Posted on 09/26/2022 11:46:44 AM PDT by UMCRevMom@aol.com
The so-called "referendums" of 4 Ukrainian regions are coming to an end. Information has already appeared in the official Russian media that laws on the admission of new territories to the Russian Federation will be adopted within the next few days after the announcement of the results.
But what will happen next?
Naturally, in any situation there are several options for development.
1. The most likely one is that Putin will start waving a "nuclear club" and demand the withdrawal of the Armed Forces from the territory of these regions. First of all - Donetsk and Lugansk.
Parts of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions are necessary for him to have a land corridor to the Crimea.
Although it is possible that he will leave a "window for maneuvers" for trading with the West, still repeating only about the "liberation" of Donetsk and Luhansk regions as the goals of a "special operation".
Putin really needs an operational pause, because the main part of the combat-ready forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation has already been immobilized or put out of action, and the remaining ones are not enough to achieve even minimal tasks to hold the front line. Putler directly acknowledged this in a recent address, thus justifying the "partial mobilization".
Naturally, Ukraine will not take such a suicidal step, knowing perfectly well that Putin's true intentions are to complete the troops, mobilize, provide the necessary weapons during the winter break and strike again, if not in winter (we recall Debaltseve 2015), then in spring. 300 thousand is, of course, not the final figure. And it is not designed to strengthen the defense along the front line.
2. But what will happen if Ukraine and the West do not agree to the Kremlin's terms? Will they deliver a nuclear strike ?
It seems to me that in the coming weeks - a month - it is extremely unlikely. This is the "last argument" that Putin uses only when defeat at the front is obvious. Not yet. In order to avoid new breakthroughs of the APU, mobilization is being carried out.
There are huge risks for Putin - to be completely isolated. And without the markets of China and India, it will be impossible to maintain economic stability. By the way, *China has also joined the Budapest Memorandum. And he is not interested in the collapse of the world order, which allowed him to achieve unprecedented economic success.
So while Putin is watching the reaction. No one recognizes the annexation, not even Turkey and China. Therefore, shouting that this is "Russian territory" - which no one recognizes as such and thereby justifying the right to launch a nuclear strike - is suicide, which Putin cannot fail to understand.
But if the successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the battlefields will increase, the risks of striking with a tactical nuclear charge will increase. But this is closer to winter.
So far, the world is entering a series of extremely important elections in the two most powerful powers of the world - the PRC (on October 16, the CPC congress, at which Xi can be re-elected for a 3rd term) and in the United States to Congress (November 8).
A lot will depend on their results both personally for Putin (China) and for Ukraine.
Therefore, Putin decided not to wait and went ahead of the curve in order to negotiate from a position of strength and try to gain a foothold in the captured positions by the end of the year in order to justify the expediency of the war in front of the population, which is now actively sending absolutely unprepared to Ukraine for slaughter.
Of course, there are more options for the development of events. But these are the main ones in the short term.
Also, a lot will depend on whether the protests in the Russian Federation against the mobilization in the North Caucasus will give results. In this case, internal destabilization in the Russian Federation may accelerate and there will be chances of a "palace coup".
We are entering a new turbulence after a relative summer lull. The war is gaining momentum and moving into a new phase - a full-scale one.
I fully admit that Putin, after the annexation attempt, may officially declare war if Ukraine and the West do not agree to his "peace plan".
So we are following the development of the situation not only at the front, but also in the Russian Federation itself.
The continued denazification Ukraine. Heads up ZelenskyyIdiot, Azov’s, Kraken, etc., etc.
The continued destruction of Ukraine’s ability to wage war/conflict.
Russia will add roughly over 100,000 km2 and over 5 million plus people to the Russian Federation.
Russia will control the territory that produces 95 percent of Ukrainian GDP.
The Russians will continue to operate methodically and with deliberation.
Russia will continue to bleed to death Ukrainian forces.
The hammer is going to drop, hard.
The Russians are in no rush.
Just one of many that reported on those leaked Ukrainian documents put all over the net.
Unconfirmed leaked data from the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Staff:
- The AFU are only 43-48% complete;
- medical workers at the limit of their strength: the seriously wounded are transported to Europe;
- small arms and bulletproof vests are not enough;
https://twitter.com/Russ_Warrior/status/1555546218608365568
This is backed up by other reports.
And Ukraine reportedly lost up (again, up to) to 12k soldiers in taking an area the size of Rhode Island while Russia has taken more land recently in Southern Ukraine.
Ukraine has lost at least 50% of its regular, trained people, and had no choice but to go all-in on an offensive attack.
1984-style propaganda from libtard MSM 24/7 on Ukraine’s behalf is taking place. Ukraine can achieve little militarily against Russia. The ‘resistance’ is soldiers masquerading as “volunteers” helping Ukrainian soldiers.
There was no “Kharkiv counteroffensive”.
They took, according to Democracy Now, The Guardian, and others 1,000 sq km, not Zel’s 6k sq km claim, an area the size of Rhode Island but they lost way too much to make it worth it, losing lots of heavy armor for a few towns.
Here we are actually debating “will Putin use nukes or not”. If Putin crosses the line, that’s it. One in a hundred, one a thousand, what’s the chance? Is it worth the risk? Over what? To keep ALL of what recently has been Ukraine open for the Obama graft machine? We’ve spent $75B already and are as close to nuclear war as we’ve been in 60 years and I can find 25 other brutalized countries or peoples in the world who are more deserving of America’s, World’s Policeman, attention than this corrupt hole.
The Brussels bullies will have to explain the casualties with "a tragic bus accident" on a sight-seeing trip to Warsaw, or something like that.
What to expect from Putin because of the “annexation” of new Ukrainian territories?
—
Dead collaborators?
“The Russians will continue to operate methodically and with deliberation.”
YES: Putin will continue his pattern of “Transnistrian” policy to continue to create controls ‘zones’ of frozen conflicts in Moldova (Transnistria region), Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia), and in Ukraine annexed Crimean peninsula and the Donbas.
This wider pattern of created separatist conflicts creates corruption and criminality as ‘Trojan horses’ to block progress in reform-minded periphery countries.
Putin tactics are part of his geopolitical strategy creating conflict zones to prevent countries from entering NATO and/or integrating into the European Union because it CONFLICTS with Putin’s imperialistic plan to regain strategic points of the LOST RUSSIAN EMPIRE.
‘In Ukraine’s South, Fierce Fighting and Deadly Costs’
https://archive.ph/MtHyd#selection-383.0-383.52
‘In Ukraine’s South, Fierce Fighting and Deadly Costs’
https://archive.ph/MtHyd#selection-383.0-383.52
Bumped for common sense, logical reasoning and your high IQ.
Not sure exactly what that change entails, but it sounds like an industrial strength can of whoop-ass being opened.
The residents of Kiev will be safer sitting in a lawn chair on Clearwater beach than in their apartments, should NATO strike the newly liberated areas of Dunbas. After all it doesn't matter a wit what NATO feels about the referendum, rather it's how Moscow perceives it.
Yes.
Mr. Mercouris talks about it in his recent vid.
‘Russia Counterblow, NYT Admits Ukraine Massive Losses in Stalled Offensive; UK Teeters on The Brink’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjkOTAPqwj8
I heard this also. The gloves are coming off.
The fear and desperation among Putinists is palpable. They fantasize about nukes because they can see much Luhansk will soon be deoccupied in the manner that Kharkiv recently was. There is nothing they can do but watch as a broken Russian army is smashed to pieces by Ukrainian “farmers and miners.”
The West must, nevertheless, make unceasing preparations for Russian nuclear attacks. Such attacks would most likely be carried out with the smallest yield warheads that they can dig up from old storage. They probe and push, impulsively, obsessively, incrementally and repeatedly. That’s what Russian politicians and generals do over the generations so far with their bully mentality.
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