Posted on 01/19/2025 9:29:22 AM PST by DUMBGRUNT
The Chinese are stockpiling resources - food, fuel, and materials - to help it endure a protracted conflict with the US. Is this something to be concerned about?
(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...
No, because China has a uniquely vulnerable strategic position. It similar to what Germany faced in WW1
While China cannot easily be invaded, it is easy to cut off from strategic imports like oil. China is very difficult to access going West to East. So China is very depended on sea borne trade.
Look at a map. Geography and alliances give the US Navy and Airforce an unbreakable choke hold on Chinese sea trade any time they want to apply it
If the Red Chinese were going to militarily attack, they would have done it before Trump took office.
The Red Chinese might be planning on nationalizing foreign operations in China because of the attempted takeover of TikTok.
Whadda mess.
In other words, they have a Chinaman’s Chance.
WIKI
The Big Inch and Little Big Inch, collectively known as the Inch pipelines, are petroleum pipelines extending from Texas to New Jersey, built between 1942 and 1944 as emergency war measures in the United States.
the Big and Little Big Inch pipelines were 1,254 and 1,475 miles (2,018 and 2,374 kilometres) long respectively, with 35 pumping stations along their routes. The project required 16,000 people and 725,000 short tons (658,000 t) of materials.
The National Tube Company of Lorain, Ohio produced from 137,500 tons of steel the pipe for the 550-mile section between Long View and Norris City in 4 month[s]
The schedule called for 5 miles (8.0 km) of the Big Inch pipeline to be laid each day. But soon men were laying as much as 9 miles (14 km) a day.
Oil began flowing through the Big Inch Line between Texas and Illinois on New Year’s Eve 1942
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Inch
Import volume: China imported approximately 11.3 million barrels per day of crude oil in 2023.
I saw tin under the cotton hat.../s
Fyi, he’s pimping his patreon post on y/t
https://www.patreon.com/posts/china-has-no-119668367
and oddly doesn’t reference his own webpage
https://zeihan.com/china-has-no-chance/
with no citations/references at any 3 posts whatsoever.
This smacks of ds.
The Zeihan guy is safely ignored. This was the same guy who said all Russian oil pipelines would freeze and clog from lack of use by no later than early 2023.
Northeastern China has oil. It’s depleting, but it still flows about 4.5 million barrel/day. Their consumption is over 14 million bpd so they certainly must import. Lots of pipelines from Russia and lots of import ports along the east coast. They can be blockaded, but if that happened they will still have their domestic production and whatever comes from Russia. Now about 1 million bpd. Another 0.5 million bpd from the Kazahkstan pipeline into China.
China won’t starve from any blockade.
China growing production of nat gas. Now at 200 billion cubic meters/year. Consumption is 400. 200 billion cubic meters is pretty much nothing with Russia, the big kahuna of nat gas, next door.
Their oil consumption shows some signs of slowing this year for economic (not EV) reasons, but this has happened before and growth generally resumes. Ditto India.
Bottom line, China needs some imports. They don’t have to get them by sea.
Curiously, all my girlfriends refer to me as the Big Inch.
That's because I, too, laid a lot more pipe than they expected.
Y’see.
No, the west appears to be hell-bent on self-destructing on it's (woke/corrupt) own, but thanks for asking.
IMHO, a major weakness of China is their dependence on the Three Gorges Dam for power, cargo navigation, and protection from floods.
This posting is much like the old FReepers of 20 years ago informative while being humorous at the same time.
Yes. The PRC economy is cratering -hard- and they have a HUGE problem with too many military age males woth too few females.
Either Xi is removed fast or he invades Taiwan (or Vietnam) as a way of distracting and rallying the public.
I can’t see Xi relinquishing power voluntarily.
China has all they need. It is a very resource rich country. They are even 7th place in oil production and could easily improve that at any time.
Good call, I looked it up.
China electric consumption is 9220 terrawatt hours/yr.
Three Gorges output 97 terawatt hours / year.
So not a big %, but maybe the important part of your noting it . . . it’s free power.
Still, they use the term “inch”...
Sure they weren’t saying “itch”...?
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