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Peer-Reviewed Study Confirms Fatal Flaw in PCR Testing: 42% False Discovery Rate for SARS-CoV-2 nonQ-RT-PCR Test. This means COVID-19 Vaccine Outcomes Rate Data are Unreliable and Invalid
substack.com ^ | October 31, 2022 | James Lyons-Weiler

Posted on 11/02/2022 1:38:27 PM PDT by ransomnote

[H/T countRECOUNT]

All COVID-19 Vaccine Studies Used nonQ-RT-PCR to determine case status. All of the estimates of outcome are unreliable. This is the most important study we will ever likely publish in our journal.

NB: The toy math example to show how calculations of False Discovery Rate lead to bias in favor of false positives, an error has been corrected. Corrections and changes are in bold. The original article references to ‘false positive rate’ will also be updated to ‘false discovery rate’. We thank our readers for catching those errors!

We have just published a new study that shows that nonQ-RT-PCR (non-quantitative RT-PCR testing as used to diagnose COVID-19 from 2020 to the present day suffers a flaw that ultimately draws into question all of what has been reported on COVID-19 by official channels, including the results of COVID-19.

Specifically, assuming a 5% prevalence rate, the high false discovery rate (42%) of the use of nonQ-RT-PCR means

1. For every 50 true positives out of 1,000, a total of 86 people with or without SARS-CoV-2 infection or residual fragments will be reported. Of these, 36 of these will be false positives.

2. For every 50 true positives, 86 people without SARS-CoV-2 infection or residual fragments will be have to be isolated/quarantined. Of these, 36 will not be infected.

3. For every 50 true positives that are tested and found positive in-hospital, 86 people with or without SARS-CoV-2 infection or residual fragments will be told that they "have COVID-19". If the 36 false positive patients are hospitalized with other COVID-19 patients, they will likely then contract a SARS-CoV-2 infection.

4. The number of "cases" via positive PCR has been overstated by a factor of 72% (the original post read “80:1” assuming a prevalence of 5%).

5. This is true for generic case reporting up until May 2021 when CDC decided to reduce the PCR cycle threshold value (Ct) for the vaccinated to less than 27, leaving the unvaccinated rate biased by high false discovery rate of arbitrarily high Ct, biasing all reported rates in these two groups favoring cases in the unvaccinated from that point on.

6. This +72% bias is true in any clinical trial or any study that used arbitrarily high Ct values, INCLUDING THE VACCINE STUDIES.

As a direct result of this fatal flaw, combined with CDC’s gaff “PCR+ = COVID-19"?

There are no credible COVID-19 vaccine trial data.

In 2003, CDC took the credit for curtailing the SARS-CoV-1 transmission. Among the method of control they claimed were essential to this included SARS-CoV-1 strain-specific PCR primers used to produce amplicons that were sequenced. The presence of the sequence was used to infer, correctly, whether the PCR reaction had produced a population of SARS-CoV-1 DNA molecules that were sequenced using FDA-designated gold standard - Sanger Sequencing, or an arbitrary population of DNA molecules that represented off-target amplicons.

In 2020, for reasons no one has ever explained, the CDC changed the nucleic acid detection protocol to one that had never been tried before for control of respiratory viruses. Instead of using sequence-based detection, they merely used the results of a non-quantitative reverse transcriptase (RT)-PCR as evidence of the presence of the virus, and then, equally inexplicably, decided to determine that a positive nonQ-RT-PCR test result indicated disease (COVID-19).

Anyone trained in nucleic assays would know this would lead to excessive false positives. Somehow, per official narrative, zero false positive test results were expected by CDC - even with their own test, which had an arbitrarily high Ct cutoff of 40.

MORE AT LINK: https://popularrationalism.substack.com/p/peer-reviewed-study-confirms-fatal

 



TOPICS: Conspiracy; Health/Medicine; Miscellaneous; Science
KEYWORDS: clotshot; covidobsession; deathjab; dumbingdownfr; falsepositive; garbagesource; pleasegethelp; spamsomnote; substacktrash; vaccines
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To: ransomnote; Jane Long
I seem to recall somebody on this forum talking about exactly this for a couple of years now. If only I could remember who.

#ConspiraciesAreUs


21 posted on 11/02/2022 2:24:01 PM PDT by bagster ("Even bad men love their mamas".)
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To: bagster

Yep.

I posted some throwback threads, a few posts up.


22 posted on 11/02/2022 2:25:14 PM PDT by Jane Long (What we were told was a “conspiracy theory” in 2020 is now fact. 🙏🏻 Ps 33:12)
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To: ransomnote
Do you ever get tired of being right?


23 posted on 11/02/2022 2:29:43 PM PDT by bagster ("Even bad men love their mamas".)
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Comment #24 Removed by Moderator

To: bagster; ransomnote

LOL, so true for Ransomnote


25 posted on 11/02/2022 2:32:33 PM PDT by RinaseaofDs
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To: SoConPubbie

1. These are not peer reviewed journals — they are open sourced journals and fail “peer review”. The “peer review” per the website. The journal does not appear to be a journal as there is no in print circulation. We might as well call Q threads peer reviewed journals as it has the same stringent standards (confirmation bias, and it is “published” on the internet)

2. The linkage between PCR testing and vaccine efficacy is junk science. The actual science behind this is jibberish. But the headline confirms many people’s bias. This is hardly a smoking gun

3. I notice that in typical scientific method, no one has published the actual peer reviewed journal Ivermectin study that everyone who was against vaccination was breathlessly trumpeting earlier this year. A RCT (double blind) showed no statistical significance in time to recovery or death in patients randomized for early treatment to Ivermectin or placebo. It checked all the boxes, early treatment, CoVID (+), RCT. I was wondering if someone would post it — but of course not

3. As a poster down thread states — this blog posting does not state what journal it is in, and generally when one has to hunt for the source publication it is ot all that credible

Thank you for pinging me and letting me know about this article. It is an excellenct example of false authority and confirmational bias.

Have a happy Wednesday!


26 posted on 11/02/2022 2:38:34 PM PDT by gas_dr (Conditions of Socratic debate: Intelligence, Candor, and Good Will)
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To: ransomnote

“We” is the author of this substack piece and a colleague.

-

Sub stack does not publish peer reviewed articles.


27 posted on 11/02/2022 2:42:46 PM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: ransomnote

In the movie, The Real Anthony Fauci, I thought the guy who invented the PCR test said it should never even have been used for that purpose. A total waste of time.


28 posted on 11/02/2022 2:45:11 PM PDT by Twotone (While one may vote oneself into socialism one has to shoot oneself out of it.)
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To: ConservativeMind

These were never used in such a context. The vaccine was always “great to have/mandate.”
I assume you think anti-COVID vaccine people wielded undue authority over the Fauci’s of the world, and that governors like DeSantis smeared the vaccine and a mandate for it, using PCR false positives?

Get real.
*************
The vaccine should have been entirely voluntary; but that does not validate the ridiculous claims — especially prevalent on Gateway Pundit — that everyone who dies unexpectedly of heart trouble was killed by the vaccine.


29 posted on 11/02/2022 2:45:18 PM PDT by Socon-Econ (adi)
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To: Socon-Econ

I agree they aren’t responsible for all of those.


30 posted on 11/02/2022 2:47:06 PM PDT by ConservativeMind (Trump: Befuddling Democrats, Republicans, and the Media for the benefit of the US and all mankind.)
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To: SoConPubbie; ransomnote
…. After extensive and thorough blinded peer-review, the journal Science, Public Health Policy & the Law has now published Dr. Lee's work….

….. This work is some of the finest of Dr. Lee's career. In this study, Dr. Lee not only reports that he has verified false positives due to the misapplication of RT-PCR testing:

“PCR was invented to replicate, or to amplify, a target segment of DNA for DNA sequencing without going through a laborious bacterial cloning. PCR needs a pair of primers, single-stranded DNAs of about 20 bases long, to define the segment of target DNA to be replicated. But PCR primer/template hybridization is not fully sequence-specific because PCR primers may attach to nontarget DNAs and amplify unwanted DNAs if these DNAs are present and partially match the primers in nucleotide sequence. As a result, relying on PCR, especially the qPCR technology using Ct numbers as the surrogate for actual PCR product analysis, for disease diagnosis is bound to generate false positives. The experimental results of this work emphasize that while RT-qPCR is generating a significant number of false-positive test results at the current stage of the COVID-19 pandemic…”

He also provides this harrowing conclusion:

“The COVID-19 pandemic could have been avoided or curtailed by using the SARSCoV-1 specific RT-PCR primers in early 2020.” ….

https://popularrationalism.substack.com/p/peer-reviewed-study-confirms-fatal

Wow…right there, in the article, are actual links….to this PEER REVIEWED STUDY. (Imagine that! Gaslighters be darned.) ….

I’ll save time, for any lazies, and, post that link, here….

https://www.publichealthpolicyjournal.com/about-7

31 posted on 11/02/2022 2:48:47 PM PDT by Jane Long (What we were told was a “conspiracy theory” in 2020 is now fact. 🙏🏻 Ps 33:12)
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To: ransomnote; 2ndreconmarine; Fitzcarraldo; Covenantor; Mother Abigail; EBH; Dog Gone; ...
(from the author's report) :" Specifically, assuming a 5% prevalence rate, the high false discovery rate (42%) of the use of nonQ-RT-PCR means

1. For every 50 true positives out of 1,000, a total of 86 people with or without SARS-CoV-2 infection or residual fragments will be reported.
Of these, 36 of these will be false positives.

2. For every 50 true positives, 86 people without SARS-CoV-2 infection or residual fragments will be have to be isolated/quarantined.
Of these, 36 will not be infected.

3. For every 50 true positives that are tested and found positive in-hospital, 86 people with or without SARS-CoV-2 infection or residual fragments
will be told that they "have COVID-19".
If the 36 false positive patients are hospitalized with other COVID-19 patients, they will likely then contract a SARS-CoV-2 infection.

4. The number of "cases" via positive PCR has been overstated by a factor of 72% (the original post read “80:1” assuming a prevalence of 5%).

5. This is true for generic case reporting up until May 2021 when CDC decided to reduce the PCR cycle threshold value (Ct) for the vaccinated to less than 27,
leaving the unvaccinated rate biased by high false discovery rate of arbitrarily high Ct, biasing all reported rates in these two groups favoring cases in the unvaccinated from that point on.

6. This +72% bias is true in any clinical trial or any study that used arbitrarily high Ct values, INCLUDING THE VACCINE STUDIES.

As a direct result of this fatal flaw, combined with CDC’s gaff “PCR+ = COVID-19"?
There are no credible COVID-19 vaccine trial data. "

(My Comment) : All bold and Italics shown above are mine
The PCR tests are statistically unreliable and misidentified infection at a significantly high rate
Please read the entire report for your own edification.

32 posted on 11/02/2022 3:23:27 PM PDT by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: yldstrk
The World Health Organization denounced the PCR test the afternoon of Jan 20, 2021…Bad Orange Man gone.

The CDC denounced the PCR test in December of 2021 a few days before Christmas.

33 posted on 11/02/2022 5:33:00 PM PDT by Deaf Smith (When a Texan takes his chances, chances will be taken that's for sure.)
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To: gas_dr
...this blog posting does not state what journal it is in, and generally when one has to hunt for the source publication it is ot all that credible

I found it. It's Science, Public Health Policy & the Law.

The author of this piece is the Editor in Chief and a prolific contributor, and most of the "studies" are anti-vax rants.

The MMR autism link is real, measles isn't really so bad and we should ditch the vaccine for it, big pharma is manipulating the military to mandate vaccines, VAERS sucks, that kind of thing.

Also a few shout-outs to RFK Jr.

All in all about what you would expect.

34 posted on 11/02/2022 5:59:35 PM PDT by semimojo
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To: yldstrk

The fact that there is no uniform testing level for the PCR test re CV 19 means it was unscientific at best. Add in that the test cycles varied between States meant it was designed to choose where and when Cases Cases Cases would peak and fall.

The clot shots killed more people than the Covid, that much is clear though people will deny this.


35 posted on 11/02/2022 6:10:16 PM PDT by Glad2bnuts ("None of the people I know who didn't take take the Jab regrets their decision" ZERO)
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To: Socon-Econ

How were they used to discredit the mRNA treatments. They were NOT vaccines, and what discredits the vaxx is it is more dangerous than getting the stupid virus. Although the PTB in the medical field will deny this, or lose their jobs I might add.


36 posted on 11/02/2022 6:12:47 PM PDT by Glad2bnuts ("None of the people I know who didn't take take the Jab regrets their decision" ZERO)
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To: lizma2

In WA state they didn’t know what cycle they were using on the tests. It was likely 37, that gets you in the 90% of false positives. Some say the tests were PCR 43. They kept no records though, strange for scientists to destroy records.


37 posted on 11/02/2022 6:14:48 PM PDT by Glad2bnuts ("None of the people I know who didn't take take the Jab regrets their decision" ZERO)
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To: Socon-Econ
The false positives were obvious when those testing positive had no symptoms.

The false positives kept the fear going and were used to discredit the vaccine.

Johns Hopkins disagrees with you.

38 posted on 11/02/2022 6:20:00 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: Jane Long; gas_dr

And an indirect response to your response gas_dr.


39 posted on 11/02/2022 6:24:02 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
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To: Glad2bnuts

“strange for scientists to destroy records.”

Not if they’re politicos.

Live in the DC area and have seen this stuff over and over.

Corruption is winning. We are going Venezuela. We are going Cuba


40 posted on 11/02/2022 6:28:47 PM PDT by lizma2
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