[enumerated]

“The insurance companies are seeing all cause mortalities up 40% above what their long historical actuarial data would expect.”

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/death-rate

World - Historical Death Rate Data
Year Death Rate
2022 7.678
2021 7.645
2020 7.612
2019 7.579
2018 7.546
2017 7.570
2016 7.594

So, divide the 7.678 rate for 2022 by the 7.579 rate for 2019 - that is a 1.33% increase in the mortality rate. That may be significant, but I don’t know where you’re getting your 40% figure.

Anyway, I see your point - they can use all-causes mortality statistics without relying on the bogus Covid statistics.

[grey_whiskers]

40% was for a specific age range, IIRC 45-64 which is typically a group with known but not too large death rates.

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/588738-huge-huge-numbers-death-rates-up-40-percent-over-pre/

From thehill.com in June, but it was bandied about on other sources in January 2022.

[Myrddin]

Denis Rancourt specifically chose all cause mortality to avoid cherry picking. He was using Canadian data (similar seen in the USA). Extrapolating to the whole globe may be more difficult as not every country has well established life insurance businesses with tightly monitored actuarial data.