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Polymarket - 2024 Presidential Election - Trump 50% - Kamala 50% - $1.9 Billion Wagered
Polymarket ^ | 03 October 2024

Posted on 10/03/2024 9:13:26 AM PDT by zeestephen

This is NOT a voter poll - This is a Gambler poll - Pennsylvania - Trump 52% - Kamala 48% ---- Michigan - Trump 42% - Kamala 58% ---- Wisconsin - Trump 44% - Kamala 56%

(Excerpt) Read more at polymarket.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 10/03/2024 9:13:26 AM PDT by zeestephen
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To: zeestephen

As you say, this isn’t a popularity metric. It’s an “on whom are you willing to put down real money” metric, and it looks like a tossup as far as gamblers are concerned. My gut feeling is that a tossup favors Trump, as his support is generally underestimated.


2 posted on 10/03/2024 9:19:39 AM PDT by irishjuggler
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To: irishjuggler

PA AZ NC and Georgia and Trump wins


3 posted on 10/03/2024 9:27:14 AM PDT by dp0622 (Tried a coup, a fake tax story, tramp slander, Russia nonsense, impeachment and a virus. They lost.)
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To: dp0622

This may be why the Feds are slow walking aid to Western NC. This close to Election Day, how many of those folks will be able to vote?


4 posted on 10/03/2024 9:30:41 AM PDT by maro (MAGA!)
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To: zeestephen

Looks like half the gamblers are going with the candidate who will get the most votes and half the gamblers are going with the candidate who might get the most ballots.


5 posted on 10/03/2024 9:38:35 AM PDT by FreeReign
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To: maro

I dont know those states well but I already thought how many close states will it affect? Only one is needed.

I HATE to be thinking about this while people lives are destroyed.

But we know dems in power are.

There ARE Rs in congress who should be pushing insanely for more aid and fast.

Don’t know if they are or aren’t.


6 posted on 10/03/2024 9:45:15 AM PDT by dp0622 (Tried a coup, a fake tax story, tramp slander, Russia nonsense, impeachment and a virus. They lost.)
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To: irishjuggler

Betting markets are akin to sticking your finger into the wind of current sentiment. They aren’t predictive. Polymarket appears to be large and therefore least vulnerable to the whimsical sentiment from a subset of bettors.


7 posted on 10/03/2024 9:49:40 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist (Government is best which governs least.)
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To: BlueStateRightist

I agree with you...its no different than Stock market sentiment...that can swing wildly in a day based on events and such.

But with that said, I believe this is an improvement in the polymarket odds correct?


8 posted on 10/03/2024 9:52:41 AM PDT by suasponte137
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To: zeestephen; anyone

Michigan SIXTEEN POINT LEAD over Trump?

Good grief that’s awful, thought they were a swing state with near 50-50 constituency, what’s up with that?


9 posted on 10/03/2024 9:59:13 AM PDT by Phoenix8
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To: dp0622
There ARE Rs in congress who should be pushing insanely for more aid and fast. Don’t know if they are or aren’t.

They are all on recess until after the election.

10 posted on 10/03/2024 10:03:11 AM PDT by TheCipher ( RINO politicians in DC are the only reptiles in the world with no backbone)
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To: zeestephen

I’m curious, does the political gambling market include a point spread?


11 posted on 10/03/2024 10:21:50 AM PDT by budj (Combat vet, second of three generations.)
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To: zeestephen

This is NOT a voter poll

But the house always wins who ever that is.


12 posted on 10/03/2024 10:53:49 AM PDT by Vaduz
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To: Phoenix8
16 points is the Gambler's spread.

It is NOT a voter spread.

13 posted on 10/03/2024 11:55:43 AM PDT by zeestephen (Trump "Lost" By 43,000 Votes - Spread Across Three States - GA, WI, AZ)
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To: irishjuggler
Just looking at the polls and how people will vote Trump is by far the favorite.

The unknown is the cheating.

14 posted on 10/03/2024 12:09:54 PM PDT by AndyTheBear (Certified smarter than average for my species)
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To: budj
Re: "Point spread"

I am still trying to understand how the betting works on this website.

Polymarket claims it is exactly like a stock market - a large group of people who will buy or sell at a certain price.

That implies there is a published Bid price (buy) and Ask price (sell), and that trading takes place 24-7, and that new positions are constantly being opened and closed.

I need to do a meticulous search for an educational video on this site, which I have postponed for several weeks.

In general, if the spread is 50%-50%, I assume that means 2 to 1 odds...

You bet $100.

If you win, you get $200.

If you lose, you get $0.

But, that does not explain what appears to be constant trading.

15 posted on 10/03/2024 12:20:59 PM PDT by zeestephen (Trump "Lost" By 43,000 Votes - Spread Across Three States - GA, WI, AZ)
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To: zeestephen

Well yeah.

But the gamblers did not give the other states such a high advantage for team commie.

There must be something they see in the population etc. the odds must be based on something.


16 posted on 10/03/2024 12:43:59 PM PDT by Phoenix8
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To: TheCipher

I always appreciate the people here not calling me an IDIOT for not knowing some extremely basic things that I should know! :)

They just state the facts here and call me an idiot at home lol

And I don’t blame them!

Thanks again.


17 posted on 10/03/2024 12:56:34 PM PDT by dp0622 (Tried a coup, a fake tax story, tramp slander, Russia nonsense, impeachment and a virus. They lost.)
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To: Phoenix8
Re: "The odds must be based on something."

Many of the comments at Free Republic think the Gamblers are betting on Democrat voter fraud.

18 posted on 10/03/2024 4:14:33 PM PDT by zeestephen (Trump "Lost" By 43,000 Votes - Spread Across Three States - GA, WI, AZ)
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To: zeestephen

Not our grandfathers USA , is it?


19 posted on 10/04/2024 7:14:10 AM PDT by Phoenix8
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