ChatGPT Predicts...Biden Win?

ChatGPT ^ | 07.02.2024 | ChatGPT/dware

[dware]

2024 Presidential Election Odds and Electoral Votes

Based on recent polling data and the number of electoral votes for each state, here is an updated analysis of the 2024 Presidential Election, including the electoral votes and the total number of electoral college votes each candidate is likely to have based on the current odds.

Electoral Votes and Odds by State

• Alabama (9 EV): Trump 70%, Biden 30%
• Alaska (3 EV): Trump 65%, Biden 35%
• Arizona (11 EV): Trump 48%, Biden 42%^[1]
• Arkansas (6 EV): Trump 65%, Biden 35%
• California (54 EV): Biden 65%, Trump 35%
• Colorado (10 EV): Biden 55%, Trump 45%
• Connecticut (7 EV): Biden 60%, Trump 40%
• Delaware (3 EV): Biden 65%, Trump 35%
• Florida (30 EV): Trump 52%, Biden 48%
• Georgia (16 EV): Trump 45%, Biden 41%^[1]
• Hawaii (4 EV): Biden 70%, Trump 30%
• Idaho (4 EV): Trump 70%, Biden 30%
• Illinois (19 EV): Biden 60%, Trump 40%
• Indiana (11 EV): Trump 60%, Biden 40%
• Iowa (6 EV): Trump 55%, Biden 45%
• Kansas (6 EV): Trump 60%, Biden 40%
• Kentucky (8 EV): Trump 65%, Biden 35%
• Louisiana (8 EV): Trump 65%, Biden 35%
• Maine (4 EV): Biden 55%, Trump 45%
• Maryland (10 EV): Biden 65%, Trump 35%
• Massachusetts (11 EV): Biden 70%, Trump 30%
• Michigan (15 EV): Trump 46%, Biden 43%^[1]
• Minnesota (10 EV): Biden 45%, Trump 45%^[1]
• Mississippi (6 EV): Trump 65%, Biden 35%
• Missouri (10 EV): Trump 53%, Biden 40%^[1]
• Montana (4 EV): Trump 60%, Biden 40%
• Nebraska (5 EV): Trump 65%, Biden 35%
• Nevada (6 EV): Trump 48%, Biden 45%^[1]
• New Hampshire (4 EV): Biden 55%, Trump 45%
• New Jersey (14 EV): Biden 60%, Trump 40%
• New Mexico (5 EV): Biden 55%, Trump 45%
• New York (28 EV): Biden 65%, Trump 35%
• North Carolina (16 EV): Trump 52%, Biden 48%
• North Dakota (3 EV): Trump 65%, Biden 35%
• Ohio (17 EV): Trump 55%, Biden 45%
• Oklahoma (7 EV): Trump 65%, Biden 35%
• Oregon (8 EV): Biden 60%, Trump 40%
• Pennsylvania (19 EV): Trump 47%, Biden 45%^[1]
• Rhode Island (4 EV): Biden 65%, Trump 35%
• South Carolina (9 EV): Trump 60%, Biden 40%
• South Dakota (3 EV): Trump 65%, Biden 35%
• Tennessee (11 EV): Trump 65%, Biden 35%
• Texas (40 EV): Trump 55%, Biden 45%
• Utah (6 EV): Trump 65%, Biden 35%
• Vermont (3 EV): Biden 70%, Trump 30%
• Virginia (13 EV): Biden 55%, Trump 45%
• Washington (12 EV): Biden 60%, Trump 40%
• West Virginia (4 EV): Trump 65%, Biden 35%
• Wisconsin (10 EV): Trump 47%, Biden 44%^[1]
• Wyoming (3 EV): Trump 70%, Biden 30%

Total Electoral College Votes

Trump: 251 electoral votes

Biden: 287 electoral votes

Note: This analysis includes states where Trump and Biden have strong leads and the states that are closely contested. The total electoral votes are based on the current odds and polling data. These numbers may change as new polling data becomes available and as the election approaches.

Sources

RealClearPolitics

270toWin

Race to the WH

[bigbob]

I don’t object as another data point, but will repeat that AI has been trained on historic data, a lot of which is anti-Trump because it is created by the anti-Trump media that dominates the internet where AI models are trained.

Just apply your own good brain and move on, no point in attacking the messenger.

[hole_n_one]

Good job!

[Old Retired Army Guy]

This prediction splits the electoral votes in every State. Aren’t a lot of the States “Winner Take All”?

[Reno89519]

Thank you! I haven't had time to go ask it questions yet today. But I just took a short break to do so...

I just asked ChatGPT 4o two questions using PERT, please provide estimates on Biden (1) Resigning and (2) Dropping Reelection at several upcoming dates.

Results:

For Biden Resigning:

• By July 4th: Minimum 10%, Maximum 30%, Most Likely 20%, PERT Estimate 20%
• By July 7th: Minimum 15%, Maximum 35%, Most Likely 25%, PERT Estimate 25%
• By the start of the Republican convention: Minimum 25%, Maximum 55%, Most Likely 40%, PERT Estimate 40%
• By the start of the Democrat convention: Minimum 35%, Maximum 65%, Most Likely 50%, PERT Estimate 50%

For Biden Abandoning Reelection:

• By July 4th: Minimum 15%, Maximum 35%, Most Likely 25%, PERT Estimate 25%
• By July 7th: Minimum 20%, Maximum 45%, Most Likely 30%, PERT Estimate ≈ 30.83%
• By the start of the Republican convention: Minimum 30%, Maximum 60%, Most Likely 45%, PERT Estimate 45%
• By the start of the Democrat convention: Minimum 40%, Maximum 70%, Most Likely 55%, PERT Estimate 55%

[bigbob]

An interesting question to put to AI would be something like what is the trend in the presidential election winner after the first debate? Also, what is Joe Biden’s history over his career when it comes to reversing his position on important issues?

[Reno89519]

Add to that, didn’t some states agree to cast their electoral votes in alignment with other states?

[lee martell]

When the Bias is baked into the cake.

[jjotto]

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi?

Brave AI won’t fact check itself? It’s just mainstream media lies at hyperspeed, with better PR. Anyone see a problem here?

[dware]

Based on analysis of all 50 states and current polling headlines, give me the odds that either candidate will win a given state in percentage form. Be sure to analyze news headlines for all 50 states, and include each state in your reply.

With a follow up of

Based on your last reply, regenerate the response and include how many electoral votes for each state and the total # of electoral college votes each candidate will have based on these odds and #'s.

[dware]

I’ve been asking the same question since the debate. The morning after, it was 50/50. By that afternoon, it was 60/40 in favor of Biden being replaced. This morning, it was 45/55 in favor of Biden remaining. I find the addition of “by certain dates” interesting.

[Reno89519]

A lot of what-if analysis is possible, and can really suck up time. A few days ago I started asking questions, re-phrasing them, and next thing I realized I had spent nearly three hours.

[alloysteel]

ChatGPT AI is a very sophisticated computer program. But like every other computer program, the same problem dogs the operations. Garbage In, Garbage Out, known as GIGO, relates to the data feed, and skewed data provides skewed results.

Human data collection comes from many sources, the AI may be from only a very few or perhaps even just one source, and whatever the bias of those sources, in a larger number, the bias tends to cancel out. In any very small number of sources, the bias can get very extreme, especially when the feed is carefully selected to support or deny specific opinions disguised as “fact”.

[mmichaels1970]

Well, I typed in the numbers, just as you had them, and came up with this

I had Trump at 301 assuming all states "winner take all" and maybe I missed a few somewhere. Your numbers or mine, I don't see how the listed data concludes "Binden win?"

[rightwingcrazy]

My Magic 8 Ball predicts a Don Jr. win. “Signs point to yes”. It’s never wrong.

[bosco24]

NEWS ALERT!

AI/ChatGPT has determined that 3 + 4 = 12

AI is here to stay. Might as well learn it and make myself useful in the AI age.

[griffin]

BTTT for future reference.

Thanks for the post.

[ConservativeWarrior]

Even AI is stupid and cant count it seems.

---

ChatGPT was trained with woke BS data. Garbage in, garbage out. It’s nothing new, but is worshipped like a demi-god by the left.

If you ask it to write a paper on why climate change is a hoax it will produce a lecture, chastising those who doubt the “settled science.” It’s trash.

[mware]

Tell you right now Biden is not going to win by 20% in NJ. Right now Trumpis winning NJ by 2 points.

[dware]

the same problem dogs the operations.

This is the biggest reason I say that AI is not yet anywhere near "becoming aware" and it likely never will, as it will always require input from humans in one way or another. In my experience over the last year plus, I've noticed a lot of things about the AI "bias". Truth be told, I can get a varied response to just about any question, all depending on how I phrase the question. I can also get varied "biases", again, depending on my input, such as a more Conservative bias, if I want it. For example, I recently performed a scan of FR and asked CGPT to frame its responses based on the posts and replies. I then took the results and had AI format them into a 30 min podcast script. Then I shot it over an AI text to speech app and created an entire podcast. In total, it took about 12-15 minutes. Most of that time was spent waiting for the given AI app to do its thing.

[dware]

Tell you right now Biden is not going to win by 20% in NJ. Right now Trumpis winning NJ by 2 points.

From your lips to God's ears! I was just thinking about that this morning. We live in interesting times where NJ & NY appear to very much be in play.