Even though I know it will happen eventually, I am loathe to predict the downfall of Xi and the CCP without hard intel, which I DON'T have access to. I put out updates to inform and NOT to say, "Look how smart I am." I would love to see the raw take on this from the Agency (NSA) but that ain't happening. I'm not sure I would trust CIA.
Xi's problem here is that he has removed anyone capable of challenging him from both the national and provincial CCP leadership. This has created a cult of personality that would have made Mao blush. No one around him is willing to bring him bad news for fear of getting purged.
Since he has removed capable leadership the decisions are all up to him. Running a country bigger than Andorra is beyond the scope of any one person's ability.
This means that decisions are being made by INCAPABLE people mostly doing what they think (guess) Xi would want done. This leads to things like people in hazmat suits and spray wands disinfecting an airport runway during China's COVID lock down.
I will see if I can find enough info on this that I feel confident enough to put out a Broken China Update. Don't hold your breath though.
WWG1WGA
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
On its face Xi now has the opposite problem of not enough managment structure underneath him, but as you indicate, the real problems is his self created problem resulting in structure is being removed or falling away due to the risk in providing honest contrary advice that he needs to hear.
"C. Northcote Parkinson, (born July 30, 1909, Barnard Castle, Durham, England—died March 9, 1993, Canterbury), British historian, author, and formulator of “Parkinson’s Law,” the satiric dictum that “Work expands to fill the time available for its completion.” A relatively obscure academic prior to the enunciation of his “law,” which first appeared in an essay in the London Economist in 1955, Parkinson later devised a second law, “Expenditure rises to meet income,” detailed in The Law and the Profits (1960)."
I understand there’s actually Four or Five ‘Families’ that run China. ....Xi is the front man but carries quite a bit of clout.
LP
Not sure if you watch laowhy86 on YouTube (China stuff).
Recent video about the high speed rail system:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMrLr3qAeIM
RS
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At least they're more useful than "Community activists" in the USA.