Posted on 03/13/2023 5:00:55 AM PDT by MtnClimber
I’m old enough to remember the German post-World War II “economic miracle.” (Their term was “Wirtschaftswunder.”). After more than ten years of government direction of the economy under the Nazis, followed by the devastation of the war, Germany after 1945, under economics minister Ludwig Erhard, adopted the model of low taxes and light regulation. The economy boomed for decades on end.
But Germany then gradually turned away from Erhard’s prescriptions. Today Germany is twenty or so years into the most aggressive green energy “transition” of any country with a large economy, with the government firmly in charge of picking the winners and losers in the energy sector. At this writing, Germany’s consumer electricity rates are in the range of triple the U.S. average. My January 3, 2023 post quoted a German energy market guru named Mirko Scholssarczyk forecasting yet further big increases:
“40 cents per kilowatt-hour [is] likely to be the new normal in 2023 and 2024, and . . . prices could even rise to 50 cents per kilowatt-hour after that.”
That would put German consumer electricity rates at about 4 to 5 times the U.S. average — assuming that the U.S. does not go down the same path and drive rates up the way Germany has.
Is anybody over there in Germany learning anything? Don’t count on it. A March 10 post at the site No Tricks Zone has the title “As German Economy Reels, Chancellor Promises Going Green Will Lead To ‘Economic Miracle.’” Yes, it will be a new “economic miracle” — but this time not led by free market entrepreneurialism, but rather by a government-directed and taxpayer-subsidized energy transition. Or at least that’s what German Chancellor Olaf Scholz claims to believe. NTZ links to a German-language site called Pleiteticker.de, and provides translations of the key passages:
“Chancellor Olaf Scholz is now promising a new economic miracle through investment in climate protection, regardless of the miserable economic situation in which the Federal Republic finds itself,” reports Germany’s new, critical online news site, Pleiteticker.de. . . . “Because of the high investments in climate protection, Germany will be able to achieve growth rates for some time, as last seen in the 1950s and 1960s,” said the Chancellor.
In Scholz’s vision, economic growth results from “investments,” so if the government just provides enough billions in compelled “investments” the economy is sure to boom — even if the “investments” are in things that would immediately go bust in an uncompelled and unsubsidized environment, such as wind and solar electricity generation or electric heat pumps for home heating. Basically, Scholz has the same economic vision as our President Biden.
NTZ quotes Pleiteticker’s reaction:
“Real wages most recently fell by 3.7 percent in 2022 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. At the same time, consumer prices rose by 8.6 percent, while food and energy prices increased by around 20 percent. Economists expect German GDP to fall in the first quarter of 2023, which would be the second time in a row – a recession. Major German companies, most recently BASF, are leaving the country.”
Next up in Germany’s energy transition is the full electrification of home heating, to be brought about by compelling everybody to replace gas furnaces with electric heat pumps. On February 28, NTZ reported that Germany Economics Minister Robert Habeck had introduced legislation to ban new gas furnaces beginning in 2024, with existing gas furnaces likely to be allowed only a 30 year life, after which they would be required to be replaced. On March 11, NTZ, citing another German-language source called Blackout News, reports that the government intends to seek fines of 50,000 euros for anyone who doesn’t comply with the requirement to switch to electric heat:
All gas and oil heating systems will need to be replaced after 30 years of operation, with no possibility to repair and keep them going. . . . “Those who fail to comply with the replacement obligation are to pay a fine of up to 50,000 euros,” reports Blackout News here. “Plans to ban gas and oil heating systems from 2024 have taken many Germans by surprise. If a heating system has to be replaced in the coming year – whether due to a defect in the old gas or oil heating system or due to a new building – a climate-friendly alternative must be installed. . . . The measures are intended to serve as a deterrent and ensure that defective systems are actually replaced with more climate-friendly options.”
Has anybody in Germany finally had enough? From NTZ’s March 11 post:
The plans drafted by Habeck and the German government, however, have run up against fierce opposition since they become known. Opposition parties have sharply criticized the plans, and others within the government view the proposed measures as a problem.
Meanwhile, in Britain’s Daily Mail on March 7, there is a big article about the experiences of UK consumers with heat pumps for home heating. The headline is “How heat pumps leave some homes so cold people are ripping them out.” The article notes that the UK has a program offering homeowners a subsidy of up to £ 6000 if they install a heat pump. Unfortunately, when the temperature drops below about 30F, the heat pumps don’t work very well. Excerpt from the Daily Mail article:
Homeowners who have bought homes with heat pumps already installed - or purchased new builds where pumps were part of the package - have told us about a litany of problems associated with the technology. . . . Some have got so fed up with them they have had them removed — or installed additional heating systems to step in when the pumps don't generate enough heat.
Heat pumps that run on electricity at 5 times U.S. prices, and then don’t keep you warm on the coldest days of the winter. That’s the green idea of an “economic miracle.”
When this doesn’t work the government may need to start a war to distract their angry citizens.
I hope that the fears they were discussing before this winter of energy shortages and the learning of how quickly things can change, will stir voters enough to limit the left’s effectiveness in these attempts.
My hope is that the Russian invasion has moved Europe to the right to some degree.
They will, of course, freeze to death in the dark. Whether or not we follow them will depend on how far we go before we totally eliminate all leftists.
We need the Daleks NOW. Exterminate, exterminate.
So you can claim wonderful economic miracles, while the vast majority of people's standard of living goes down, and down, and down...
Perhaps we should call it economic gaslighting...
Germany’s latitude (about 47°N to about 55°N) is comparable to New England and southern Canada. Southern Germany’s solar throughput would be as bad as solar in our U.S. New England states. While northern German’s would be even worse, like in Canada.
“When this doesn’t work the government may need to start a war to distract their angry citizens.”
The timing of the Ukraine War is pretty much RIGHT ON THE NOSE with the drastic measures now being imposed on Europeans.
“Unfortunately, when the temperature drops below about 30F, the heat pumps don’t work very well.”
Here in Alabama, all the heat pumps come with heat strips that run on electricity for when the temp drops too low.
The German's just might discover that their government has also adopted the US election policies of the Democratic/Communist party.
To wit: He who counts the votes is more important than they who cast the votes.
Yep. Especially with legislation with deceptive names like "Inflation Reduction Act of 2022".
This year your energy ration will increase from 400kwh to 350 kwh per month.
I don’t get the relevancy of your comment, that can be thrown in about any country at any time anywhere, it is not very meaningful.
I do think the possibility that this Russian invasion and the energy fears of this winter have affected European politics is a valid hope and a certainty to some degree, enough to affect things, who knows, but it does give pro-energy politicians something to work with.
True that. I, a fellow Alabamian, have a variable speed heat pump and variable speed air handler, with heat strips to help when it gets really cold (like Christmas Eve at 11°F). The problem is that the heat strips consume a lot of energy -- more so than a natural gas furnace. That's no problem for us in Alabama since we don't get that cold often.
But Germany's latitude at it's southernmost compares to New England, and it's northern most is more like Canada. That's too cold to efficiently heat with electricity. Plus it's too far up north to get good power from solar (as the article points to Germany's failing energy strategy). And I'm an advocate for home solar and energy independence to those who are in a good position for it --- like us in Alabama but not in Germany.
Yeah, and cost a fortune to use when it gets really clod.
You should have seen my Alabama Power bill for January. Beat my mortgage payment!
I lived in Germany and worked for German companies for 26 years. They will accept government rules that no American society would even consider discussing, and they live their lives as before. It’s why Hitler was successful. He was the boss and they followed the rules he made.
What saves them is their ingenuity. They joked before the wall came down that the DDR was the only version of communism that worked. Of course it didn’t and that’s why they built the wall.
Businesses are moving out, many to the US., and their population is shrinking. They pay to have kids @ 250 euros a month per kid but still can’t maintain their population. With the huge social welfare burdens and the price of energy, the future for them is bleak. But they will march on to the new Fuhrer, whoever takes that role, Green or Red.
I know many Germans and have spent much time working there over the years. They seem to have a cultural identity of “conforming to the rules”...which assumes the rules are just. When they’re not, they’ll still abide by them - blindly assuming somebody else knows best. When it comes to “climate change” and “green energy” there seems to be zero critical thinking and an automatic acceptance of any radical energy policy that is presented under the umbrella of “saving the planet”. To question it is almost criminal.
I had a colleague that was vehemently against nuclear but couldn’t wrap his head around our concern regarding dependence on Russian natural gas. It’s as though they hear a single collective voice and, therefore, just accept it as ‘logical’.
It’s odd...give them an engineering problem and they’ll analyze the crap out of it and over engineer it to be insanely reliable. They seem incapable of the same analysis when it comes to the collective thought.
The resistance to following government edicts blindly comes mostly from the “Ossies” who reject unquestioned authority. Living under the Communists was an object lesson.
The German people will not march over the cliff like lemmings. There will be a reckoning.
Nope. They are not done making sacrifices to Gaia. The only wirtschaftswunder Germany is going to experience now is setting a world record for deindustrialization due to unaffordable energy costs. Things will have to get much much worse before they will be ready to finally stop sacrificing to Gaia.
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