Posted on 10/03/2024 9:13:26 AM PDT by zeestephen
This is NOT a voter poll - This is a Gambler poll - Pennsylvania - Trump 52% - Kamala 48% ---- Michigan - Trump 42% - Kamala 58% ---- Wisconsin - Trump 44% - Kamala 56%
(Excerpt) Read more at polymarket.com ...
As you say, this isn’t a popularity metric. It’s an “on whom are you willing to put down real money” metric, and it looks like a tossup as far as gamblers are concerned. My gut feeling is that a tossup favors Trump, as his support is generally underestimated.
PA AZ NC and Georgia and Trump wins
This may be why the Feds are slow walking aid to Western NC. This close to Election Day, how many of those folks will be able to vote?
Looks like half the gamblers are going with the candidate who will get the most votes and half the gamblers are going with the candidate who might get the most ballots.
I dont know those states well but I already thought how many close states will it affect? Only one is needed.
I HATE to be thinking about this while people lives are destroyed.
But we know dems in power are.
There ARE Rs in congress who should be pushing insanely for more aid and fast.
Don’t know if they are or aren’t.
Betting markets are akin to sticking your finger into the wind of current sentiment. They aren’t predictive. Polymarket appears to be large and therefore least vulnerable to the whimsical sentiment from a subset of bettors.
I agree with you...its no different than Stock market sentiment...that can swing wildly in a day based on events and such.
But with that said, I believe this is an improvement in the polymarket odds correct?
Michigan SIXTEEN POINT LEAD over Trump?
Good grief that’s awful, thought they were a swing state with near 50-50 constituency, what’s up with that?
They are all on recess until after the election.
I’m curious, does the political gambling market include a point spread?
This is NOT a voter poll
But the house always wins who ever that is.
It is NOT a voter spread.
The unknown is the cheating.
I am still trying to understand how the betting works on this website.
Polymarket claims it is exactly like a stock market - a large group of people who will buy or sell at a certain price.
That implies there is a published Bid price (buy) and Ask price (sell), and that trading takes place 24-7, and that new positions are constantly being opened and closed.
I need to do a meticulous search for an educational video on this site, which I have postponed for several weeks.
In general, if the spread is 50%-50%, I assume that means 2 to 1 odds...
You bet $100.
If you win, you get $200.
If you lose, you get $0.
But, that does not explain what appears to be constant trading.
Well yeah.
But the gamblers did not give the other states such a high advantage for team commie.
There must be something they see in the population etc. the odds must be based on something.
I always appreciate the people here not calling me an IDIOT for not knowing some extremely basic things that I should know! :)
They just state the facts here and call me an idiot at home lol
And I don’t blame them!
Thanks again.
Many of the comments at Free Republic think the Gamblers are betting on Democrat voter fraud.
Not our grandfathers USA , is it?
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