Here in NE Florida we are a long way from where the storm is right now, yesterday at Costco, all the water was already sold out, one man told his wife they needed 9 jars of peanut butter.
One of the many negative things all the people that have recently moved to Florida bring with them is an irrational fear of hurricanes, especially when they are nowhere near to their location and will likely be no more than a big rainstorm when it does come this way.
The news media doesn’t help the situation by going into 24/7 fear mongering, the schools in Duval County are closed today and tomorrow.
ok, I'm lost to what this means.
If I were pulling a fifth-wheel trailer, I would go west north-west as the western side of the storm is less surge and wind. Get as far west of the landfall point as you can and of course away from the coast.
This storm has a lot of very hot water to cross and could become a cat 5 literally overnight like Camille in 1969.
Riding it out in a 5th Wheel is not a good plan.
I have been thru 5 hurricanes and several tropical storms.
You should get out now.
The roads will; become blocked with last minute stragglers and you will have nowhere to go.
Head for west Florida or Alabama...........................
Current track is headed straight for you and Idalia is about to cross very hot water, which will cause her to intensify:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents
See also:
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi
Hurricanes loose intensity over land. I would head NNW in the direction of Valdosta AL. But check the triffic
And I would leave ASAP and not wait.
For information on the westward shift, it is found in the section called Forecast Discussion.
For Forecast Discussion 11, it’s in paragraph 2, where it talks about the changes in the forecast tract.
There has been a westward shift in the model guidance
overnight, perhaps due to the trough tugging Idalia more
northward before taking a north-northeast turn. It should be
noted that the ECMWF ensemble shows many of its strongest members
on the eastern side of its guidance envelope, which is a
reasonable place to be given the synoptic pattern. The new NHC
forecast is adjusted a little to the west but is now east of the
model consensus on the eastern side of the reliable model guidance.
. Right now north-northwest would be my play. But you never know for sure with hurricanes.
Advice from someone who’s been there:
1. Choose a direction. Going West will get you to the weaker side of the storm. Going SE will get you beyond the storm... but you will have to cross a lot of storm prep areas (like Tampa). Most people tend to go North... and that means fewer places to stop as they take up the lodging or camping resources. Just choose one and go with it.
2. Go quickly. The longer you wait, the more you will wait in traffic with those who also waited. Get to your destination and rest easy rather than sitting on the highway in the storm.
https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2023/al102023/
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots
Prayers for y’all. Seriously.
Pensacola. Now git.
Might as well post this too, for those that might be interested
The radii of the different winds reported in the public advisory are for that report. As the extents are going to change, as the hurricane strengthens, you go to the Forecast Advisories and see how it changes over time, but it’s easier to understand it graphically.
To see that, go to https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/imagery/live-hurricane-tracker
* this program takes time to load, and sometime buggy
Zoom in with the + and - buttons and center the hurricane.
Click on the LayerList button (a bunch of squares on top of each other)
Unclick the 2nd button NHC-Tropical Weather
Click the right pointing arrow on the first button and it expands it.
Expand the Forcast information section, unclick Forecast Cone, and give it time to remove the cone.
Expand the Wind information, and click on Forecast Wind Radii and wait till it loads.
This gives you an idea of the diameter of the 34, 50, and 64 knot winds - click on legend button to see the meaning of the colors
1 mph = 1.1508 * kts
34kts = 39mph
50kts = 58mph
64kt = 74mph
I’ve been through more than a few of these, in my 35+ years here in FL. And I pay attention more than most.
The “Dirty Side” of this storm will stretch all the way east of you, into the Atlantic. Depending how it shifts, wind gusts and blinding rain of from 40 mph to 60 mph straight East of you till the E coast. And all above that line.
No guarantees, but unless you can make it below Cocoa Beach I would not go SE. Roads will start to jam tonight, I promise. Probably around 7pm, but who knows?
In your shoes, I’d head towards Tallahassee, then straight W on I-10, as far as you can safely get. There is a road from you to Tally, not freeway, so it’s probably going to stay pretty clear until tomorrow. You should be able to make the FL-LA line, and a bit more, IF YOU GO NOW!!! And with a 5th wheel, if it was important to me, I’d leave 10 minutes ago.
But have a plan if the roads get jammed. Assuming your truck can go through soggy grass and 4” slippery mud under it, be ready to pull off and drop the beast. Hopefully near something you can chain it to. Then go West, young man!. Drive wherever path you can, and be ready to live out of your truck for a few days. Water. More water. Canned foods. More water. Batteries, radio, flashlights, rifle, handguns, machete...tent if you have one, sleeping bags...INSECT REPELLENT!
Keep your gas tank full, keep topping if you safely can when it drops below 3/4. Take a few full 5gal cans. People stuck on jammed roads run out of gas all the time, which sux awful. It gets HOT inside, trying to sleep, w no AC. Drop the windows, get soggy, mosquitoes...many try to walk. Bad situation.
You want to be on the W side of this, wherever it lands. But 50 miles W is better than 100 miles E.
Latest did shift eyefall a few miles W.
Google Maps says 2.5 hrs from you to W side of Tally at this moment, no traffic jams (that will change). I’ve found Gmaps pretty accurate.
If you go SE, draw a line from St Petersburg to cocoa beach. You absolutely MUST be on the SSE side of it. The further the better, but stay the heck away from the W coast at least 30 miles.
Imo only.
Hate to say it, but the eye looks like it will pass VERY close to Valdosta. Maybe hit it, period.
Landfall Cat4. 75 mi away from landfall now. Could still be Cat2 at Valdosta.
Imo.
Stay safe!!!