Two Weeks to Go, but Only One Way to Stay Calm

The New York Times ^ | Oct. 22, 2024, 5:05 a.m. ET | Kristen Soltis Anderson

[E. Pluribus Unum]

“Keep calm and throw it in the average” is the best way for a voracious consumer of polling data to stay sane this election season. The ups and downs that can come from seeing your preferred candidate pingpong back and forth, from day to day, become less stressful when placed into context — even when this presidential election is remarkable for just how little bouncing there has been in the polls on average.

To put this year’s post-Labor Day race into some historical polling context, I looked at how much one frequently cited polling average, that of RealClearPolitics, has moved going back through the 2008 election. (I’m relying on the RealClearPolitics average for this exercise, despite the excellent polling average published by The Times, because it’s the only one I found that goes back for that many presidential cycles. It’s worth noting that, as I write this, both averages show the head-to-head race as Harris 49 percent, Trump 48 percent.)

In 2008, shortly after Labor Day, John McCain actually held close to a three-point lead in national polls, but by Election Day, things had swung heavily toward Barack Obama, with the RealClearPolitics average showing Obama leading by around seven points — a 10-point range of results over the course of about two months. In both 2012 and 2016 you can see the average shift by a few points during the final two months. In 2012, it goes from a substantial lead for the Democratic candidate, Mr. Obama, to a near tie with his opponent, Mitt Romney. In 2020, a race in which Joe Biden consistently led in the national polls, the polling...

[HeadOn]

Yeah. I think you’re probably right. Saves money, time, and effort if they can screen at least some things.