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MY NOTES ON 70 min UKRAINE WAR VIDEO | Ukr Desperate Kursk Incursion Rus Flag Niu-York, FT Ukr Losing War; Iran Attack After Islamic Summit
8/7/2024 | Alexander Mercouris, vanity

Posted on 08/08/2024 4:27:28 PM PDT by ransomnote

ransomnote: I will post the title of the video below, without a link, in case some here are not aware of the problem with Google's YOUTUBE pages right now. Basically landing on a YOUTUBE page, even if you don't launch a video, can steal your FR password and passwords to any other application you have open. Read more about it on the following Free Republic thread: Google is at it again, new YouTube security threat

Video Title: Ukr Desperate Kursk Incursion Rus Flag Niu-York, FT Ukr Losing War; Iran Attack After Islamic Summit

8/7/2024

ransomnote: I just watched a video update on the war in Ukraine. The first part of the video deals with Iran/Israel.

My notes on the Ukrainian portion of the video begin here:

It's just more of the same, despite the excited talk about a Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory.

These are just more skirmishes that do not change the course of the war: The Ukraine is losing.

There have been incursions (Ukraine to Russia, and Russia to Ukraine) happening regularly for some time. Control of portions of this region (near border) trade back and forth, but always return to increasing Russian control. WHenver the Ukraine performs an incursion into Russian terrain, they are repelled and then Putin holds a meeting to develop the plan to respond to the needs of the public in that area. So Putin met, as he always does, with needed officials to respond to public needs from this latest incursion.

In this most recent, much exaggerated Ukrainian incursion, the only thing that was different was the Ukrainians devoted an entire brigade (4,000), one of the best, mechanized brigades they have left, to this effort. The Russians have up to 100,000 soldiers in that vicinity. The Ukraine's committment to this particular incursion will cost them more than the PR effort was worth.

According to Mercouris, nobody seems to know what purpose this kind of raid serves and that, "Military objectives don't seem to be the point of these operations anymore." These are merely attempts to embarrass the Russians while giving the Ukrainian people a morale boost, but do not change the war. The Ukraine has been very active in attempting to boost public morale lately. The Ukraine received a few F-16's and Zelensky is showing them off in a similar morale campaign.

ransomnote: In a separate video, Mercouris said that the F-16s are older and are not expected to be used at their capability level for months. By that I mean, the Ukraine has used them to bomb a promotory with a lighthouse on it, but that's not head to head combat with other more experienced, better equipped Russian pilots. As to the age of the aircraft, in other posts I linked information showing these are a much older F-16 build that have been upgraded to some extent with a kit. They are donations from other countries which are receiving new F-16's from the manufacturer.

Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR), said two weeks ago that the Ukrainian position along part of the border is deteriorating.

Losing more men in PR efforts was a waste of lives. No, the momentum of the war is not changing.

Mercouris says that the claims that the Ukraine captured 2 or 3 villages is doubtful as there had been no proof by the time the video was recorded. Mercouris expects that Russia will respond as it usually does, by committing more men to the region. To Mercouris this seems unwise for the Ukraine to open another front (Ukraine  has too few troops to spread them out in multiple fronts).

Some Ukrainian commentators are angry about this latest Ukrainian incursion, asking why some of the Ukraine's best soldiers have been sent to fight and die where it will not make a difference to the war, even as the Ukrainian defenses in Donbas collapse.

Even David Axe, a pro Ukraine reporter at Forbes, is skeptical of this latest incursion, sensing it's another mistake on the part of the Ukrainians.

Why did Zelensky and the head of the military, Oleksandr Syrskyi, agree to this incursion (Budanov's idea)? There's been a steady drumbeat of reports that the Ukrainians are planning an operation to recapture the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Russia thinks the number of Ukrainian soldiers in the region of the nuclear power plant are related to the Ukraine's attempt to gain leverage ahead of negotiations. Zelensky's remarks return again and again to the nuke plant. A Russian journalist believes the Ukrainians are trying to divert attention from the fact they are losing a settlement every day. Zelensky realizes 'things are getting hairy' so on the one hand, there are talks of negotiations and on the other hand, Zelensky is trying to strengthen his position ahead of those negotiations.

Mercouris believes this is probably a fair assessment and notes he's seen it before - as someone is losng a fight, they lash out to appear strong. The Ukrainians are likely reassuring themselves they're still able to fight.

But Mercouris returns to the idea these are likely steps to strengthen the negotiating position of the Ukraine. This would mean Zelensky believes that if he recaptures the power plant, he will go into negotiations in the autumn in a stronger position than he would otherwise be. This would reflect feverish desperation, because the reality is, it would have the opposite effect.

(ransomnote: I see a new video by Mercouris today, August 8, stating that the Ukrainians attempted and failed to take control of the nuclear power plant).

With the Ukrainians launching more attacks into Russian territory like this, not only will it encourage the Russians to open another front line in the Sumy region, something the Ukrainians should try to avoid, but far from persuading the Russians that negotiations are a good idea, it's going to convince the Russians that the Ukrainians are unacceptable, and impossible, negotiating partners.

There was an article about this in Investia, an important Russian newspaper, which was published before the latest Ukrainian incursion was underway. The Russians are extremely skeptical about negotiations with Ukraine and doubt they can afford to negotiate with them. The opinion of the writer is that Zelensky is saying he's ready for negotiations at the end of the year while his true and only objective is to save his own skin. This balancing act is attributed to the unknown as yet outcome of the American elections in November. Zelensky's talk of a second peace summit, this time inviting the Russians, are contrary to the actions of the Ukrainian military. According to the article, Zelensky's goal is not saving Ukraine and Ukrainians; Zelensky's goal is only concerned with his own future, and the future of his family. He doesn't care what happens to Ukraine.

Mercouris cites another Russian columnist who says that Zelensky's objectives have not changed in the past 2 years, despite his talks of a peace summit. Peace talks are out of the question as long as Zelensky has a decree in place forbidding negotiations with Russia. The writer said that since Putin has said that Zelensky is not the legitimate leader of Ukraine (Zelensky's term expired earlier this year and he canceled elections), negotiations should take place with another in the Ukraine. He notes that Zelensky could cancel his decree, assuming Washington would allow this.

ransomnote: I forgot about the decree. Here's an excerpt from October 2022:

https://www.commonspace.eu/news/zelensky-signs-decree-formally-ruling-out-negotiations-putin

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a decree formally stating that Ukraine will refuse to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin, while still leaving open the prospect of talks with Russia under a different president.  

The decree, signed on Tuesday (4 October), officially formalises Zelensky’s comments on Friday (30 September) that Ukraine is ready for dialogue “but with another president of Russia”. 

Mercouris is developing the impression that, based on the recent incursion and the possible attack to recover the nuclear power plant, peace with the Ukraine is not possible while it continues to be lead by its current government. So if the Ukraine's recent moves  were intended to strengthen its position in negotiations, what it actually achieved is likely that negotiations won't take place at all. Above and beyond that, it's likely to cause more loses in the Ukrainian military and is likely to lead to a further RUssian operation in Sumy region. Lastly, this incursion further thins out the Ukrainian front line. A Ukrainian military leader said the action was intended to thin out the Russian front line, but the Ukrainians generally admit that the Russians have no shortage of manpower.

So, once again, it is the Ukrainians who are diverting resources into adventures which in the end, are not going to play out to their advantage.

Although there is a lot of excited talk about the Ukrainian incursion, it's most likely going to end the same way the Belgorode operation ended - the Ukraine temporarily occupied, the Russians re-inforced and took it back and now that region is a new front. ALso, it will be used as justification for Russia to conduct a long feared operation in the Sumy region, which will further increase the crisis the Ukrainians face in the Donbas region.

In Donbas, the Russians published a picture of the Russian flag flying over the school building in the Ukrainian village, New York or Nui York (named thus in the 1850's). Raising the flag doesn't mean the Russians have complete control, but when raised, it means the conflict is winding down. An article in the NYT said Ukraine's position in the Toresk region was taking a desperate turn.

ransomnote: Here's an excerpt from that NYT article:

SNIP

The brigade allowed us to accompany them recently to view the destruction of Toretsk up close and the challenges Ukrainian forces face as they battle to keep control of the city. The only restrictions were that we not provide specific locations or other operational details that could compromise security.

“The most important task for Ukrainians is to survive,” said Maj. Artem Osadchiy, 28, the commander of a drone battalion with the 32nd. “For the Russians, it is to wipe out this Ukrainian city.”

In that, the Russians are succeeding.

Recent gains by Russian forces have expanded an arc of destruction across eastern Ukraine that began at the outbreak of the full-scale war in February 2022 and has intensified in recent months.

The loss of long-held Ukrainian defensive positions outside Toretsk and inside New York, a smaller town a few miles to the south, underscored the growing strains of unrelenting Russian attacks and devastating aerial bombardments are placing on Ukrainian forces.

Mercouris touches on the names of other villages now falling under Russian control (I can't spell them based on phonetics). He said there's no sign that the Russians are 'running out of steam,' despite the assertions of a quoted Ukrainian soldier to the contrary.
 
Mercouris notes that the Financial Times admitted recently (ransomnote: good article) that there is deterioration along the Ukrainian front lines. He said it's the first time the Finanicial Times, or any big, mainstream British publication admitted that the war is going badly for Ukraine.
The article notes that Kyiv's forces liberated roughly 321 square kilometers between June and September of 2023 (averaging 24 sq kilometers each week). Russia's offensive this year has erased those captures- between May 3 and August 2 of this year, Russia has seized about 592 square kilometers (averaging 45+ square kilometers per week).
Mercouris notes a fundamental falacy in judging the progress of the war in terms of square kilometers of territory. Brian Berletic, Alex Veshign (sp?), Douglas Macgregor, Scott Ritter, Daniel Davis, Alex Christoforu, and Mercouris himself have repeatedly said this is fallacious reasoning. Russia is conducting a war of attrition - therefore the scale of Ukrainian losses is a better measure. The comparators are flawed (date ranges are wrong)- the Russians captured more territory in 2023 than did Ukraine.
In 2024, the Russians have captured, or are in the process of capturing (here Mercouris lists about 6-8 villages with names I can't spell) and if they complete the capture of the more recent fighting, then the situation in the Ukraine will go from critical to existential.
 
Add to that, the enormous losses of the Ukrainian military - 115,000 men over the last two months (June and July) according to Sergei Shoigu
Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. (ransomnote: Mercouris notes the origin and uses numbers despite potential bias when the  numbers seem to be the most accurate available and supported by other sources, but may still be wrong) The Ukrainians have also lost vast amounts of resources in the fighting.

Therefore, Mercouris says, the situation for the Ukrainians is much worse than stated in the NYT article. The article notes the Ukrainians are outmanned and outgunned and their forces are spread thin. The Russians have taken advantage of Ukrainian miscommunications and bungled troop rotations, which Mercouris attributes to battered united being redeployed; the Ukrainian army has suffered such servere losses that it can't rotate its troops properly.

Mercouris has been saying for weeks that the tempo of the Russian advances is increasing, and he says this is due to the long-term effects, upon the Ukrainian army, of Russia's war of attrition.

Franz-Stefan Gady (associate fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think-tank in London) said the Ukraine's shortage of manpower (primarily infantry) is the most immediate reason for Russia's rapid advances.
 
Mercouris says for those who've been following the journalists and commentators listed earlier in this video, this update holds no surprises. But, for readers of the Financial Times, this news will be distressing.
 
ransomnote: Mercouris has said in earlier videos that the elites in Europe read the Financial Times, and that publication often reflects their own views.
 
Mercouris feels that the articles pave the way for greater admissions that the Ukraine is losing the war.

He points out the word 'peace' was not used in the FT article; the word 'negotiations' was used, but in his view, the implication is that negotiations would be conducted on Western terms.
 
He notes that there's still no admission in the article that Russian advances have the potential to become an existential threat to the Ukraine.
 
He says until/unless there are serious moves by Western powers to negotiate, the situation in Ukraine will go from bad to worse.
 
He believes that, as we've seen in the Ukrainian's latest incursion, the Ukraine is incapable of conducting a serious approach to negotiations. At this point in the war, it should be obvious to the Ukrainians they can't throw the Russian army off balance in its war footing, although they can surprise the Russians from time to time - but Russia doesn't panic or become disorganized. This incursion may have put an end to the possibility of negotiations.



TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: areyouloggedin; googleismeanies; heilputlerfanclub; putinpufferparade; ransomnut; trusttheplan; vanity; wwg1wga; zeepersindenial; zeepersoutraged

1 posted on 08/08/2024 4:27:28 PM PDT by ransomnote
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To: ransomnote
Mercouris is one of several great sources of information and analysis on the Ukraine issues, and modern geopolitics.

I don't like his attitude on Netanyahu, whom I have strongly supported for decades, but that's what we have to be these days: discerning and discriminating (the latter word used to have a positive connotation, before the woketards and Newspeakers ruined it).

2 posted on 08/08/2024 4:35:59 PM PDT by rfp1234 (E Porcibus Unum)
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To: ransomnote
There is a channel called Weeb Union where he describes the day to day battles along the Ukraine/Russia contact line.

He was saying that the Russians had been trying to stealthily remove mines from that part of the border in anticipation of leading another intrusion into Ukraine. However, the Ukrainians got wind of the mine removal and decided to take advantage and launch their own offensive.

This might have just been an opportunistic assault that may eventually backfire on the Ukrainians if they can't backup their initial gains or fall back before the Russians go after them.

3 posted on 08/08/2024 5:34:27 PM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear (Kafka was an optimist.)
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To: ransomnote

Alexander said today that over 600 or the initial Ukraine force of 1000 have been eliminated since the start of attack. Also a quite large Ukraine reserve force of maybe 10,000 troops along the Russian border are being attacked. Heavy equipment losses inflicted on Ukraine.

https://youtu.be/wKAJLG3pgLc?si=UfXLug84Roa5QJJ3&t=1682


4 posted on 08/08/2024 5:46:23 PM PDT by Karl Spooner
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To: Karl Spooner

Heavy equipment losses inflicted on Ukraine.
————-
I saw geo located video of two M1 tanks, one burning another abandoned…..and more than a dozen Bradley’s and a few MRAPs destroyed.


5 posted on 08/08/2024 8:10:31 PM PDT by delta7
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To: delta7

I try to find the same videos on Rumble. YouTube has an avalanche of Scamala and Vindman pop-up ads begging for $, and I’d rather not give hits to Scroogle.


6 posted on 08/08/2024 8:28:22 PM PDT by rfp1234 (E Porcibus Unum)
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To: ransomnote

[Iran Attack After Islamic Summit]

I tried to get the end date on that but my phone gave me all old information


7 posted on 08/08/2024 9:28:09 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: ransomnote

Scotland Yard is investigating a disgraced London barrister turned pro-Putin commentator for allegedly forging a letter from the first female head of the Supreme Court.

Alexander Mercouris is said to have forged the signature of Baroness Hale, the President of the Supreme Court, on a bogus document as part of his attempts to fool a former client.

Lorna Jamous accused Mr Mercouris of fraud following “appalling” behaviour towards her in a case which led to him being disbarred.

The 56-year-old was struck off by the Bar Standards Board (BRB) in 2012 after making a series of bizarre claims about the then Lord Chief Justice of England and Wales.

Lorna Jamous says Mr Mercouris caused her psychological and financial damage after lying to her in an action she brought against Westminster Council when her son was taken into care for a year.

Lorna Jamous says she felt “betrayed” by Mr Mercouris
Lorna Jamous says she felt “betrayed” by Mr Mercouris Credit: Geoff Pugh/The Telegraph
In October 2009 Mrs Jamous was offered a £5,000 settlement by the council over the treatment received by the then 10-year-old.

However, she says Mr Mercouris persuaded her to turn down the offer, claiming he had managed to get the settlement increased to £983,000.

When Mrs Jamous began questioning Mr Mercouris as to why the money had not materialised he embarked on what the Bar Standards Board (BSB) later described as a series of “bizarre assertions to hide the truth”.

To convince Mrs Jamous he had obtained the huge settlement he showed her a letter purporting to be from Baroness Hale, expressing concern that the payment had not arrived.

The letter turned out to be a forgery.

Baroness Hale of Richmond, President of the Supreme Court
Baroness Hale of Richmond, President of the Supreme Court Credit: PA/Supreme Court
He then made what the BSB described as “the most peculiar allegation” of all, that bogus police officers kidnapped him and took him to a meeting with Lord Phillips of Worth Matravers, the then Lord Chief Justice of England and Wales.

Mr Mercouris claimed Lord Phillips had pleaded with him to drop the case in exchange for a £50,000 bribe and that he had threatened to have his 102-year-old grandmother put into a care home.

At a BRB hearing in March 2012 Mr Mercouris, a former Citizens Advice Bureau worker who was called to the bar in 2006, was struck off and banned from practicing law.

In mitigation he said he had had been diagnosed with depression after a nervous breakdown due to the strain of caring for his sick grandmother, and that he was “very sorry” for what he had done.

Mrs Jamous, 53, a beautician, never received any payment from Westminster council as a result of Mr Mercouris’s botched handling of her case.

Within a few years, however, he had managed to reinvent himself and become a commentator on world affairs for Russian TV news outlets and websites.

This led to him being regularly interviewed by the news channel RT, which is funded by the Russian government, about topics such as the Ukraine crisis, the defection of US whistleblower Edward Snowden and the conflict in Syria.

He is also Editor-in-Chief of an English language pro-Russian website The Duran.

But Mr Mercouris’ past is now threatening to catch up with him. Following a complaint from Mrs Jamous the Metropolitan Police has decided to investigate allegations of fraud and misconduct in a public office against him.

An officer from the Met’s Professional Standards Unit contacted Mrs Jamous last week, stating: “I can confirm that we are re-investigating your allegation of Fraud against Mr Mercouris. Once all of the actions have been completed the case will be reviewed and I hope will then be referred to the CPS for their consideration.”

Ms Jamous, who is also suing Mr Mercouris for £200,000 over his handling of her case, said: “I am very pleased that the Met finally appear to be taking the matter seriously. In order that me and my son can move forward with our lives we needed this assurance.”

Mr Mercouris said: “I’m told the investigation is in its early stages and I’m told by the police I will not be interviewed or required to give evidence. I absolutely deny any allegations. Ms Jamous knows that at the time I had mental health problems. It happened when I was severely ill and not in my right mind.”


8 posted on 08/08/2024 10:40:18 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Karl Spooner

UKR force level 75,000.

Look closely at this video of the feared, dreaded Wagner Mercenaries on road E38 in the territory formerly known as Russia., having been visited by Mr. HIMARS:
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1821804091112354156


9 posted on 08/09/2024 5:15:16 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: Alter Kaker

Annnnnnnnnnnnd he’s still more accurate than Ukrainian shills and their media outlets. If his information were not accurate in regards to the Ukraine, I wouldn’t post it. But it is the BEST available, so I use it.


10 posted on 08/09/2024 5:39:52 AM PDT by ransomnote (IN GOD WE TRUST)
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To: Alter Kaker

Well, I guess that’s all for Mr. Mercouris. Maybe he and Scott Ritter can share a cell. /sarc


11 posted on 08/09/2024 7:12:07 AM PDT by ichabod1 (#notmypresident #resisttyranny #resisttranny)
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