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Can Trump Really Win in 2024?
The American Spectator ^ | December 17, 2023 | David Catron

Posted on 12/18/2023 10:01:09 AM PST by freddy005

It has long been obvious that the Democrats badly want Donald Trump to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. This may seem counterintuitive in light of a recent spate of polls showing the former president leading Joe Biden, but this is primarily an artifact of the latter’s weakness. The most reliable polls show Trump bumping up against a ceiling of about 47 percent of the popular vote, which is consistent with his performance in the last two elections. Moreover, in order to win in the Electoral College, he must recapture several swing states Biden narrowly won in 2020 — and that will be more difficult in 2024 than it was in 2016 due to the metastasis of mail-in voting.

The RealClearPolitics average shows Trump leading Biden in general election polls by 3.5 percent. It’s not enough. In 2020, Biden was able to avoid a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College by a mere 42,918 votes in three states (10,457 in Arizona, 11,779 in Georgia and 20,682 in Wisconsin). Trump won these states in 2016 and is now outpolling Biden in all of them. In a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, for example, “President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and — for the first time since tracking began in October — Michigan.” This sounds bad for Biden, but few of these states have viable systems for ensuring the security of mail-in ballots. A new poll conducted for the Heartland Institute by Rasmussen Reports illustrates why this matters:

(Excerpt) Read more at 1ft.io ...


TOPICS: Conspiracy; History; Local News; Society
KEYWORDS: 2024election; democrats; republicans; trump
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To: central_va

you can’t win in a system that is fixed against you. Knowing this, I will still be voting for him, but I’m not sure if I will for my house rep.


41 posted on 12/18/2023 11:04:21 AM PST by BigFreakinToad (Remember the Biden Kitchen Fire of 2004)
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To: rexthecat

Unless the vote was overwhelmingly in favor of Trump, I don’t think he can win.


Even if overwhelming - they just shove the batches of ballots through the machine more times in more places.


42 posted on 12/18/2023 11:05:04 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: BigFreakinToad

I think Trump will beat the built in margin of fraud(MOF). I think the MOF is around 8-10% varying state to state.


43 posted on 12/18/2023 11:06:07 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: central_va

I hope your right, but I’m not holding my breath.
Besides, if he doesn’t end up with the J6 people or whatever the other judicial farces that he is facing, he will be facing a Democrat house and Senate. He will be a lame duck from day 1.


44 posted on 12/18/2023 11:08:29 AM PST by BigFreakinToad (Remember the Biden Kitchen Fire of 2004)
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To: BigFreakinToad

Trump will have huge coattails win or stolen.


45 posted on 12/18/2023 11:09:21 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: freddy005

Trump really stepped in it this time! It’s all over for him now! #48,345,978


46 posted on 12/18/2023 11:11:09 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (The worst thing about censorship is █████ ██ ████ ████████ █ ███████ ████. FJB.)
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To: freddy005

This is a smart, clear-eyed assessment...


47 posted on 12/18/2023 11:19:52 AM PST by Demiurge2 (Define your terms!)
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To: Verginius Rufus

90/10


48 posted on 12/18/2023 11:22:00 AM PST by stanne
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To: Chad C. Mulligan

Wisconsin is off the map. Feckless Ronna Romney minion RPW Chair Brian Schimming and Never Trump Speaker Robin Vos are doing all they can to hobble Pres. Trump


49 posted on 12/18/2023 12:20:40 PM PST by slapshot ( - Get woke go broke-l)
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To: freddy005

The state legislatures & courts allowed voter fraud in 2020 & 2022, which cost Trump & other candidates to lose elections they otherwise would have won. This problem persists.


50 posted on 12/18/2023 12:44:37 PM PST by JesusIsLord ( )
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To: Chad C. Mulligan

Wisconsin is off the map. Feckless Ronna Romney minion RPW Chair Brian Schimming and Never Trump Speaker Robin Vos are doing all they can to hobble Pres. Trump


51 posted on 12/18/2023 12:48:12 PM PST by slapshot ( - Get woke go broke-l)
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To: freddy005

In a fair election it’s Trump in a landslide, but the deep state will stop at nothing to keep Trump out of the White House. There will be a concerted effort to have Trump jailed before the election on one or more of the phony charges made against him. Of course the same election cheating we saw in 2020 will be redoubled. However, Biden is physically and mentally failing and many Democrats want him replaced on the ticket. The choices for a Biden replacement are very poor. Kamala is a no starter. Newsom has a record of failure in California and Whitmer is a shrill harpy. Of course Hillary is always scheming to run again,but that ship has sailed. Michelle Obama hasn’t chance.
I would hope for a Trump win but, the deep state is so threatened by his re-election that even assassination is not out of the question.

The unanswered question is will the millions of Americans who will vote for Trump in 2024 sit idly by if another election is stolen and sock puppet Biden is back in the White House. I won’t speculate on what might happen, but I could see things get very ugly.


52 posted on 12/18/2023 2:16:51 PM PST by The Great RJ ( )
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To: Chad C. Mulligan
Prevent the 2020 fraud in those key electoral college states and he wins hands down.

This.

53 posted on 12/18/2023 2:20:54 PM PST by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no other sovereignty.")
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To: freddy005

The Democraps are gearing up for an October surprise conviction, that will give RINOs reason to vote for Biden or stay home. The conviction will be overturned on appeal after the election, but it won’t matter.


54 posted on 12/18/2023 2:54:19 PM PST by OrioleFan (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, Democrats believe every day is April 15th.)
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