The Democrats who are actually running the country (Obama's crew?) will use carrots and sticks to get Biden to withdraw. Carrots would be a pardon for Hunter, dropping all further charges against him, an "honorable" departure, a pleasant retirement, and silence on his family's corruption. Sticks would be the opposite. Kamala would be his replacement for several reasons. First, she will be easy to control. Second, bypassing her would disaffect all their major constituencies. Third, she would have access to all the money Biden has raised. Anyone else would have to start raising funds from scratch. Fourth, they need her to be on board with the plan.
If Jill refuses to play ball, they will make life very difficult for her. For about a week, maybe two. They'll let it be known to all WH staff that Joe is gone and Jill just needs to receive the message and they are to ignore any instructions she gives, and that if they don't play along, their careers will be over. If that doesn't work then they'll invoke the 25th Amendment, and Kamala will become Acting President, giving her some degree of gravitas and tapping into the honeymoon phase voters usually grant to someone who is "forced" to take over in "emergency" situations.
Another option would be if Joe-Jill agrees to resign. If Joe-Jill gets on board they can frame it as passing the torch on to the next generation, with Kamala having gained the necessary experience over the last 3 1/2 years. If Joe-Jill decides to bow out now, and resign, he can give a Reaganesque goodbye speech, resign for the good of the country, and Kamala can have several months of actually being president, instead of just Acting President, before the election and before her own term begins. Joe-Jill will go down in history as preparing the country for the first woman president, and actually making it happen. Barack will gin up all the enthusiasm they’ll need to get her elected, and he'll still be in control. If Joe-Jill agrees to this, it has the added benefit of not putting her in the position of having betrayed Joe-Jill.
They recognize that this is risky, but I think they may do it because they think it is the only hand they have to play. If so, all of this will happen before the convention so they can have the excitement and celebration kick-off of the new campaign at the convention.
I see the 25th as a convoluted and messy option. Not good for Dems, Repubs and the country.
To make it even more interesting, cabinet members serve at the pleasure of the president. He can fire them at any time.
So if a president gets a hint that a 25A action might be on the way, he could immediately fire the all cabinet members whom he perceives to be disloyal. Then what?
I suppose the only remedy then would be impeachment.
If Mike Johnson doesn’t at least superficially pursue the 25th, he could be justifiably accused of abdication.
I don’t believe it’ll come down to the 25th being invoked, in a few weeks it will be announced that Joe has died, in bed with Jill, and the last words his broken-hearted wife heard were, “It’s Trump’s fault”.
Do you think North Korea, China, and Russia are having internal discussions about what to do in the next 7 months?
Silence speaks volumes in the Constitution. If no mention then no right to vote. It clearly states:
“If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.”
Ford did not pic a new VP based upon the precedent set by Truman following the death of FDR. I believe as acting president he could have though.
I have a better idea. They could take Joe for a car ride far out into the country on a seldom-travelled road and leave him miles away from the nearest human being.
the problem with Kamala becoming acting president under the 25th is, the black vote come November. Recall 2019 - black men were put off with her background as a prosecutor and black women didn’t identify with Kamala as being part of ‘the struggle’ - Corey Booker consistently polled higher. Hillary by contrast, could lean on Bill’s popularity with the black voter and Biden could lean on Obama’s record. Bringing into question - Would Kamala’s role as Acting President become a dead-end, an exercise in futility; is she a viable candidate at all? Is the only game Dems have left is to maintain the statusquo, let Biden lose, bank the presidential election fund, and then revive the ‘stolen election’ memes of 2016?
Here's the kink in the timing of this.
If this "other body as Congress may by law provide" is created (but not yet formed for a 25th amendment invocation), it must be done a law signed by the President.
If the Vice President does not have the support of the Cabinet to invoke the 25th amendment and appeals to the Congress to pass a law creating some other body by law, only Biden can sign that bill because Harris is not Acting President yet.
This law would have to be passed to be applied to a future President. Pelosi floated the idea of passing a law defining an alternative 25th amendment body during President Trump's administration, but that went nowhere.
-PJ
Reasonable thoughts.
More frightening.
Harris is shot - by a MAGA hat wearing white male racist redneck Christian pig carrying AR15 when she arrives outside an abortion clinic to make a pro-Lqwerty speech She resigns - “for her health”
Newsome is crowned VP.
Biden resigns “because of his health.”
Late to this thread but my reading of the history of the 25A indicates it was primarily driven by the aftermath of the JFK asassination, when there was confusion about how exactly the transition from JFK to LBJ was to happen.
I think this is the primary reasoning behind the 25A, to clarify what happens following the death of the president and how a new Vice President is named.
My thinking is despite his obvious issues it is clear that removal of Biden via the 25A would be a heavy lift. The Dems could probably threaten removal via the 25A but if Joe correctly reads this threat than it gets ugly really quickly.
To me it still boils down to Joe has to decide to step down himself and whatever threats the rest of the Democrats make against him and his campaign are pretty empty.
I think the old bastard is just too damn stubborn (and full of poor judgement) and he is going to stay in.