Posted on 01/21/2024 4:51:10 AM PST by MtnClimber
What will the death of the green energy illusion look like? From time to time (see, for example, here and here) I have described a vision where some state or country runs headlong into a “green energy wall” — an impassable barricade of physical impossibility, characterized by scarcity and blackouts, into which the country crashes suddenly. Among the net zero zealot countries I have identified as the leading candidates for imminently hitting such a wall are Germany and the UK.
But perhaps, instead of a sudden crash, the demise of the green energy illusion will look more like a slow but steady decline, a gradual withering of economic activity and prosperity. In this scenario, high energy prices brought about by energy restrictions drive important industries out of business and, as good jobs disappear and energy prices increase, the people gradually and inexorably get poorer. Recent events in the UK and Germany seem to point in the direction of this type of scenario.
The latest edition of the [Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)] GWPF’s Net Zero Watch Newsletter has the headline “Net Zero is dying.” (Go here and follow the link for your own copy of the newsletter. Full disclosure — I am on the board of the American affiliate of the GWPF.). Nine linked news articles from the past couple of days all deal with recent instances of industrial decline in the UK and Germany, each one a consequence of energy prices intentionally driven upward in the pursuit of “net zero.”
Several of the pieces cover the impending closure of the Port Talbot steelworks in Wales, with the loss of up to 2,500 jobs. Illustrative is a January 19 piece in the Daily Telegraph by Allison Pearson, headline “Port Talbot has been sacrificed to the angry god of net zero.” Although the Telegraph is behind paywall, the NZW Newsletter has a lengthy excerpt. Here is a part:
The high price of UK energy makes Port Talbot uncompetitive. . . . [N]et zero. That absurd and misanthropic creed . . . calls British workers losing their jobs “progress” while their carbon will now be emitted in India and China. . . . [The UK will now be] the only G7 nation with no first-class steel manufacturing – are they serious? You might almost get the impression the nation was run by a fifth column plotting its downfall.
In another item in the current Newsletter, GWPF points to its own warnings of what was coming from 2016 and 2021. From 2016:
“As an energy-intensive manufacturer of internationally traded commodities, the steel sector is particularly sensitive to energy costs. It is the first to feel the pain of the UK’s climate policies, but it will not be the last. [Steel] and the energy-intensive sector more broadly can be regarded as a miner’s canary, giving early warning of general economic damage as the costs of climate policies are passed through from energy to all other sectors of the economy."
And from 2021:
[T]he underlying and fundamental cause [of the ongoing closure of the steel industry in the UK] is the uncompetitiveness of all heavy industry in the UK, and for this government is itself largely to blame. GWPF has long predicted that Britain's unilateral climate policies were making it all but impossible to operate heavy industry the UK.
Elsewhere in the Newsletter, the focus is Germany. A January 19 piece from the Times of London has the headline “What’s gone wrong with Germany?” Again it’s behind paywall; but the overall picture is a combination of self-inflicted consumer pain and equally self-inflicted industrial decline brought about by senseless mandates and high energy prices from the so-called “energy transition.” Excerpt:
The coalition has been plagued by unforced errors, typified by a hugely unpopular attempt to force homeowners to install heat pumps instead of gas or oil boilers. It has been riddled with public infighting and has presided over the worst economic performance in the G7.
That Times article does not go into detail on the industrial decline. But for some specifics consider this piece from July 13, 2023 from Politico, headline “Rust Belt on the Rhine.” Example:
Chemical giant BASF has been a pillar of German business for more than 150 years, underpinning the country’s industrial rise with a steady stream of innovation that helped make “Made in Germany” the envy of the world. But its latest moonshot — a $10 billion investment in a state-of-the-art complex the company claims will be the gold standard for sustainable production — isn’t going up in Germany. Instead, it’s being erected 9,000 kilometers away in China. . . . [BASF] is scaling back in Germany. In February, the company announced the shutdown of a fertilizer plant in its hometown of Ludwigshafen and other facilities, which led to about 2,600 job cuts. . . . [T]he company lost €130 million in Germany last year.
The explanation? From Politico:
Confronted by a toxic cocktail of high energy costs, worker shortages and reams of red tape, many of Germany’s biggest companies — from giants like Volkswagen and Siemens to a host of lesser-known, smaller ones — are experiencing a rude awakening and scrambling for greener pastures in North America and Asia.
Politico notes that in the 15 years since the 2008/09 recession, the U.S. economy has grown by some 76%, while the German economy has grown by only 19%. Oh, that is the same period of Germany’s “Energiewende,” which has included forcing electricity prices to go to triple the U.S. level.
For the big picture of the German industrial situation, here is a chart from YCharts.com, showing the trend over the last 5 years:
After you eliminate the steep Covid-induced valley of 2020-21, you are left with a decline that is steady and inexorable.
Frankly, the UK and Germany would be better off hitting a hard wall, which could wake them up in time to potentially turn things around. The current situation of steady ongoing decline is inflicting damage that may well not be reversible. Even if energy prices suddenly come down in the UK by a factor of 3 or more, is anyone going to re-build Port Talbot once it has been dismantled?
Net zero may be dying, but so are the economies of the UK and Germany. I just hope that the U.S. can be rescued in time.
When will people wake up and realize that “Climate Change” is a marxist hoax?
Manhattan Contrarian ping.
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Wind and solar are narcissistic energy. They are like:
“I’m going to show up when I feel like it and when I’m here, I’m amazing, I’m the best. I’m the lowest carbon, I’m the cheapest. And if you have criticisms of me, well, they’re not true. That’s up to you to fix. That’s a your problem.”
Of course they realize it.
If they were still in the dark, Deep States (plural) wouldn’t have to steal elections, would they?
Like when you cannot even afford fish and chips.
the very best solar energy product is simple, and can be found nearly everywhere. easy to use and can be adjusted for the required energy needs incrementally. also cooks, cools air,cleans air, and anyone outside of an HOA can have one. it’s called a tree.
Net-Zero is like trying to cure a non-existent cold by introducing Anthrax into one’s system - the “cure” is when the organism dies...
I think all of these scams, Net zero, climate change, etc., were not meant to last. They were meant to be around long enough for the globalists to wrest all power from the hands of the people to be placed in the hands of the various governments around the world, which they would then control. Once this end was achieved, all these hoaxes could be discarded, and their traces erased down memory holes.
But, dammit, once the masses have had a taste of free will it is difficult to get them into shackles.
And this American ‘MAGA’ movement simply refuses to die!
We will only be "greener pastures" if President Trump gets re-elected. It's shocking anybody would consider the USA "greener pastures" with the utterly insane energy policy here. Our energy policy is no different than Germany's -- we are just committing economic suicide at a slower pace.
>> “You might almost get the impression [GB] was run by a fifth column plotting its downfall.”
News flash... many Western countries absolutely ARE run by fifth columns plotting their downfall. The US is one of them. The collapse of capitalism is a feature, not a bug.
>> But, dammit, once the masses have had a taste of free will it is difficult to get them into shackles.
Especially true when the masses are armed.
Que Dire Straits’ Telegraph Road
>> Like when you cannot even afford fish and chips.
Whether or not you can afford it, the State will proscribe the “fish” and leave you with the “chips”. Because animal rights and climate change.
How about Bugs and Chips, although the chips may have to go. Farmers. Oh, and I forget, is racism against the Irish still a thing or are they now white privilege?
A more likely scenario is to ordain natural gas and nuclear “green” and continue spouting their nonsense
Arguments for Green Energy are always based on Rated Output (cost pre Kilowatt/hr if operating 100% of the time) instead of cost per Real Output.
But if Green Energy were cost compared to fossil or nuclear energy in a real world comparison it would become obvious that it is not able to compete. Take away government funded incentives and no one would ever invest in Green Energy.
Hey! The Irish are White aren’t they (you will have to excuse me for capitalizing White)? Even the Black Irish.
There is no reason they can’t be the recipient of White Privilege and the discriminated against for being Irish. The Irish are still Irish (Filthy Catholic Papist)
/S
After we have destroyed traditional systems replacing them with new, untried, ineffective and failed net zero ones we will be without and have to rebuild. We will wish we had saved the old instead of destroying it because the new will cost a hell of a lot more on top of the wasted cost, time and effort of net zero. In addition, we will suffer being without or with a whole lot less and much more expensive power. Those who harvested the ample net zero subsidies will be lounging and laughing from the Cayman's or back to the hog trough for the rebuilding.
Net zero is driving the participants back to the stone age, driving business to non-participant locations where business as usual but more efficient is taking root. Net zero is a massive transfer of power, wealth, independence and well being with no improvement toward the net zero fool's goals.
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