Early voting is surging across the country. It’s unclear who benefits

Los Angeles Times ^ | Oct. 25, 2024 3 AM PT | Seema Mehta

[E. Pluribus Unum]

• Nearly 30 million Americans have voted, more than a week ahead of election day.
• Experts caution that early voting numbers do not allow them to predict who will win.

HENDERSON, Nev. — After Katie Kern and her father, Robert Kern, cast their ballots for former President Trump in this suburb of Las Vegas, they said they wanted to make sure their vote was counted in the critical battleground state of Nevada so that the Republican would retake the White House.

“I’m probably more of a last-minute voter, but I wanted to vote earlier this year to make sure that it had time to get in the system, rather than the last-minute thing that seems to be an issue,” said Katie, a 40-year-old voice teacher, after voting at a Boys & Girls Club.

Robert, 66, who works in real estate, added that he planned to shuttle family members to early voting locations because of how tight the presidential contest is between Trump and his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, and how Nevada could tilt the outcome.

“Their votes matter,” he said. “Every single vote matters here in this state.”

The Kerns are among the nearly 30 million Americans who have already cast ballots in the Nov. 5 election as of Thursday morning, according to a University of Florida tracker of early voting. Of the voters who have returned mail ballots or voted in person, Democrats are outpacing Republicans, with 41.9% of ballots cast by registered Democrats in states that require voters select a party preference, compared with 35.3% by Republicans and 22.8% by people who support minor parties or do not have a party preference.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

I think it prevents them from switching votes or using your ID.

There are lots of horror stories about people going to vote on election day only to be told their ballot voted Democrat weeks ago.

[JerseyDvl]

I live in New Jersey where it seems my vote never matters but I’ll be voting early as well.
Too much can happen on that crazy day.

[TalBlack]

Since it’s “unclear” I’m guessing Trump’s up.

[TexasFreeper2009]

If Republicans use the data on who has already voted to target their GOTV effort exclusively to those who haven’t voted yet, this should benefit us.

If they sit on their hands and just assume we will also turn out on election day as well as early... yeah.. that wont turn out well.

[ModelBreaker]

Early voting helps the GOTV effort. You can take the already voted out of the database and focus on getting the rest out to vote.

Changes the financial and volunteer cost of GOTV hugely.

[Republican Wildcat]

Democrats were able to track who had already voted and then concentrate on turnout on those who had not. Republicans did not did that have advantage as the push was for “election day only voting.” So GOTV at a huge disadvantage comparatively.

Another one is that some people who intend to vote can get ill, run into bad weather, have an emergency, or just plain forget. Enough to make a difference in a close race.

[catnipman]

early voting is a major sign of enthusiasm, so if PUbs are way ahead of Dems in early voting, that’s a VERY bad sign for the Dems ...

[Zathras]

Yep, if it looked good for Harris, they would be the first to report it.