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The Global Baby Bust: Why aren’t people having babies?
Sherwood ^ | 10/14/2024 | Millie Giles

Posted on 10/14/2024 11:07:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Global Baby Bust

Why aren’t people having babies?

Cutting across language, geography, and culture, one societal trend is beginning to loom larger than any other: falling birth rates.

10/13/24 8:00AM

For a large part of the last century, after a post-war baby boom saw 76 million births over just 18 years in the US alone, fears of overpopulation were rife.

In 1968, Stanford entomologist Paul Ehrlich published the landmark book “The Population Bomb,” which posited that overcrowding was not only the cause of many of the era’s issues, but would eventually lead to dystopian outcomes of famine, pollution, ecological disaster, and possibly even societal collapse.

Per Vox, it took the human population hundreds of thousands of years to hit its first 1 billion (in the year 1800); it took 128 years to hit the 2 billion mark; then just 32 years to add the next billion (1960). Cut to the present day and there are ~8.2 billion people in the world, and counting. While Ehrlich may have been onto something, the “bomb” he predicted never exploded. In fact, what we’re currently seeing is closer to an implosion. Now, in nearly every developed country in the world, birth rates are plummeting.

Baby bottleneck

The global total fertility rate — measured as the average total number of births per woman (if she lives to the end of her child-bearing years) — has more than halved since 1970 to just 2.25 in 2023, according to the World Population Prospects 2024 from the United Nations. The replacement rate, or the birth rate theoretically required for a natural population to replace itself from one generation to the next, is generally accepted to be ~2.1 births per woman. Any higher than this and the population grows; any lower than this and the population shrinks.

The UN report, published in July, stated that overall, “Women today bear one child fewer, on average, than they did around 1990,” and projected the world’s population to peak at about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before starting to gradually decline.

So, for now, the global population is still growing. But that worldwide viewpoint masks what is expected to be a very different experience from country to country. Indeed, The Lancet estimated that, by 2050, more than three-quarters of countries worldwide will not be able to sustain their population size over time. Let’s look at some specific cases, starting with the United States.

Here’s looking at you, kids

America’s total fertility rate hasn’t been at the replacement level of 2.1 since 2007, after peaking in the late ’50s during the baby boom, and stood at 1.62 in 2023, by the UN’s count.

Though people do tend to have fewer kids when economic times are tough, it’d be hard to blame the baby shortage on the inflation woes of the last few years, considering that this trend has been decades in the making. More significant, it seems, is the impact of social change on the American public’s proclivity for having kids. Since the 1970s, women’s liberation, equal education, and access to contraception have generally improved in the US, and more women in the workforce means that motherhood typically carries a steeper personal financial penalty.

A White House report from May cited increases in female labor-force participation as one way the US hopes to offset the economic impacts of an aging population.

The role of the American family unit is likely to be a key presence in the minds of voters in the upcoming US presidential election, as opposing stances on reproductive rights, as well as comments about “childless cat ladies,” have made headlines. But the issue is even more pressing in Europe, where the average fertility rate fell to just 1.4 last year, per the UN — well below the replacement level.

Eurotots

Much like the US, the effects of higher parenting costs, changing social structures and attitudes, lost earnings time, and squeezed disposable incomes are playing out across Europe. With an ultralow fertility rate of 1.2 recorded in 2023, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has said that raising the country’s birth rate is a “top priority.” Earlier this week, the UK’s Office for National Statistics reported that deaths outpaced births in the country for the first time in almost 50 years. A recent Guardian article told of villages in Greece where a single birth hasn’t been seen in years.

Nordic countries like Sweden and Finland were long upheld as the gold standard in baby-boosting government practices. Pro-natal policies — like better parental leave, strong welfare services, and childcare support — formed part of the social-policy system known as “the Nordic model,” and these incentives for child-rearing led to a baby bump in Sweden in the early 1990s. But now, even these countries are seeing birth rates slump below replacement level.

In an interview with the Financial Times in January, Finnish demographer Anna Rotkirch outlined that, in spite of government incentives, having children can fall to the wayside of other opportunities for many Nordic adults:

In most societies, having children was a cornerstone of adulthood. Now it’s something you have if you already have everything else. It becomes the capstone.” — Anna Rotkirch

Cross-cultural

What’s so striking about the fertility decline is how widespread it is — it’s not bound by language, culture, or geography, and the speed of the shift has caught governments off guard. Take China as an example. For a long time the world’s most populous country, China embarked on a demographic experiment the scale of which the world had never seen before, rolling out the infamous one-child policy in 1980 in a bid to curb its soaring population.

Now, China has a new population problem. The fertility rate in mainland China is projected to have fallen to about one birth per woman in 2023, less than one-seventh of what it was at its 1963 peak. Not just this, but The New York Times reported this week that alongside “carrot” policies like free college, tax breaks, and IVF support, the Chinese government is also rolling out a “stick” fertility campaign, including knocking on doors and installing pro-family artwork in public places.

Conti-natal drift

The situation in other East Asian countries is compounded by rapidly graying demographics, with some young people citing the added burden of looking after elderly relatives as a barrier to them starting a family. In Japan, where more than 1 in 10 people are aged 80+ years, adult diapers are close to outselling baby diapers, and politicians are scrambling to enact fertility programs. Singapore is encouraging companies to hire older workers after estimates put its total fertility rate below 1.0 in 2023 for the first time ever.

But nowhere is this issue more extreme than in South Korea, which has the lowest fertility rate in the world, reported as just 0.72 last year. Since 2006, its government has tried to address the issue by spending over 360 trillion won ($270 billion) on pro-natal schemes; however, astronomical housing costs, the worst gender pay gap in the OECD, and a mounting anti-marriage counterculture mean that it’s still on track for the country’s population to halve by 2100.

One significant exception to this global trend is Africa, where birth rates remain high. It’s estimated that countries in sub-Sarahan Africa, like Niger and Angola, will contribute over half (55%) of the world’s births by the end of the century. Indeed, as fertility rates fall pretty much everywhere else, Africa’s population is set to double by 2050, according to The Economist.

Twin ideas

Interestingly, as birth rates plummet, the general public can’t decide on whether it’s a bad thing or not. A recent YouGov survey revealed a startling split: 22% of Americans said they didn’t think enough children were being born, while 23% said there were too many.

Economists, on the other hand, are a little more one-minded on the issue, as falling fertility rates spell only one thing in the future: a smaller number of working-age people supporting a larger number of older citizens.

For decades, population growth has been a tailwind to economic growth; in the future, population declines will be a headwind, and one that hits many of the wealthiest countries at the same time. Furthermore, unless these trends are reversed, they will last indefinitely. If a country’s birth rate stays below the threshold at, say, 1.5, it doesn’t mean we go through a few generations of having more old people than young people before reaching a steady state — it means a shrinking population into perpetuity.

The parent trap

While recognizing and addressing fertility issues on a national level can help to avoid extremely low birth rates, in nearly every case — from the US, to Europe, to Asia — interventions to try to make people want to have children seem to eventually fail in the long term.

Today, there’s a growing trend of child-free lifestyles, appealing for some for personal, political, or environmental reasons. One Pew Research study published in July found that 38% of adults aged 18-49 who reported being unlikely to have children cited “the state of the world” as a major reason why, with 26% citing environmental concerns. However, most just said the simplest answer: they didn’t want them.

Ok, buster

Economists have postulated other solutions to the global fertility crisis, including large-scale immigration and promoting longer-term employment. At this rate, though, it seems that a future with fewer young people is difficult to avoid, unless Gen Z decides en masse that procreation is cool.

In generations to come, maybe automation and other forms of AI can help make up for a lack of employees on company floors. That’s not the weird dystopian thing that Ehrlich predicted, but hey, it’s the weird dystopian thing we got.



TOPICS: History; Society
KEYWORDS: babybust; demographics; fertility; population
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1 posted on 10/14/2024 11:07:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

The Covid shot was designed to lower birth rates worldwide.

Millions of people are now sterile because of having received the shot.


2 posted on 10/14/2024 11:14:03 AM PDT by stockpirate (A group of baboons is referred to as a "Congress" of baboons.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I volunteer my ‘services’........Purely on a patriotic level, you understand..............


3 posted on 10/14/2024 11:14:22 AM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: SeekAndFind

I will bet that cost is in the top 2. Mature and intelligent couples have done the math and just cannot accept the debt load and do not want to depend on the government to help them, so they opt out.

Also, the last couple of gens are made up of a good number of narcissists who only care about themselves and that can be verified on TT and other social media posts.


4 posted on 10/14/2024 11:16:13 AM PDT by Resolute Conservative
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To: SeekAndFind

The birth rate when down initially because birth control use became popular. After years of use, some women decided they were ready to have babies, and lo and behold, they have trouble either getting pregnant or keeping pregnancies. Cause and effect.

Throw in a guilt complex that there are too many babies already, and it compounds the problem.


5 posted on 10/14/2024 11:21:26 AM PDT by FamiliarFace (I got my own way of livin' But everything gets done With a southern accent Where I come from. TPetty)
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To: SeekAndFind
The Covid shot was designed to lower birth rates worldwide.

The charts show the trend beginning in the 1960's.

6 posted on 10/14/2024 11:23:57 AM PDT by pfflier
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To: SeekAndFind
The Global Baby Bust: Why aren’t people women having babies?

There, fixed it!

The answer (esp. in Western nations): Because they are "strong and independent" and "don't need no man."

Regards,

7 posted on 10/14/2024 11:24:59 AM PDT by alexander_busek (Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.)
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To: SeekAndFind

“Today, there’s a growing trend of child-free lifestyles”

The average American woman spends $2,327 per year on coffee.

Who wants a child or family when there’s a brown sugar oatmilk espresso waiting for you?


8 posted on 10/14/2024 11:25:59 AM PDT by MNDude
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To: SeekAndFind

Fags, dykes, and trannies don’t reproduce.

Popular culture for the past 50 years has depicted children as an unnecessary evil.


9 posted on 10/14/2024 11:27:11 AM PDT by NorthMountain (... the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed)
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To: SeekAndFind

Other people are annoying. There are too many. I would like fewer other people.


10 posted on 10/14/2024 11:27:31 AM PDT by Sirius Lee (Trump/Vance 2024 or GFY)
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To: SeekAndFind

my government is costing me enough grief...


11 posted on 10/14/2024 11:28:29 AM PDT by heavy metal (smiling improves your face value and makes people wonder what the hell you're up to... 😁)
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To: SeekAndFind
One significant exception to this global trend is Africa, where birth rates remain high.

In 2022, sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 57% (2.8 (2.5–3.3) million) of total under-5 deaths but only 30% of global live births.

And that is why this verse is in the Bible.

“If those days had not been cut short, no one would survive, but for the sake of the elect those days will be shortened."

Just because they are having more babies doesn't mean those babies survive. Add the lack of children here and the death of children there, and you start to see the incredibly horrible future awaiting old people on this planet.
12 posted on 10/14/2024 11:31:24 AM PDT by wbarmy (Trying to do better.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Taxed so heavily to enrich politicians that they can’t afford to raise a child mush less children.

My reframe to almost everything during this election cycle;
From our Declaration of Independence the document that insures our Right to form a government (2 so far);

“when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.”

Is it any wonder that the DemonRAT/RINO installed petty bureaucrats have declared the Declaration to be a subversive(to them) document?


13 posted on 10/14/2024 11:34:47 AM PDT by fella ("As it was before Noah so shall it be again," )
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To: SeekAndFind

My Dad, born in 1916 and an American veteran, worked as a blue-collar worker. He was the sole provider as my mom stayed home and raised us kids. (God, how I miss three scratch made meals per day.) They owned two cars. We lived on half an acre in the suburbs. When my parents died, they left the three of us kids one million dollars each.

In terms of what people earned everything was substantially less expensive. Electricity, cars, medical bills, education, all were within the easy reach of any employed person. Everything has been regulated to squeeze the consumer for more and more money. To take just one example, my parents bought a whole home air conditioner. I don’t recall the cost, but it wasn’t significant. And, here is the best bit, it was still functioning thirty years later when we sold their home. Today, an air conditioner can run $15,000 and you’ll spend about three hundred dollars per year replacing stuff that fails. (Made in China, yes.) One reason the air conditioner is so expensive is for ecological reasons, global warming, don’tchaknow, they keep obsoleting the refrigerant so you MUST buy a new unit every few years. They’ve done something similar with most transactions the average person will make. Moneymoneymoney, all sucked from your pockets.

Now people know every year will cost more than the previous year. This is a huge disincentive to have kids.


14 posted on 10/14/2024 11:35:53 AM PDT by Gen.Blather (Wait! I said that out loud? )
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To: SeekAndFind

Tell that to the Muslims, who are spreading Islan by their higher birth rates as well as the sword.


15 posted on 10/14/2024 11:44:27 AM PDT by Socon-Econ (adi)
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To: All

testosterone levels for men have been dropping. probably due to diet, environmental factors, sedentary lifestyle and stress.


16 posted on 10/14/2024 11:46:18 AM PDT by BipolarBob (I may have flunked high school but the pigeons have accepted me as their leader, so I have that.)
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To: Gen.Blather

Electric water heater costs have skyrocketed due to design mandates. (they now have a heat pump package built-in)


17 posted on 10/14/2024 11:48:12 AM PDT by BipolarBob (I may have flunked high school but the pigeons have accepted me as their leader, so I have that.)
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To: stockpirate

25 years from now, the population of cats in the US will exceed the number of citizens.


18 posted on 10/14/2024 11:52:38 AM PDT by Sgt_Schultze (When your business model depends on slave labor, you're always going to need more slaves.)
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To: stockpirate
But this started long before the Clot shots.

There is something seriously wrong with the entire globe when birth rates fall everywhere.

In one place it can be put down to culture. Even in several.

But worldwide?

19 posted on 10/14/2024 11:53:24 AM PDT by Harmless Teddy Bear ( Not my circus. Not my monkeys. But I can pick out the clowns at 100 yards.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The Covid shot was designed to lower birth rates worldwide.

Millions of people are now sterile because of having received the shot.


20 posted on 10/14/2024 12:03:14 PM PDT by stockpirate (A group of baboons is referred to as a "Congress" of baboons.)
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