Posted on 09/05/2024 5:48:24 AM PDT by Red Badger
Historian Allan Lichtman has finally revealed his prediction for the 2024 election winner, after determining that Kamala Harris has met the critical objectives for victory.
The American University professor, 77, has fashioned his own election model that has correctly forecast every presidential winner since 1984.
He relies on an unorthodox system - ignoring the polls and pundits - based on what he calls '13 keys' to the White House, a model he developed in 1981 alongside his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
The model is based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes and even enabled Allan to call Trump's unexpected 2016 victory a month before the election.
He then used his tactic to correctly predict the outcome in the 2020 elections.
Explaining the mysterious 13 keys to the New York Times, Allan said: 'They are 13 big picture, true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party.
The 13 keys include: Midterm gains, incumbency, primary contest, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma, foreign policy failure, and foreign policy success.
Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate needs to lose six of them in order to be declared a loser under the model.
As of last month, she was down only three: having a Party Mandate/Midterm gains, Incumbency, and Incumbent Charisma.'
Two other keys were looking 'shaky' weeks ago: foreign policy and social unrest.
But Allan explained that only two of the 13 keys have anything to do with candidates - incumbent and challenger charisma.
Allan said the White House party gained House seats between midterm elections - stating the Democrats did better than expected in 2022 despite them still losing House seats - meaning the Midterm gains key is false.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
He also predicted the White Sox would win the World Series.
Lichtman is a RAT operative and I believe he hasn’t been right all the time as he claims. Kamala is going down, which is nothing new for her.
Let me know when he predicts the Lions to win the Superbowl...or Buffalo... or the Vikings..........
This is crazy, it’s outrageous, it’s deepstate, it’s, it’s....
Ok, I tried to care. It’s just one guy saying Harris will win.
There were no scandals in the old USSR, Red China, and Castro's Cuba either. When the mainstream media is controlled by the government, dissenters are arrested and jailed, and the majority of sheeple reflexively believe what the telescreen tells them, there will be no scandals.
Didn’t he already predict Biden would win the 2024 election? I’d call that a fail.
He wrongly predicted Algore would win in 2000 and claims ‘Florida screwed up’.............
Trump is more of an incumbent than is Kamalalala.
Allan said the short-term economy - key number five - is strong as it is not in recession rendering the key true.
Most Americans understand that we are in a recession, but the data is being manipulated to make the opposite seem true.
The seventh key - policy changes - comes into play as the White House had made major changes to national policy, said Allan.
While it is true that major changes have been made, none have been beneficial to the country or its citizens.
What? An election denier? Needs to go to prison for that
He also picked the Gators to win the SEC.
Lichtman’s 13 keys are mostly subjective. e.g. he says each of the two keys pertaining to the economy point to the candidate of the incumbent party (Harris) retaining the White House. But, public opinion polls indicate that, by a large majority, people think the economy is performing badly, and that the challenger (Trump) has higher marks on being able to handle the economy.
Ray Fair’s model (also not a poll-based model) is specifically an economic model, with objective inputs and calibrated over a very long period of time. Fair’s model points to a popular vote win by Trump (which, given the tilt in the Electoral College, translates into a comfortable win in the electoral college).
Nostradamus died in 1566. Dead men do not talk.
This is pure BS. No matter who conjures this up.
If Kamala steals the election, blood will flow.
Whore of Babylon ... we have a winner
I don’t see vote fraud on his list. But secretly he probably based his entire decision on it.
First, his record is no better than mine, so I am unimpressed. Second and more importantly, this is nothing but propaganda.
Looks like the professor’s winning streak is about to end.
I totally trust the word of a man whose books include “The Case for Impeachment” (of Trump all the way back in 2017), “Repairing American Democracy After Trump,” “ White Protestant Nation,” and “Repeal the Second Amendment.” No agenda at all. /s
This gives it away. Either he was in on the steal, or he was wrong.
Nostradamus was a fraud.
The problem is the 2020 election. Trump carried GA, for example, if the 13,000 votes that have no voters are removed from consideration. Equivalent cheating in 4 other states adds to the error. He did not ‘call’ 2020, it was a coincidence he is claiming for a ‘win’ that was actually a loss.
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