TRUMP AHEAD IN 5 OUT OF 6 SWING STATES/ AND THE 6TH IS REALLY A TOSSUP
Posted on 10/17/2024 7:18:32 AM PDT by zeestephen
This is NOT a voter poll - This is a Gambler Money poll - Individual state betting - Pennsylvania: Trump 59% - Kamala 41% - Michigan: Trump 56% - Kamala 44% - Wisconsin: Trump 56% - Kamala 44% - Nevada: Trump 50% - Kamala 50%
(Excerpt) Read more at polymarket.com ...
Meanwhile, at the University of Arizona in Tucson,
https://x.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1846765826432487847
The gambling markets have no added value — for the pretty much simple reason that they move with polls.
When new polls come out, watch how they move. Instantly.
No added value.
The odds are even worse for "Presidential Popular Vote Winner."
Kamala 64% - Trump 36%
There is significant betting on the Popular Vote - $73 million
In 2020 - excluding California and New York state - Trump actually won the Popular Vote in the other 48 states and Washington D.C. - by 37,000 votes.
I keep trying to understand why anyone would vote for Harris.
But…..
I think…..
No matter how good of a person you are and no matter how smart you are or how experienced you are…..
You just can’t make sense out of senseless behavior.
TRUMP AHEAD IN 5 OUT OF 6 SWING STATES/ AND THE 6TH IS REALLY A TOSSUP
So a lot like 2020. Unless we stop the steal it doesn’t matter.
What should be noted is how much they have swung to Trump in the last couple weeks. After the debate the odds were on Kamala winning. Now they have moved from a toss up to Trump in a UGE way. They changed again overnight after her poor performance with Bair.
I disagree.
Almost every national and state poll show the race is too close to call, or they slightly favor Kamala.
Gamblers are the ONLY poll that emphatically predict that Trump will win.
Will the Gamblers fumble 2024 like they fumbled 2016?
We will know in 19 days.
And printed weekly magazines with her picture as winner on the cover.
Wow.....
Newsweek, iirc.
I wonder when and how often RCP updates their betting averages? Rather out of date now.
While we all hoped, did anyone seriously believe Trump would win in 2016?
Most everyone I know and knew didn’t.
I’d probably have put money on cankles too.
They had to shift 15 % of votes from Trump to Biden, and have ‘2000 mules’ dump votes into drop boxes, and that STILL was not enough- they had to close down 4 places and manufacture 4 million votes at 4AM.
They did the same, just not enough, for HilLIARy. Trump just overwhelmed it.
Maybe I was completely off in Fantasy Land, but I thought he was going to win. I also didn’t watch the news or pay attention to polls, so that probably helped.
I too expected Trump to win. Did you also notice one of the 1st states stolen in 2020 and obvious to many on election eve? Virginia!
One other issue...
Polymarket completely dominates USA election betting revenue.
Polymarket is always in the 80%-90% range.
Another issue...
Election betting is against the law in the USA.
Polymarket trades only in Crypto currencies.
That means Polymarket has the overwhelming majority of American gamblers, who have deeper USA political insight than international gamblers.
She’s riding the bicycle with Toto in the back.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.