Why Iran and Afghanistan are headed to war

Transcript
0:00 · some actions have an end but no
0:03 · beginning some begin but do not end it
0:06 · all depends upon where the Observer is
0:08 · standing on May 27th tensions on The
0:12 · Afghan Iranian border boiled over near
0:15 · the city of zaran two people were killed
0:18 · two more were injured but while both
0:20 · sides quickly de-escalated the situation
0:23 · the incident highlights a deeply
0:25 · entrenched border dispute one that
0:27 · predates both governments yet this is no
0:31 · conflict over territory instead the tap
0:34 · rout of Afghan Iranian tensions is and
0:37 · always has been water rights since the
0:40 · 1870s water access in the syan Basin has
0:44 · formed a geopolitical friction point the
0:47 · Locust is the Helman river which runs
0:49 · through Afghanistan before terminating
0:51 · in eastern Iran the past few decades
0:54 · have seen rainfall drop precipitously
0:57 · the hamon Lakes once a civilization
1:00 · cradle are bone dry and now climate
1:03 · change threatens to convert the region
1:05 · into a permanent Dust Bowl the crisis is
1:08 · a force multiplier for a host of
1:10 · political sore points border security
1:12 · issues Refugee flows islamist militancy
1:16 · and illicit Goods trafficking all add to
1:18 · a lingering sense of unease mistrust and
1:21 · anxiety it remains to be seen whether
1:23 · these differences can be resolved by
1:26 · diplomatic means or otherwise Nations
1:29 · have gone to War for less one thing we
1:32 · do know water is more than just a bunch
1:34 · of atoms it possesses the power to shape
1:37 · both geography and
1:53 · politics the Iranian Afghan conflict
1:55 · seems far away but its Ripple effects
1:58 · are global American household debt
2:00 · levels are already reaching all-time
2:03 · highs and uncertainty over interest
2:06 · rates threatens to sink the Investments
2:08 · the upper middle class worked years to
2:11 · build for centuries High net worth
2:14 · investors survived instability with Safe
2:16 · Haven assets and now you're just a few
2:19 · clicks away from unprecedented access to
2:22 · the most exclusive of all museum grade
2:24 · Fine Art Masterworks the sponsor of this
2:28 · video has created a one of- aind
2:30 · database of art auctions from the last
2:33 · 50 years and they've used it to purchase
2:35 · Blue Chip art they believe will
2:38 · appreciate in value they handle all the
2:40 · leg work authentication acquisition and
2:44 · storage then they qualify the offerings
2:47 · with the SEC allowing you to invest in
2:49 · works from names like Picasso Banky and
2:53 · basat their 15 sales to date have all
2:56 · returned profits to their investors
2:58 · including net returns of 177% 35% and
3:02 · even
3:03 · 77% offerings have sold out within
3:06 · minutes so there is a wait list but
3:09 · Caspian report subscribers can skip the
3:11 · line and get started today by using the
3:14 · link in the description see important
3:17 · disclosures at
3:20 · [Music]
3:28 · masterworks.io by sparse rainfall and
3:31 · glacial melt managing these scarce
3:34 · resources is a matter of vital
3:36 · importance for Afghanistan but since
3:38 · three of the country's five major rivers
3:40 · cross into neighboring states Afghan
3:43 · water policy is inherently
3:46 · geopolitical of all the regional Rivers
3:49 · the most important is the helmund which
3:52 · runs through Afghanistan before
3:53 · terminating in the hamon wetlands on the
3:56 · Iranian border for the past five
3:58 · millennia these marshes have formed a
4:01 · cradle of civilization their importance
4:04 · to Regional agriculture is attested to
4:06 · an ancient literature and the religious
4:09 · texts of
4:10 · Zoroastrianism yet since the mid 19th
4:13 · century a British imposed border has
4:16 · complicated the issue of water rights
4:18 · though 95% of the Helman straddles
4:21 · Afghan territory decisions made Upstream
4:24 · yield grave consequences for the Iranian
4:26 · Hammons and while efforts to codify
4:29 · water rights have been pursued by both
4:31 · States no final deal has ever been
4:34 · reached in other words the dispute has
4:36 · no legal basis the closest thing to a
4:39 · binding agreement is the
4:41 · 1973 helmund water treaty which forms
4:45 · the Bedrock of bilateral water policy
4:48 · under the treaty Iran can draw 22 cubic
4:52 · M of water from the river per second
4:54 · with an option to buy another 4 cubic
4:57 · m/s in years of normal range rainfall
5:00 · this amounts to roughly 820 million
5:03 · cubic M of water per year but since the
5:06 · agreement was never ratified enforcement
5:08 · depended on good faith something in as
5:11 · short supply as the water itself
5:14 · political Discord in both signatory
5:16 · States has not helped either the 1973
5:20 · Afghan coup 1979 Iranian Revolution
5:23 · Soviet Afghan war the us-led Afghan
5:26 · occupation and the rise and subsequent
5:29 · reemergence of the Taliban have only
5:31 · imposed further obstacles as such
5:34 · long-term infrastructure planning has
5:37 · proceeded in fits and starts and today
5:40 · much of Afghanistan's water
5:42 · infrastructure consists of holdover
5:44 · Works mostly completed in the 1950s by
5:48 · American engineering firms these include
5:51 · the 44 M High AR gandab Dam Northeast of
5:55 · kahar and the kajaki dam 115 km Upstream
6:00 · from
6:01 · lashara these dams were intended to
6:03 · improve irrigation control flooding and
6:06 · provide hydroelectricity developing
6:09 · Afghan self-sufficiency in power
6:11 · generation yet they were built without
6:14 · first undertaking proper soil and
6:16 · topography studies and over time this
6:19 · contributed to Downstream salinization
6:22 · and damage to the hamon Lakes ecosystem
6:25 · not to be outdone by the Afghans on poor
6:28 · planning in 1983 the Iranian Fisheries
6:32 · company introduced alien fish species to
6:35 · the Hammon Lakes this caused immense
6:38 · damage as the invasive species devoured
6:40 · the lakes's Reeds undermining the
6:43 · ecosystem's food supply and in the 1990s
6:46 · the first Taliban government exacerbated
6:49 · the problem by choking off the hammon's
6:51 · water supply at the kajaki dam bad
6:54 · decision after bad decision Afghan
6:57 · Iranian relations soured the situation
7:01 · became so tense that in 1998 after a
7:04 · Taliban raid on the Iranian Consulate in
7:08 · Mazar Sharif killed eight Iranian
7:10 · diplomats tahan amassed nearly 200,000
7:14 · troops on the border Iran opted not to
7:18 · invade but the situation demonstrated
7:21 · how quickly disputes concerning water
7:23 · rights could boil over into full-blown
7:26 · conflict thereafter tan continued to
7:29 · support anti-taliban groups including
7:32 · the Northern Alliance which was subsumed
7:35 · into the new government following the
7:36 · American lead invasion in 2001 even so
7:41 · Iran's hard line on the Taliban was
7:43 · never set in stone instead relations
7:46 · between the two sides oscillate
7:49 · depending on whoever controls Kabul at
7:51 · any one time thus the period following
7:54 · the taliban's 2001 outing by the US
7:58 · proved one of reapo encroachment the
8:00 · water dispute continued though this time
8:02 · with the Afghan Republic yet the focus
8:05 · of tensions shifted away from the
8:07 · taliban's treatment of Afghanistan's
8:09 · Shia minority and towards the Afghan
8:12 · Republic's apparent tolerance of the
8:14 · opium trade and its status as an
8:16 · American vessel supposedly when you go
8:19 · out looking for trouble you will find
8:21 · trouble throughout the US occupation
8:24 · Iran was one of the few states that
8:27 · engaged the Taliban efforts that
8:29 · expanded after the emergence of Isis K
8:32 · in 2015 the purely domestic orientation
8:35 · of the Taliban no doubt proved less
8:37 · irksome than the Islamic State's
8:39 · transnational Ambitions which threatened
8:42 · to stoke Sunni uprisings within Iran's
8:45 · borders accordingly Tan's complaints
8:48 · turned towards the new water
8:50 · infrastructures being built within the
8:52 · cyan Basin which it alleged would choke
8:55 · off Iran's water supply this includes
8:57 · the Afghan Turkish built Kamal Khan
9:00 · irrigation Dam completed in early 2021
9:04 · with a capacity of 50 million cubic M of
9:07 · water and after the 2020 Doha agreement
9:10 · signaled an American withdrawal the tan
9:13 · Taliban engagement only deepened further
9:16 · yet few anticipated the speed of the
9:19 · Afghan Republic's collapse which caught
9:22 · even the Iranians off guard this
9:24 · coincided with the height of the coid
9:26 · pandemic and widespread water shortages
9:28 · which prompted Nationwide protests in
9:31 · Iran along with a heavy-handed
9:33 · government response the combination of
9:35 · domestic and Regional instability soon
9:37 · stoked clashes along the border and when
9:40 · in July 2022 Iran's president ibraim RI
9:44 · ordered his cabinet to push Kabul for a
9:47 · greater water share the Taliban
9:49 · responded by Reina dura the second phase
9:52 · of the kajaki dam threatening to impound
9:55 · another 1 billion cubic M of water and
9:58 · place Iran's water security under even
10:01 · greater strain roughly at the same time
10:04 · tensions increased further following a
10:06 · new influx of Afghan refugees this
10:09 · fueled Iran's long-standing concerns
10:12 · regarding separatism in its Southeastern
10:15 · cyan and baluchistan provinces since
10:18 · 2007 tan has banned Afghan refugees from
10:22 · settling there largely due to anxieties
10:25 · concerning the Region's status as a
10:27 · Sunni dominated marginalized and
10:30 · water-deprived Borderland which is an
10:32 · ideal concoction to Kickstart a
10:34 · separatist movement even so there are
10:37 · some matters on which both sides share
10:39 · an interest in cooperating though poppy
10:42 · cultivation soared under the US
10:45 · installed Afghan Republic the Taliban
10:48 · has since largely eradicated the trade
10:51 · following an Amnesty on the 2022 Harvest
10:54 · stringent enforcement of
10:56 · counternarcotics has seen opium
10:58 · production Fall by 4 fths in helmund a
11:02 · Taliban stronghold it is down a
11:04 · staggering
11:06 · 99% many farmers have switched to wheat
11:09 · yet while this has helped alleviate food
11:12 · shortages in a state under heavy
11:14 · sanctions grain production has produced
11:17 · Slimmer profit margins on occasion this
11:20 · has prompted violent clashes between
11:22 · Taliban militants and farmers and as
11:25 · with all forms of prohibition
11:27 · skyrocketing prices are are providing
11:29 · lucrative opportunities for Bootleggers
11:32 · gutsy enough to defy Taliban decrees
11:35 · thus by assisting the Taliban Teran
11:38 · could snuff out trafficking at its
11:40 · source this would help ease the strain
11:42 · on its own counternarcotics efforts
11:44 · which have wilted under the pressure of
11:46 · its porous 930 km Afghan border such
11:51 · programs would only become more relevant
11:53 · as climate change sets in opium is not
11:56 · only more lucrative than conventional
11:59 · agriculture but less water intensive and
12:01 · any letup in enforcement or Taliban
12:04 · influence at the hands of Isis K or
12:07 · others could see Poppy yields return to
12:09 · their pre-eradication levels within a
12:12 · single season but such Taliban Teran
12:16 · cooperation will not be possible without
12:18 · advances in minority rights in eastern
12:22 · Iran there is a significant amount of
12:24 · anti- Afghan sentiment mostly due to
12:27 · refugees border security issues and an
12:30 · opioid crisis largely seen as an Afghan
12:33 · problem meanwhile the Taliban attempts
12:36 · at establishing pashun cultural hegemony
12:38 · have fallen hard on its Persian speaking
12:41 · minorities this includes the suppression
12:43 · of Persian literature and language in
12:46 · favor of poshto mutual concessions on
12:49 · this front will thus be necessary
12:51 · finally the issue of water rights will
12:54 · have to be finalized in a properly
12:56 · ratified treaty whatever else their dis
12:58 · agreements both tan and the Taliban
13:01 · share a professed commitment to the
13:03 · Helmand water treaty though since
13:06 · nothing was ever ratified Afghanistan
13:08 · has the clear upper hand in negotiations
13:11 · recent tensions have not concerned the
13:13 · agreement's legitimacy so much as
13:16 · whether Afghanistan is obliged to feed
13:18 · Iran additional water in times of
13:21 · drought but while a blackl
13:23 · interpretation of the treaty leans
13:25 · towards Afghanistan the Taliban is an
13:28 · unre recognized government something
13:30 · Tran has been at pains to point out
13:34 · nonetheless the Taliban Remains The
13:36 · defao Sovereign Authority in Afghanistan
13:39 · regardless of legal technicalities thus
13:42 · in the long run Iran may be moved to
13:45 · recognize the Taliban possibly on the
13:48 · condition that it provides greater
13:50 · protections to its ethn religious kin
13:52 · within Afghanistan doing so would open
13:55 · up the dispute resolution procedures
13:57 · available on under the helmond river
13:59 · treaty this includes Article 4 and
14:03 · additional protocol 2 which provide
14:05 · detailed procedures for settling
14:07 · disagreements first through diplomatic
14:10 · channels then via third-party
14:12 · arbitration and then through an
14:14 · independent fact-f finding process to be
14:17 · conducted by a tribunal this may prove
14:21 · difficult though as it would need
14:23 · significant buyin from the Taliban it
14:25 · would also require a mediator that could
14:28 · command and the trust of both parties
14:30 · the most likely candidates would be
14:32 · Qatar which brokered the 2020 Doha
14:36 · agreement or China which recently
14:38 · brokered deals between Iran and Saudi
14:41 · Arabia whatever happens settling the
14:44 · dispute is in the mutual interest of
14:46 · both parties shared security issues
14:49 · necessitate it and beyond that neither
14:53 · side can afford new enemies the
14:55 · differences between them are significant
14:57 · in religious cultural and
14:59 · ethnolinguistic terms diplomacy is to do
15:03 · and say the most abhorent things in the
15:06 · nicest way but nowhere is it written
15:09 · that effective diplomacy requires
15:11 · complete consensus it merely requires
15:15 · Toleration I've been your host shiran
15:17 · from Caspian report all of our content
15:20 · is crowdfunded if you want to be part of
15:22 · that Network and gain access to some
15:24 · premium perks like Early Access PDF
15:27 · files Etc consider joining our platform
15:30 · on patreon or the YouTube membership
15:33 · program you'll find the links in the
15:35 · description box in any case thank you
15:38 · for your time and S

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Transcript
0:00	·	some actions have an end but no
0:03	·	beginning some begin but do not end it
0:06	·	all depends upon where the Observer is
0:08	·	standing on May 27th tensions on The
0:12	·	Afghan Iranian border boiled over near
0:15	·	the city of zaran two people were killed
0:18	·	two more were injured but while both
0:20	·	sides quickly de-escalated the situation
0:23	·	the incident highlights a deeply
0:25	·	entrenched border dispute one that
0:27	·	predates both governments yet this is no
0:31	·	conflict over territory instead the tap
0:34	·	rout of Afghan Iranian tensions is and
0:37	·	always has been water rights since the
0:40	·	1870s water access in the syan Basin has
0:44	·	formed a geopolitical friction point the
0:47	·	Locust is the Helman river which runs
0:49	·	through Afghanistan before terminating
0:51	·	in eastern Iran the past few decades
0:54	·	have seen rainfall drop precipitously
0:57	·	the hamon Lakes once a civilization
1:00	·	cradle are bone dry and now climate
1:03	·	change threatens to convert the region
1:05	·	into a permanent Dust Bowl the crisis is
1:08	·	a force multiplier for a host of
1:10	·	political sore points border security
1:12	·	issues Refugee flows islamist militancy
1:16	·	and illicit Goods trafficking all add to
1:18	·	a lingering sense of unease mistrust and
1:21	·	anxiety it remains to be seen whether
1:23	·	these differences can be resolved by
1:26	·	diplomatic means or otherwise Nations
1:29	·	have gone to War for less one thing we
1:32	·	do know water is more than just a bunch
1:34	·	of atoms it possesses the power to shape
1:37	·	both geography and
1:53	·	politics the Iranian Afghan conflict
1:55	·	seems far away but its Ripple effects
1:58	·	are global American household debt
2:00	·	levels are already reaching all-time
2:03	·	highs and uncertainty over interest
2:06	·	rates threatens to sink the Investments
2:08	·	the upper middle class worked years to
2:11	·	build for centuries High net worth
2:14	·	investors survived instability with Safe
2:16	·	Haven assets and now you're just a few
2:19	·	clicks away from unprecedented access to
2:22	·	the most exclusive of all museum grade
2:24	·	Fine Art Masterworks the sponsor of this
2:28	·	video has created a one of- aind
2:30	·	database of art auctions from the last
2:33	·	50 years and they've used it to purchase
2:35	·	Blue Chip art they believe will
2:38	·	appreciate in value they handle all the
2:40	·	leg work authentication acquisition and
2:44	·	storage then they qualify the offerings
2:47	·	with the SEC allowing you to invest in
2:49	·	works from names like Picasso Banky and
2:53	·	basat their 15 sales to date have all
2:56	·	returned profits to their investors
2:58	·	including net returns of 177% 35% and
3:02	·	even
3:03	·	77% offerings have sold out within
3:06	·	minutes so there is a wait list but
3:09	·	Caspian report subscribers can skip the
3:11	·	line and get started today by using the
3:14	·	link in the description see important
3:17	·	disclosures at
3:20	·	[Music]
3:28	·	masterworks.io by sparse rainfall and
3:31	·	glacial melt managing these scarce
3:34	·	resources is a matter of vital
3:36	·	importance for Afghanistan but since
3:38	·	three of the country's five major rivers
3:40	·	cross into neighboring states Afghan
3:43	·	water policy is inherently
3:46	·	geopolitical of all the regional Rivers
3:49	·	the most important is the helmund which
3:52	·	runs through Afghanistan before
3:53	·	terminating in the hamon wetlands on the
3:56	·	Iranian border for the past five
3:58	·	millennia these marshes have formed a
4:01	·	cradle of civilization their importance
4:04	·	to Regional agriculture is attested to
4:06	·	an ancient literature and the religious
4:09	·	texts of
4:10	·	Zoroastrianism yet since the mid 19th
4:13	·	century a British imposed border has
4:16	·	complicated the issue of water rights
4:18	·	though 95% of the Helman straddles
4:21	·	Afghan territory decisions made Upstream
4:24	·	yield grave consequences for the Iranian
4:26	·	Hammons and while efforts to codify
4:29	·	water rights have been pursued by both
4:31	·	States no final deal has ever been
4:34	·	reached in other words the dispute has
4:36	·	no legal basis the closest thing to a
4:39	·	binding agreement is the
4:41	·	1973 helmund water treaty which forms
4:45	·	the Bedrock of bilateral water policy
4:48	·	under the treaty Iran can draw 22 cubic
4:52	·	M of water from the river per second
4:54	·	with an option to buy another 4 cubic
4:57	·	m/s in years of normal range rainfall
5:00	·	this amounts to roughly 820 million
5:03	·	cubic M of water per year but since the
5:06	·	agreement was never ratified enforcement
5:08	·	depended on good faith something in as
5:11	·	short supply as the water itself
5:14	·	political Discord in both signatory
5:16	·	States has not helped either the 1973
5:20	·	Afghan coup 1979 Iranian Revolution
5:23	·	Soviet Afghan war the us-led Afghan
5:26	·	occupation and the rise and subsequent
5:29	·	reemergence of the Taliban have only
5:31	·	imposed further obstacles as such
5:34	·	long-term infrastructure planning has
5:37	·	proceeded in fits and starts and today
5:40	·	much of Afghanistan's water
5:42	·	infrastructure consists of holdover
5:44	·	Works mostly completed in the 1950s by
5:48	·	American engineering firms these include
5:51	·	the 44 M High AR gandab Dam Northeast of
5:55	·	kahar and the kajaki dam 115 km Upstream
6:00	·	from
6:01	·	lashara these dams were intended to
6:03	·	improve irrigation control flooding and
6:06	·	provide hydroelectricity developing
6:09	·	Afghan self-sufficiency in power
6:11	·	generation yet they were built without
6:14	·	first undertaking proper soil and
6:16	·	topography studies and over time this
6:19	·	contributed to Downstream salinization
6:22	·	and damage to the hamon Lakes ecosystem
6:25	·	not to be outdone by the Afghans on poor
6:28	·	planning in 1983 the Iranian Fisheries
6:32	·	company introduced alien fish species to
6:35	·	the Hammon Lakes this caused immense
6:38	·	damage as the invasive species devoured
6:40	·	the lakes's Reeds undermining the
6:43	·	ecosystem's food supply and in the 1990s
6:46	·	the first Taliban government exacerbated
6:49	·	the problem by choking off the hammon's
6:51	·	water supply at the kajaki dam bad
6:54	·	decision after bad decision Afghan
6:57	·	Iranian relations soured the situation
7:01	·	became so tense that in 1998 after a
7:04	·	Taliban raid on the Iranian Consulate in
7:08	·	Mazar Sharif killed eight Iranian
7:10	·	diplomats tahan amassed nearly 200,000
7:14	·	troops on the border Iran opted not to
7:18	·	invade but the situation demonstrated
7:21	·	how quickly disputes concerning water
7:23	·	rights could boil over into full-blown
7:26	·	conflict thereafter tan continued to
7:29	·	support anti-taliban groups including
7:32	·	the Northern Alliance which was subsumed
7:35	·	into the new government following the
7:36	·	American lead invasion in 2001 even so
7:41	·	Iran's hard line on the Taliban was
7:43	·	never set in stone instead relations
7:46	·	between the two sides oscillate
7:49	·	depending on whoever controls Kabul at
7:51	·	any one time thus the period following
7:54	·	the taliban's 2001 outing by the US
7:58	·	proved one of reapo encroachment the
8:00	·	water dispute continued though this time
8:02	·	with the Afghan Republic yet the focus
8:05	·	of tensions shifted away from the
8:07	·	taliban's treatment of Afghanistan's
8:09	·	Shia minority and towards the Afghan
8:12	·	Republic's apparent tolerance of the
8:14	·	opium trade and its status as an
8:16	·	American vessel supposedly when you go
8:19	·	out looking for trouble you will find
8:21	·	trouble throughout the US occupation
8:24	·	Iran was one of the few states that
8:27	·	engaged the Taliban efforts that
8:29	·	expanded after the emergence of Isis K
8:32	·	in 2015 the purely domestic orientation
8:35	·	of the Taliban no doubt proved less
8:37	·	irksome than the Islamic State's
8:39	·	transnational Ambitions which threatened
8:42	·	to stoke Sunni uprisings within Iran's
8:45	·	borders accordingly Tan's complaints
8:48	·	turned towards the new water
8:50	·	infrastructures being built within the
8:52	·	cyan Basin which it alleged would choke
8:55	·	off Iran's water supply this includes
8:57	·	the Afghan Turkish built Kamal Khan
9:00	·	irrigation Dam completed in early 2021
9:04	·	with a capacity of 50 million cubic M of
9:07	·	water and after the 2020 Doha agreement
9:10	·	signaled an American withdrawal the tan
9:13	·	Taliban engagement only deepened further
9:16	·	yet few anticipated the speed of the
9:19	·	Afghan Republic's collapse which caught
9:22	·	even the Iranians off guard this
9:24	·	coincided with the height of the coid
9:26	·	pandemic and widespread water shortages
9:28	·	which prompted Nationwide protests in
9:31	·	Iran along with a heavy-handed
9:33	·	government response the combination of
9:35	·	domestic and Regional instability soon
9:37	·	stoked clashes along the border and when
9:40	·	in July 2022 Iran's president ibraim RI
9:44	·	ordered his cabinet to push Kabul for a
9:47	·	greater water share the Taliban
9:49	·	responded by Reina dura the second phase
9:52	·	of the kajaki dam threatening to impound
9:55	·	another 1 billion cubic M of water and
9:58	·	place Iran's water security under even
10:01	·	greater strain roughly at the same time
10:04	·	tensions increased further following a
10:06	·	new influx of Afghan refugees this
10:09	·	fueled Iran's long-standing concerns
10:12	·	regarding separatism in its Southeastern
10:15	·	cyan and baluchistan provinces since
10:18	·	2007 tan has banned Afghan refugees from
10:22	·	settling there largely due to anxieties
10:25	·	concerning the Region's status as a
10:27	·	Sunni dominated marginalized and
10:30	·	water-deprived Borderland which is an
10:32	·	ideal concoction to Kickstart a
10:34	·	separatist movement even so there are
10:37	·	some matters on which both sides share
10:39	·	an interest in cooperating though poppy
10:42	·	cultivation soared under the US
10:45	·	installed Afghan Republic the Taliban
10:48	·	has since largely eradicated the trade
10:51	·	following an Amnesty on the 2022 Harvest
10:54	·	stringent enforcement of
10:56	·	counternarcotics has seen opium
10:58	·	production Fall by 4 fths in helmund a
11:02	·	Taliban stronghold it is down a
11:04	·	staggering
11:06	·	99% many farmers have switched to wheat
11:09	·	yet while this has helped alleviate food
11:12	·	shortages in a state under heavy
11:14	·	sanctions grain production has produced
11:17	·	Slimmer profit margins on occasion this
11:20	·	has prompted violent clashes between
11:22	·	Taliban militants and farmers and as
11:25	·	with all forms of prohibition
11:27	·	skyrocketing prices are are providing
11:29	·	lucrative opportunities for Bootleggers
11:32	·	gutsy enough to defy Taliban decrees
11:35	·	thus by assisting the Taliban Teran
11:38	·	could snuff out trafficking at its
11:40	·	source this would help ease the strain
11:42	·	on its own counternarcotics efforts
11:44	·	which have wilted under the pressure of
11:46	·	its porous 930 km Afghan border such
11:51	·	programs would only become more relevant
11:53	·	as climate change sets in opium is not
11:56	·	only more lucrative than conventional
11:59	·	agriculture but less water intensive and
12:01	·	any letup in enforcement or Taliban
12:04	·	influence at the hands of Isis K or
12:07	·	others could see Poppy yields return to
12:09	·	their pre-eradication levels within a
12:12	·	single season but such Taliban Teran
12:16	·	cooperation will not be possible without
12:18	·	advances in minority rights in eastern
12:22	·	Iran there is a significant amount of
12:24	·	anti- Afghan sentiment mostly due to
12:27	·	refugees border security issues and an
12:30	·	opioid crisis largely seen as an Afghan
12:33	·	problem meanwhile the Taliban attempts
12:36	·	at establishing pashun cultural hegemony
12:38	·	have fallen hard on its Persian speaking
12:41	·	minorities this includes the suppression
12:43	·	of Persian literature and language in
12:46	·	favor of poshto mutual concessions on
12:49	·	this front will thus be necessary
12:51	·	finally the issue of water rights will
12:54	·	have to be finalized in a properly
12:56	·	ratified treaty whatever else their dis
12:58	·	agreements both tan and the Taliban
13:01	·	share a professed commitment to the
13:03	·	Helmand water treaty though since
13:06	·	nothing was ever ratified Afghanistan
13:08	·	has the clear upper hand in negotiations
13:11	·	recent tensions have not concerned the
13:13	·	agreement's legitimacy so much as
13:16	·	whether Afghanistan is obliged to feed
13:18	·	Iran additional water in times of
13:21	·	drought but while a blackl
13:23	·	interpretation of the treaty leans
13:25	·	towards Afghanistan the Taliban is an
13:28	·	unre recognized government something
13:30	·	Tran has been at pains to point out
13:34	·	nonetheless the Taliban Remains The
13:36	·	defao Sovereign Authority in Afghanistan
13:39	·	regardless of legal technicalities thus
13:42	·	in the long run Iran may be moved to
13:45	·	recognize the Taliban possibly on the
13:48	·	condition that it provides greater
13:50	·	protections to its ethn religious kin
13:52	·	within Afghanistan doing so would open
13:55	·	up the dispute resolution procedures
13:57	·	available on under the helmond river
13:59	·	treaty this includes Article 4 and
14:03	·	additional protocol 2 which provide
14:05	·	detailed procedures for settling
14:07	·	disagreements first through diplomatic
14:10	·	channels then via third-party
14:12	·	arbitration and then through an
14:14	·	independent fact-f finding process to be
14:17	·	conducted by a tribunal this may prove
14:21	·	difficult though as it would need
14:23	·	significant buyin from the Taliban it
14:25	·	would also require a mediator that could
14:28	·	command and the trust of both parties
14:30	·	the most likely candidates would be
14:32	·	Qatar which brokered the 2020 Doha
14:36	·	agreement or China which recently
14:38	·	brokered deals between Iran and Saudi
14:41	·	Arabia whatever happens settling the
14:44	·	dispute is in the mutual interest of
14:46	·	both parties shared security issues
14:49	·	necessitate it and beyond that neither
14:53	·	side can afford new enemies the
14:55	·	differences between them are significant
14:57	·	in religious cultural and
14:59	·	ethnolinguistic terms diplomacy is to do
15:03	·	and say the most abhorent things in the
15:06	·	nicest way but nowhere is it written
15:09	·	that effective diplomacy requires
15:11	·	complete consensus it merely requires
15:15	·	Toleration I've been your host shiran
15:17	·	from Caspian report all of our content
15:20	·	is crowdfunded if you want to be part of
15:22	·	that Network and gain access to some
15:24	·	premium perks like Early Access PDF
15:27	·	files Etc consider joining our platform
15:30	·	on patreon or the YouTube membership
15:33	·	program you'll find the links in the
15:35	·	description box in any case thank you
15:38	·	for your time and S