starve from any blockade.

China growing production of nat gas. Now at 200 billion cubic meters/year. Consumption is 400. 200 billion cubic meters is pretty much nothing with Russia, the big kahuna of nat gas, next door.

Their oil consumption shows some signs of slowing this year for economic (not EV) reasons, but this has happened before and growth generally resumes. Ditto India.

Bottom line, China needs some imports. They don’t have to get them by sea.


9 posted on 01/19/2025 9:55:43 AM PST by Owen
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To: Brian Griffin

Curiously, all my girlfriends refer to me as the Big Inch.


10 posted on 01/19/2025 9:57:12 AM PST by Lazamataz (The BEST birthday present I ever got WAS DONALD TRUMP WINNING IN 2024!!!)
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To: Brian Griffin
The schedule called for 5 miles (8.0 km) of the Big Inch pipeline to be laid each day. But soon men were laying as much as 9 miles (14 km) a day.

That's because I, too, laid a lot more pipe than they expected.

11 posted on 01/19/2025 9:59:25 AM PST by Lazamataz (The BEST birthday present I ever got WAS DONALD TRUMP WINNING IN 2024!!!)
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To: Brian Griffin

Y’see.


12 posted on 01/19/2025 9:59:46 AM PST by Lazamataz (The BEST birthday present I ever got WAS DONALD TRUMP WINNING IN 2024!!!)
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To: DUMBGRUNT
The Chinese are stockpiling resources - food, fuel, and materials - to help it endure a protracted conflict with the US. Is this something to be concerned about?

No, the west appears to be hell-bent on self-destructing on it's (woke/corrupt) own, but thanks for asking.

13 posted on 01/19/2025 10:06:14 AM PST by RckyRaCoCo (Time to throw them out of the Temple...again)
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To: Owen

IMHO, a major weakness of China is their dependence on the Three Gorges Dam for power, cargo navigation, and protection from floods.


14 posted on 01/19/2025 10:06:54 AM PST by Tell It Right (1 Thessalonians 5:21 -- Put everything to the test, hold fast to that which is true.)
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To: DUMBGRUNT

This posting is much like the old FReepers of 20 years ago informative while being humorous at the same time.


15 posted on 01/19/2025 10:49:26 AM PST by fella ("As it was before Noah so shall it be again," )
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To: DUMBGRUNT

Yes. The PRC economy is cratering -hard- and they have a HUGE problem with too many military age males woth too few females.

Either Xi is removed fast or he invades Taiwan (or Vietnam) as a way of distracting and rallying the public.

I can’t see Xi relinquishing power voluntarily.


16 posted on 01/19/2025 11:07:19 AM PST by Vikon99 (-Yeah, I make very complex things.)
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To: DUMBGRUNT

China has all they need. It is a very resource rich country. They are even 7th place in oil production and could easily improve that at any time.


17 posted on 01/19/2025 11:08:57 AM PST by CodeToad (Rule #1: The elites want you dead.)
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To: Vikon99
"... and they have a HUGE problem with too many military age males with too few females."

That would be marriageable females ... there are plenty of women, but if they are not married by a certain age, they are considered leftover women, and no male would marry them because his family would not approve - without family approval no marriage happens for men or women.
18 posted on 01/19/2025 11:22:00 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: Tell It Right

Good call, I looked it up.

China electric consumption is 9220 terrawatt hours/yr.

Three Gorges output 97 terawatt hours / year.

So not a big %, but maybe the important part of your noting it . . . it’s free power.


19 posted on 01/19/2025 11:47:44 AM PST by Owen
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To: Lazamataz

Still, they use the term “inch”...

Sure they weren’t saying “itch”...?


20 posted on 01/19/2025 11:49:03 AM PST by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; not averse to Going Bronson.)
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