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'Vicious cycle': US office vacancy levels hit record high — are we on the precipice of an 'urban doom loop?'
Moneywise via MSN ^ | 06/12/2024 | Serah Louis

Posted on 07/12/2024 7:20:59 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

The national office vacancy rate hit a record 19.8% in the first quarter of 2024, according to a preliminary report from Moody’s Analytics.

And it could get worse, as companies continue to lease substantial space despite a decline in the in-office footprint.

The 'urban doom loop' cycle

While the shift to remote work in recent years offers plenty of flexibility to employees, some experts have concerns the decline in office building usage could spell a more sinister problem for big cities.

“Everybody’s affected by this issue,” Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a professor of real estate at Columbia Business School, told CNN.

Van Nieuwerburgh, previously dubbed "the prophet of urban doom" by The New York Times, notes that declining office property values leads to lower real estate tax revenue, which means cities have to slash spending.

“When cities cut spending, cities become a less attractive place to live and people leave — and that aggravates the problem, We get into this vicious cycle that I’ve called the ‘urban doom loop.’”

In New York City, office vacancy levels have topped 20% since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020, reports CNN, citing data from the NYC Comptroller. Census Bureau data shows the city’s estimated population slumped from 8.80 million to 8.34 million between April 2020 and July 2022, a drop of roughly 468,000 residents — which represented nearly 5.3% of the city’s total population.

Van Nieuwerburgh told The New York Times last year that if office values decline in proportion with usage, city revenue from property taxes could plunge billions of dollars a year.

“So this is a train wreck in slow motion,” he said. “The second shoe has yet to drop.”

Are office-to-residential conversions really the answer?

Some experts believe converting vacant office buildings into residential apartments could revitalize a dying downtown core

(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: biden; bidendestroyseconomy; bidenomics; commercial; office; realestate; realty; vacancy
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1 posted on 07/12/2024 7:20:59 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Not to worry. BlackRock/CCP will buy it all up for pennies on the dollar.


2 posted on 07/12/2024 7:22:45 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (The worst thing about censorship is █████ ██ ████ ████ ████ █ ███████ ████. FJB.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Turn them into Airbnbs.


3 posted on 07/12/2024 7:24:24 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (If President Trump loses, ALL AMERICANS LOSE. Vote like your life depends upon it. Because it does.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I wonder how many can be turned into decent apartment or condo buildings? Maybe prisons with jump off balconies for those that would like to save the taxpayer more incareration costs.


4 posted on 07/12/2024 7:31:43 PM PDT by Reno89519 (I'll go out on a limb: Trump & Gabbard 2024 or Trump & Sanders 2024)
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To: SeekAndFind

I am currently looking for work in the tech sector and have noticed quite a shift in the remote work job postings over the last 3-4 months. The one sector where people could work 100 percent remotely is the one insisting they come back to the office, particularly in the Bay Area and Seattle.


5 posted on 07/12/2024 7:32:15 PM PDT by ponygirl (Stay gold.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Homeless high-rises

It has a nice ring to it.


6 posted on 07/12/2024 7:34:14 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: SeekAndFind

Making room for the Fifteen Minute cities.


7 posted on 07/12/2024 7:39:36 PM PDT by Huskrrrr (Alinsky, you magnificent Bastard, I read your book!)
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To: SeekAndFind

We always laughed at tv news. They always used night scene hi-rise backdrops on the set. All colorful and pretty looking...Then ya get down on the streets and it looks like Armageddon, complete with zombies.


8 posted on 07/12/2024 7:43:43 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: SeekAndFind

A I is already starting to replace many white-collar paper pushing jobs.


9 posted on 07/12/2024 8:18:06 PM PDT by fella ("As it was before Noah so shall it be again," )
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To: SeekAndFind

original moneywise article without the tsunami of crap on msn web pages:

https://moneywise.com/real-estate/american-office-vacancy-levels-hit-record-high


10 posted on 07/12/2024 8:28:15 PM PDT by catnipman ((A Vote For The Lesser Of Two Evils Still Counts As A Vote For Evil))
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To: ponygirl
The one sector where people could work 100 percent remotely is the one insisting they come back to the office, particularly in the Bay Area and Seattle.

Some people in any discipline apparently need to be in the office. Recently, a bunch of Wells Fargo remote workers were fired when the company discovered that their work consisted of software that simulated key strokes and mouse movement so the workers themselves could do what they pleased. Some people simply cannot be trusted with remote work.

11 posted on 07/12/2024 8:31:33 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (FBI out of Florida!)
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To: SeekAndFind; FRiends

‘Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh’

Who or what is this? And we should care about their opinion because...? ;)

Listen! Every square INCH of unoccupied Real Estate across the land IS going to be needed to house ILLEGALS.

Didn’t Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh get the Memo from Brandon?


12 posted on 07/12/2024 8:35:09 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have, 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set. )
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

They will get them for Pennie’s on the dollar, get special permitting for high density apartments, then get tax dollars to house illegals. Where else will 50 million illegals live? They “deserve” free luxurious accommodations for all the benefits they are bringing to America,,,, and voting democrat.


13 posted on 07/12/2024 8:59:40 PM PDT by Organic Panic (Democrats. Memories as short as Joe Biden's eyes)
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To: SeekAndFind
On the precipice of an 'urban doom loop'?

No, we've been in an urban doom loop since the 1940s. Cities no longer serve industries nor residents. The riots in the 1960s weren't the beginning, they were after the end - riots by recent arrivals since the industries and earlier residents had already departed.

The few industries that still operate in a city are by necessity and run at a severe loss. If not for taxpayer subsidies, even more cities would be dismantled.

-Accommodation
-Accommodation and Food Services
-Administrative and Support Services
-Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services
-Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
-Air Transportation
-Ambulatory Health Care Services
-Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries
-Animal Production
-Apparel Manufacturing
-Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
-Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing
-Broadcasting
-Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers
-Chemical Manufacturing
-Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
-Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing
-Construction
-Construction of Buildings
-Couriers and Messengers
-Credit Intermediation and Related Activities
-Crop Production
-Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services
-Education and Health Services
-Educational Services
-Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing
-Electronics and Appliance Stores
-Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
-Finance and Insurance
-Financial Activities
-Fishing, Hunting and Trapping
-Food Manufacturing
-Food Services and Drinking Places
-Food and Beverage Stores
-Forestry and Logging
-Funds, Trusts, and Other Financial Vehicles
-Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores
-Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing
-Gasoline Stations
-General Merchandise Stores
-Goods-Producing Industries
-Health Care and Social Assistance
-Health and Personal Care Stores
-Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction
-Hospitals
-Information
-Insurance Carriers and Related Activities
-Internet Publishing and Broadcasting
-Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing
-Leisure and Hospitality
-Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets
-Machinery Manufacturing
-Management of Companies and Enterprises
-Manufacturing
-Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods
-Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods
-Mining
-Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
-Miscellaneous Manufacturing
-Miscellaneous Store Retailers
-Monetary Authorities - Central Bank
-Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries
-Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
-Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institutions
-Natural Resources and Mining
-Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing
-Nonstore Retailers
-Nursing and Residential Care Facilities
-Oil and Gas Extraction
-Other Information Services
-Other Services
-Paper Manufacturing
-Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries
-Personal and Laundry Services
-Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing
-Pipeline Transportation
-Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing
-Postal Service
-Primary Metal Manufacturing
-Printing and Related Support Activities
-Private Households
-Professional and Business Services
-Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
-Publishing Industries
-Rail Transportation
-Real Estate
-Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
-Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations
-Rental and Leasing Services
-Repair and Maintenance
-Retail Trade
-Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation
-Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities
-Service-Providing Industries
-Social Assistance
-Specialty Trade Contractors
-Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores
-Support Activities for Agriculture and Forestry
-Support Activities for Mining
-Support Activities for Transportation
-Telecommunications
-Textile Mills
-Textile Product Mills
-Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
-Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation
-Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
-Transportation and Warehousing
-Truck Transportation
-Utilities
-Warehousing and Storage
-Waste Management and Remediation Services
-Water Transportation
-Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers
-Wholesale Trade
-Wood Product Manufacturing
-
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14 posted on 07/12/2024 9:04:15 PM PDT by T.B. Yoits
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To: SeekAndFind

I remember Rush saying this back in 2020. Why live in the super expensive city or commute into NYC 5 days a week when you can work from home and still get the same amount of work done.


15 posted on 07/12/2024 9:07:55 PM PDT by matt04 ( )
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks
I keep hearing this excuse, mostly coming from micromanagers. If someone is using keyboard tech to simulate working, then who is doing their work? Perhaps these positions are redundant and they don't need to exist? In my industry, if I miss a deadline, then I better have a good reason. Keystrokes aren't going to design and lay out catalogs, build websites, design email templates, design ad campaigns, or create social media images and posts. I either get the work done — regardless of whether that's at home, in an office, or in a coffee shop — or the work doesn't get finished.

When I did work in an office, I didn't mind it, mostly because I didn't have a long commute, but I also had a door and a window overlooking a mountain. I kept the door closed and my music on. Some people thought I was antisocial, but you know what? I don't go to the office to be social when I have a dozen overlapping deadlines. What I cannot tolerate is working in a cubicle with noise all around me, people feeling like it's their right to barge in and interrupt, and annoying neighbors who put their meetings on speaker.

16 posted on 07/12/2024 10:31:08 PM PDT by ponygirl (Stay gold.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
if office values decline in proportion with usage, city revenue from property taxes could plunge billions of dollars a year.

You can always spot a leftist because they have zero understanding about how the real world works. Demonrats just raise the tax rates, their solution to every problem.

17 posted on 07/12/2024 10:51:25 PM PDT by Reeses
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To: SeekAndFind

Despite all the bluster and all the headlines, no, a lot of people are not returning to the office. There’s no benefit to them for doing so and there are massive downsides. Companies are just going to have to get used to it.


18 posted on 07/13/2024 2:12:41 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: ponygirl

I work in banking. The vast majority of jobs in this sector could be 100% remote as well. I’ve managed to stay 100% remote but it has definitely gotten more difficult in the last year and a half.


19 posted on 07/13/2024 2:14:10 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: ponygirl

Ding! The big banks all have people mostly working in cube farms in big buildings. You hear the phone conversations and regular conversations of all kinds of people around you. I used to have to put my headphones in and listen to music (classical or gregorian chant usually) to try to drown out the noise so I could get some work done.

Oh, and your cube was not your own. You had to reserve a spot each day 2 weeks in advance at several of them (”hoteling” so they can maximize cube usage).

Frequently the other people on the teams I would be working on including my bosses were scattered all over the US and I wouldn’t even have one team member in the same city.

But I’ve just GOT to come into the office for that???? I’ve got to commute 45 minutes each way, pay a minimum of $15 per day to park not to mention gas, food, drinks, etc and I’m some kind of spoiled slacker if I don’t? LOL! In the words of Doctor Evil “how about no?”


20 posted on 07/13/2024 2:20:58 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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