Posted on 09/09/2022 11:20:17 AM PDT by Cathi
Scott Ritter, [9/9/2022 7:19 AM] [ Video ]
Scott Ritter, [9/9/2022 7:40 AM]
Some Comments on the Military Situation in Ukraine as of September 9, 2022
I have been asked to comment on the situation in eastern-southern Ukraine following the commencement of a major counteroffensive by the Ukrainian armed forces (UAF). Given the fluidity of the situation on the ground, I will avoid trying to conduct a detailed analysis of the specific actions that have taken place, are taking place, and will take place. I am thousands of miles removed from the battlefield and am in receipt of incomplete and often contradictory pieces of information. Any effort to try and paint a complete picture of this battlefield would be, in my case at least, a fool’s errand.
I will start with first principles. War is a complicated business. Any effort that overlooks this reality when promulgating “solutions” to problems on the battlefield is self-nullifying.
Both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries are large, professional organizations backed by institutions designed to produce qualified warriors. Both militaries are well led, well equipped, and well prepared to undertake the missions assigned them. They are among the largest military organizations in Europe. The Russian military is staffed by officers of the highest caliber, who have undergone extensive training in the military arts. They are experts in strategy, operations, and tactics. They know their business. The Ukrainian military has undergone a radical transformation in the years since 2014, where Soviet-era doctrine has been replaced by a hybrid doctrine which incorporates NATO doctrine and methodologies. This transformation has been accelerated dramatically since the outset of the Special Military Operation, with the Ukrainian military virtually transitioning from older Soviet-era heavy equipment to an arsenal which more closely mirrors the table of organization and equipment of the NATO nations which are providing billions of dollars of equipment and training.
The Ukrainians are, like their Russian counterparts, military professional’s adept at the necessity of adapting to battlefield realities. The Ukrainian experience, however, is complicated by the complexity associated by trying to meld two disparate doctrinal approaches to war (Soviet-era and modern NATO) under combat conditions. This complexity creates opportunities for mistakes, and mistakes on the battlefield often result in casualties—significant casualties.
Russia has fought three different style wars in the six months that the Special Military Operation has been underway. The first was a war of maneuver, designed to seize as much territory as possible to shape the battlefield militarily and politically. The Special Military Operation was conducted with approximately 200,000 Russian and allied forces, who were up against an active-duty Ukrainian military of some 260,000 troops backed by up to 600,000 reservists. The standard 3:1 attacker-defender ratio did not apply—the Russians sought to use speed, surprise, and audacity to minimize Ukraine’s numerical advantage, and in the process hoping for a rapid political collapse in Ukraine that would prevent any major fighting between the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces.
This plan succeeded in some areas (in the south, for instance), and did fix Ukrainian troops in place and cause the diversion of reinforcements away from critical zones of operation. But it failed strategically—the Ukrainians did not collapse, but rather solidified, ensuring a long, hard fight ahead.
The second phase of the Russian operation had the Russians regroup to focus on the conquest/liberation of the Donbas region. Here, Russia adapted its operational methodology, using its superiority in firepower to conduct a slow, deliberate advance against Ukrainian forces dug into extensive defensive networks and, in doing so, achieving unheard of casualty ratios that had ten or more Ukrainians being killed or wounded for every Russian casualty.
While Russia was slowly advancing against dug in Ukrainian forces, the US and NATO provided Ukraine with billions of dollars of military equipment, including the equivalent of several armored divisions of heavy equipment (tanks, armored fighting vehicles, artillery, and support vehicles), along with extensive operational training on this equipment at military installations outside Ukraine. In short, while Russia was busy destroying the Ukrainian military on the battlefield, Ukraine was busy reconstituting that army, replacing destroyed units with fresh forces that were extremely well equipped, well trained, and well led.
The second phase of the conflict saw Russia destroy the old Ukrainian army. In its stead, Russia faced mobilized territorial and national units, supported by reconstituted NATO-trained forces. But the bulk of the NATO trained forces were held in reserve.
These are the forces that have been committed in the current phase of fighting—a new third phase. Russia finds itself in a full-fledged proxy war with NATO, facing a NATO-style military force that is being logistically sustained by NATO, trained by NATO, provided with NATO intelligence, and working in harmony with NATO military planners.
What this means is that the current Ukrainian counteroffensive should not be viewed as an extension of the phase two battle, but rather the initiation of a new third phase which is not a Ukrainian-Russian conflict, but a NATO-Russian conflict.
The Ukrainian battleplan has “Made in Brussels” stamped all over it. The force composition was determined by NATO, as was the timing of the attacks and the direction of the attacks. NATO intelligence carefully located seams in the Russian defenses, and identified critical command and control, logistics, and reserve concentration nodes that were targeted by Ukrainian artillery which operates on a fire control plan created by NATO.
The tactics used by Ukraine appear to be completely new. Probing attacks are launched to force the Russians to reveal their defensive fires, which are then suppressed by Ukrainian counterbattery fires directed by drones and/or counterbattery radars. Then highly mobile Ukrainian forces rapidly advance through identified seams in the Russian defense, driving deep into largely unprotected territory. These main columns are supported by raids carried out by vehicle mounted troops which strike Russian rear area positions, further disrupting any Russian response.
In short, the Ukrainian army that Russia is facing in Kherson and around Kharkov is unlike any Ukrainian opponent it has previously faced. Advantage, Ukraine. Russia, however, is a capable military opponent. The potential for a Ukrainian counteroffensive has been known for some time. To think that Russia has been taken completely unawares is to be dismissive of the professionalism of the Russian armed forces.
But there are some operational realities that accrue when Russia has self-limited itself to a forces structure of around 200,000 men, especially when fighting on a battlefield as large as the one that exists in Ukraine. Ther are simply not enough forces to go around, and as a result, Russia has deployed forces in low-priority sectors more thinly than would be otherwise advisable. These forces occupy strongpoints that are designed to cover the gaps between strongpoints with firepower. The Russians have also identified forces who would reinforce these thinly held areas of the front as required.
It is possible to have a situation where Russia anticipated the potential for a concerted Ukrainian counterattack, and yet was still taken by surprise at the combination of new factors that presented themselves once this attack materialized. The speed of the Ukrainian advance was unexpected, as were the tactics used by Ukraine. The level of operational planning support and intelligence provided by NATO in support of this counterattack likewise appeared to have taken the Russians by surprise.
But the Russian army is extremely adaptive. They have shown a willingness to save lives by giving up territory, allowing the Ukrainians to expend resources and capability without conducting a decisive engagement with Russian troops. Where required, Russian troops matched the audacity and courage of the Ukrainian forces with their own courage-laced tenacity, holding out in an effort to delay the Ukrainian advance while other Russian forces redeployed.
At the end of the day, it appears that Ukraine with exhaust its carefully gathered reserve forces before the bulk of Russia’s response engages. The Kherson e=offensive appears to have stalled, and whether by design or accident, the Kharkov offensive is shaping up to become a trap for the Ukrainian forces committed, who find themselves in danger of being cut off and destroyed. At the end of the day, this counteroffensive will end in a strategic Ukrainian defeat. Russia will restore the front to its original positions and be able to resume offensive operations. The Ukrainians, meanwhile, will have squandered their reserves, limiting their ability to respond to a new Russian advance.
This doesn’t mean the war is over. Ukraine continues to receive billions of dollars of military assistance, and currently has tens of thousands of troops undergoing extensive training in NATO nations. There will be a fourth phase, and a fifth phase…as many phases as necessary before Ukraine either exhausts its will to fight and die, or NATO exhausts its ability to continue supplying the Ukrainian military. I said back in April that the decision by the US to provide billions of dollars of military assistance was ‘a game changer.” What we are witnessing in Ukraine today is how this money has changed the game. The result is more dead Ukrainian and Russian forces, more dead civilians, and more destroyed equipment.
But the end game remains the same—Russia will win. Its just that the cost for extending this war has become much higher for all parties involved. Scott Ritter
The Biden boys DIDN’T want Russia to invade Ukraine. The Invasion actually screwed over their plans to quitely steal USAID money and shake down Oligarchs.
Putin started the war. He’s paranoid, delusional and surrounded by Yes Men who told him he’d be a great historical figure and poke Biden’s boys in the eye.
Without Putin, the war never would have happened.
I think the lies are at a height at this point both sides in this latest uke offensive
I think the Ukes no question have gained a bulge east
I think the Russians decided to withdraw for various practical reasons and retreated not regrouped as they claim
I think the Ukes have paid a high price for this victory
I think Russian losses despite the hyperbole from the western has been minimal and it was an organized retreat
I think if Russia planned to annex west of the Oskal they failed
I scout scores of sources mostly the few middle road sources and eastern and third party
I confess i only look at globalist headlines since they are sadly so unreliable
Sad when TASS is more trustworthy than Sunday Times
That’s my thinks
Ritter is a convicted pedophile.
Just saying.
L
NATO tried to put a boot on Russia’s neck through the Maidan coup. Maybe you support Joe Biden and the globalist elitists for which he is a figurehead. Most of us here don’t. For all its faults Russia under independent rule is better than Russia enslaved like the rest of us.
EnderWiggin1970 this isn’t directed at you and its pretty long so I don’t expect you to read it. I understand the power of the deepstate and we all need to fight against it, but this war isn’t really a fight for or against the deep state.
The Enslavement the average Russian feels is much worse than we have ever had it.
I still have guns and can post Funny memes about Biden and not go to jail. Does the average Russian under Putin have any guns? ... because I know thy can’t post anti Putin memes and not get a visit from the police.
I don’t support Joe Biden or the Globalists elites, but We (the US) screwed up Ukraine through our CIA and USAID ten years ago.
The average Ukrainian didn’t want that and its average Ukrainians fighting to keep from being second class Russians.
Put yourself is a Ukrainians shoes.
1) Some Obamabots came over in 2012 and gave you Hopium you could have a freer less corrupt society, where you complain to the government without being arrested and thrown in Jail.
2) they believed this, got rid of their previous terrible Putin puppet government, and things started looking up and more western investment was flowing into the country. They got software programmer jobs or management Jobs at the VW factory.
3) Then Putin invades. They asked us for help, because WE convinced them everything will be fine if they turned west and “Putin wasn’t dumb enough to invade”.
If we turn our backs on them, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Muldova, Poland and Finland are next. Putins State TV mouth pieces have said as much.
Our best option now, is to Quagmire the shit out of Putin. China might see this and think “Nope!” too, Kadafi said “Nope!” & gave up his nuke program when he saw how Saddam got crushed.
This isn’t about maintaining the power of Global Elites, They lost ALL power over Ukraine when Putin attacked. Now the people of Ukraine are back up for grabs.
Do you want them to be gun toting Mega Chad allies of the American right (like the Baltics), or disarmed, Second class Russians?
After the war, the Global Elites will all try to go back into Ukraine, but they will all now have personal AK-74’s and know how to use them, which the global elites worst nightmare.
After March, it became obvious Ukraine was going to go bad for Russia. They didn’t win the popular support of the people and they proved to be pretty weak logistically. Sure they can turn cities into rubble, but that won’t allow you to take over a country of 30 million people that don’t want you there.
In the last week, the Russia suffered a crushing defeat, further stengthening Ukrainian resolve to win. We (American Conservatives that are against global elites) really don’t have a choice now on who to support, because Ukraine isn’t going to lose the war.
Unlike the Iraqi’s and Afghani’s, the Ukrainians are actually fighting for their country without us doing all the heavy lifting. They are a dream ally - here’s a weapon, protect your country.
Russia craves security, particularly against NATO encroachment. The average Ukrainian just wants peace. Both these desires are easy to achieve, simply by giving NATO the boot. It is the warmongering, aggressive West that is the problem here, keeping the war going and running up the toll of suffering and death.
Ukraine is fighting for themselves. They will fight to the death and will never let Russia take over THEIR nation.
If Russia succeeds, there will be an infinite insurgency that will eventually require UN peace keepers. Russia realizing they are in a quagmire and look for an exit strategy is the best possible outcome at this point.
They are beginning to realize this, just now.
Meanwhile, in Camden AR, HIMARS orders are through the roof.
Neocons believe in pre-emptive wars. MAGA believes in peace though overwhelming US made firepower. Cindy Sheehan believed killing people is wrong.
Which one are you?
Your position implies a knee-jerk anti-Russian sentiment, which is understandable enough but does not allow for the idea that Russia might not always be in the wrong, and that the West has come under the control of some very evil people. If Russian is thrown back now, that does nothing to solve the real security concerns they've been raising at least since 2008. Over and over they warned NATO not to push too far with their expansionism. There's a good article from some months ago in The National Interest on the causes of the Ukraine war that goes into some detail on this.
So if Russian is pushed back, their security concerns remain. An arrogant West is unlikely to listen or make the necessary concessions for a lasting peace. My take is that just pushes them to double down at the next available opportunity. Maybe they go nuclear at the outset in "round 2." Maybe they wage a wider war to push the West to negotiate.
I've given $20K personally to help Ukrainian relief efforts, so my first interest in this topic is for the civilians caught in this mess. It's just that even before the National Interest article I mentioned above, I came to realize the Russian acts in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine didn't appear in a vacuum. They were responses to Western aggression that is understandably downplayed or ignored by Western propaganda organs. Therein lies the root cause.
Helping our allies with weapons to fight off imperialist aggressors isn’t imperial aggression. It’s the opposite.
Neocons believe in Pre-emptive war. Isn’t Putin a Neocon?
The EU/NATO isn’t Putin’s security concern. Before he invaded Ukraine they were all content to drink party and buy gas from him.
They’d all like to go back to drinking and partying and buying gas from him.
Now that Ukraine has demonstrated they can Blitzcreig, too, I’m confident there will be a negotiated settlement.
The Biden clowns that went to the Woodrow Wilson school of Fing up the world will try to make it punitive against Putin, but they’ll be overruled, Putin will throw 5-10 generals under the bus, give away some free gas and we all go back to Feb 22.
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