Posted on 12/12/2022 4:17:42 AM PST by MtnClimber
As my last post reported, the Official Party Line from our government holds that we have this “100% Clean Electricity” thing about 90% solved. As the government-funded NREL put it in their August 30, 2022 press release, “[a] growing body of research has demonstrated that cost-effective high-renewable power systems are possible.” But then they admit that that statement does not cover what they call the "last 10% challenge” — providing for the worst seasonal droughts of sun and wind, that result in periods when there is no renewable power to meet around 10% of annual electricity demand. That last 10%, says NREL, will require one or more “technologies that have not yet been deployed at scale.”
But hey, we’ve got 90% of this renewable transition thing solved. How hard could figuring out that last 10% really be?
And on that basis the government has embarked upon forcing the closure of large numbers of power plants that use fossil fuels like coal and natural gas, as well as on suppressing exploration for fossil fuels and other things like pipelines and refineries. After all, if we’re transitioning at least 90% to renewables, we won’t need 90% of the fossil fuel infrastructure any more, will we?
Actually, that’s completely wrong. Until the full solution to the so-called “last 10% challenge” is in place, we need 100% of our fossil fuel backup infrastructure to remain in place, fully maintained, and ready to step in when the wind and sun fail.
Let’s take a brief look at what bridging the last piece of the renewable transition actually looks like.
NREL’s August 2022 Report titled “Examining Supply-Side Options to Achieve 100% Clean Electricity by 2035” lays out several scenarios for supposedly achieving that goal. For all the scenarios, the most important piece is the same: building and deploying lots more wind turbines and solar panels. (The scenarios differ in the degree of deployment of other elements like transmission lines, battery storage, carbon capture technology, and additional nuclear.). As foreseen by NREL, by 2035, total electricity generation capacity in the U.S. has more than tripled, with the large majority of the additions being wind and solar. There is substantial overbuilding of the wind and solar facilities, presumably to provide enough electricity on days of light wind or some clouds, while having large surpluses to discard on days of full wind and sun. Some storage has been provided, but mostly “diurnal” (intra-day) and not seasonal.
Here is a chart from the Report (page x) illustrating the addition of facilities in the four scenarios by 2035. In this chart, the left-most column depicts current (2020) conditions, and the right-most four columns depict the four proposed scenarios for 2035:
And here’s the translation of the color codes:
So in any of these four scenarios for 2035, assume that we are now at the moment when the “last 10%” of the annual power consumption needs to be generated. That means that the wind is not blowing, the sun is not shining, and the storage facilities are empty. Also assume for these purposes that the magical something that will supposedly bridge the “last 10%” gap still remains to be invented, as is the case today.
Simple question: How much in the way of fossil fuel backup do we need at this moment? The answer is: all of it. That is, we need enough fossil fuel backup to supply 100% of the demand on the grid, or at least 100% of the demand that is not supplied by whatever residual generation from dispatchable things like hydro, biomass, or nuclear our masters have allowed to remain in service.
In other words, don’t get fooled from the assertion that only 10% of the supply problem remains to be solved into thinking that that means that any of the fossil fuel backup can be reduced or eliminated. You may need the backup for only 10% of the year, but when you need it, you need all of it. You may have built wind and solar facilities sufficient to supply the grid three times over when the wind is blowing and the sun shining; but when they are not, and the storage is empty, you need every single fossil fuel power plant you ever had.
So until this “last 10% challenge” is solved, it remains completely incompetent and irresponsible to reduce any of the fossil fuel generation infrastructure currently in place. No amount of building of wind and solar facilities changes that. The only thing that can change that is the invention and deployment of some kind of storage or carbon capture technology that, in the gentle phrasing of NREL, “has not yet been deployed at scale.” (Someone else might use the term “complete fantasy.”)
During the massive build up of wind and solar facilities envisioned in the Report, the 100% of fossil fuel infrastructure that must be kept around must also be fully maintained and ready to step in at a moment’s notice at any time during the year. The fossil fuel supply chain must be fully in place. The facilities must be fully replaced when they wear out. The full capital cost of the facilities must be paid — even though those facilities only operate by assumption about 10% of the time. If you think about it, that means that the capital charge for the plants per unit of electricity sold gets multiplied by 10. Somehow I can’t find any mention of that issue in this very lengthy and detailed Report.
Incidentally, I could quibble with the assertion that addition of more and more wind and solar facilities and some diurnal storage can get you anywhere near 90% electricity production from these sources. El Hierro Island has a 2x overbuild of wind turbines and plenty of storage from its water reservoir to supply demand for a full day; but they can’t consistently get past 50-60% of supply from the wind/storage system. These NREL guys claim to have sophisticated models that show they can get to the 80-90% range. Believe them if you want. What they don’t have is any functioning demonstration project. Building such a thing would require work that can’t be done on a laptop. We can’t expect government bureaucrats to do such things, now can we?
However, for these purposes, assume that their claim that they can get to 90% is right. It doesn’t make any difference. It could even be 95%. You still can’t get rid any of the fossil fuel infrastructure until some form of seasonal storage has been invented and deployed at scale.
Yet our government functionaries, under direction from the President, go about working to suppress fossil fuel production and infrastructure in every way they can think of. After all, they are the “experts.”
If they can’t meet 100% of demand I expect that the plan is to cut supply. That can have dire consequences in winter.
I think that the plan is to make this crap cost-effective by making the cost of energy insanely high.
That, or you will learn to live without energy, so that an idled windmill doesn’t bother you.
Oh, and Gore will still heat his house with coal and fly around in his private jet.
10% of 12 months is 1.2 months in a given year.
So, presumably, you might be required to do without electricity from mid-December until the end of January. Or all of July and half of August.
Remember, the people deciding this for you were not elected by any of us.
There are many brainwashed true believers, cultists in the Religion of Holy Gaia, and they put “saving the planet” far above “saving human lives.”
They will gladly see millions die freezing to death to save the earth from hypothetical carbon emissions.
But at the top, above the brainwashed true believers, it’s a depopulation move.
The same clique of globalist elites were also pushing “gain of function” research to come up with a pandemic to justify forcing the experimental mRNA death jabs on millions of “excess humans.” The long-term result will be a dramatic drop in human fertility.
They are also pushing to stop farming, stop fertilizer production, etc, again, putting saving “Gaia” far in the hypothetical future above saving actyal human lives here and now.
The brainwashed are the the army of useful idiots to the power brokers, the “influencers”, the environmental prophets.
“But hey, we’ve got 90% of this renewable transition thing solved. How hard could figuring out that last 10% really be?
And on that basis the government has embarked upon forcing the closure of large numbers of power plants that use fossil fuels .... as well as on suppressing exploration ....”
If it is that rosy, if it were that far along toward commercialization, in fact if even half factually true, the holy givernment would not have to mandate closure of anything ... why they could just step back and let free market forces see the great opportunity, and take over with the implementation so that fossil fuel would die a natural death because alternative energy would be so plentiful, so cheap, so [fill in the blank] ... like cars replaced covered wagons and horses, right?
The reality is that fossil fuels have made the research, development and manufacture of all alternative energy [whatever] possible. Those solar cells - made, transported, installed, electronic payments, phone calls between parties etc - couldn’t be done without fossil fuel. Fossil fuels allow the climate change zealots to continue to go to their meetings, use the internet to propagate their propaganda, cook their food, heat and light their habitats, etc.
True
I believe the Greenies plan is to reduce the olds population to 900 million from the current 8 billion by ceasing energy except for the elite. This bring the need for energy down considerably. It’s too simple.
Olds = worlds.
That is my thinking as well, or at least that's their first approach. Then if that's not enough they'll cut supply. Don't be surprised if both pricing and availability are based on some "social credit" score.
We need a two-pronged strategy. We have to win the energy battle both politically and as individual families (if do-able). The more of us freedom-loving Americans are mainly energy independent, the less of a weapon they have in using energy policies to control us -- which helps us win the political prong (making energy available and inexpensive like it used to be).
I’d like to know where and how do they get this 90% figure.
Is it provable? Hell, electric cars are exploding in people’s garages and stopping on highways with folks trapped inside.
Is this part of the 90%?
That’s all true, but misses the real impetus. The true-believer climate cultists are just the useful idiots for the depopulationists.
“WEF Adviser Yuval Harari: ‘We Just Don’t Need the Vast Majority of the Population’ in Today’s World”
“Now, fast forward to the early 21st century when we just don’t need the vast majority of the population,” he concluded, “because because the future is about developing more and more sophisticated technology, like artificial intelligence [and] bioengineering, Most people don’t contribute anything to that, except perhaps for their data, and whatever people are still doing which is useful, these technologies increasingly will make redundant and will make it possible to replace the people.”
I agree. See #5 and 12.
Don’t these “green energy” people realize that electricity is only part of the equation? Oil does so much more than provide gas & diesel. Like some comment said....Our energy provisions must be 100%; 90% won’t do. Relying on “green energy” could COST you 100% of what’s needed at a critical time. Ask the folks in Texas.
Don’t these “green energy” people realize that electricity is only part of the equation? Oil does so much more than provide gas & diesel. Like some comment said....Our energy provisions must be 100%; 90% won’t do. Relying on “green energy” could COST you 100% of what’s needed at a critical time. Ask the folks in Texas.
[[I think that the plan is to make this crap cost-effective by making the cost of energy insanely high]]
And then later, when the antichrist is on the scene, his ilk will say to,those who are freezing to death, starving to death etc, “do you want electricity? Gasoline? Heating fuel? All you have to do,is accept this mark and bow,down and worship me and you can have as much as you like”
Desperate families eho spent years eqrly freezi g to death and going wihtout food for extended periods of time will gladly flock to the gov trough for the goodies- goodies that we all now enjoy without having to bow a d worship a false prophet.
I am not sure that even that is what it is. I think they want you to die and stop eating and using what they think is theirs. Harvard is for their children, not yours.
The revolution of Fracking actually SCARES them. Suddenly, there is new abundance of oil for everyone, but they are more bothered by the fact that it is not all for them.
Not impossible at all...small modular nuclear fission reactors.
Can be retrofitted into any existing fossil fuel burning power plant.
I think climate change policies and laws are going to play heavily in the end times to the point where families will think they have no alternative but to accept the mark in order for them and their loved ones to just survive.
Ther will be casualties along the way like you mentioned, where the “useless eaters” (liberal term) are done away with, which will also play in end times on the psyche of those stil living but suffering. The old will definately be targeted, heck they alr3ady have been with scummy governors who intentionally sent sick people into nursing homes, resulting in mass casualties.
The left are gonna milk the global warming scam for all its worth, and I think th3 antichrist will use it heavily to to force people who want to live to take the mark. The global warming scam is custom made to force people to comply if they want to live. Fines carbon credits, taxes etc will all be l8nked to “saving mother earth” and will require a mark,of,some kind to allow folks to buy and sell in the end times.
If,you can’t prove that you aren’t “hurting mother earth” and that you are complying with climate change regulations and restrictions etc, no food or heating oil or electricity for you. This will be a world wide requirement.
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