Posted on 07/15/2022 5:08:13 PM PDT by nickcarraway
Copper the balloon popper for 2050 net-zero goals according to S&P
In a world ever more hungry for copper, a looming shortage could end green energy transition plans before they even get off the ground.
Copper is so central to transitioning from fossil fuels to sustainable energy, says a report from S&P Global, that worldwide demand is likely to double by 2035 from 25 million metric tons to 50; no matter the scenario, S&P said it's unlikely the world will be able to meet it.
"The record-high level of demand would be sustained and continue to grow to 53 million metric tons in 2050 – more than all the copper consumed in the world between 1900 and 2021," S&P Global said.
From oil to minerals In a 2021 report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) described a new energy paradigm slowly replacing fossil fuels – minerals, the most important being copper.
Described in the S&P report as "the metal of electrification," copper used in electric vehicles, wind, solar, and battery projects will drive much of the increase in demand. Infrastructure upgrades, like wide-scale deployment of EV charging stations, are also predicted to contribute.
The use of copper in electrified versions of traditional products – like EVs – is a massive contributor to the rise in demand, the study found.
Internal combustion vehicles of all sizes have around 24 kilograms of copper in their powertrains, the report's data shows. Swapping internal combustion for fuel cells leads to a slight increase in copper, but swapping fuel cells for batteries is where things start to really scale up. A light duty battery-powered EV (BEV) powertrain requires 60kg of copper. A medium-duty BEV requires 139kg, while a heavy-duty BEV needs a whopping 425kg of copper.
Copper requirements for different types of powertrains The kilograms of copper needed for different types of vehicles
The obvious solution to this inevitable problem would be to open more copper mines. That would definitely help offset coming shortages, but the catch is that those offsets would come too late.
"It currently takes 16 years, on average, to develop a new mine, meaning that a new mine seeking permission today would not become productive in time to accommodate the demand spike," S&P said, quoting an IEA study.
Substitution of other metals – like aluminum – and recycling of copper reportedly won't be enough to meet projected demand either, S&P's data shows.
Demand is already high too. Copper, often considered an economic bellwether due to its use in multiple industries, spiked in price at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Panasonic picks Kansas for $4b EV battery plant 2050 carbon emission goals need nuclear to succeed, says International Energy Agency Fusion won't avert need for climate change 'sacrifice', says nuclear energy expert Supermicro CEO would like it if you could all build new, greener datacenters Yet like other industries in the pandemic, copper prices have now dropped to late-2020 prices; another indicator of wider economic contraction.
If the world makes the leap from oil to batteries, copper shortages could also cause problems far beyond the manufacturing industries: The S&P report predicts copper "may emerge as a key destabilizing threat to international security."
Two scenarios, zero solutions The study's predictions are based on two model scenarios, one that makes optimistic assumptions about mining and refining capacity and recycling, and another that projects the current copper industry into the future.
Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, said that 2050 net-zero goals will be difficult to meet. "The world has never produced so much copper in such a short time frame as would be required. On current trends, the doubling of global copper demand by 2035 would result in significant shortfalls."
Were things to continue as is, S&P predicts shortfalls reaching 10 million metric tons by 2035. By 2050, the world would only be producing 20 percent of the copper needed to meet net-zero goals.
Under its optimistic plan, deficits would still be present, but much smaller. The world would only need 1.6 million metric tons in 2035. Under either scenario, S&P said supply required to meet net-zero demands simply isn't there.
Does S&P have any tips for avoiding disaster? No, it's making no policy recommendations, only contributing to the dialog on how to reach 2050 net-zero goals.
It does, however, mention a series of operational challenges hindering growth in copper production. Infrastructure limitations, permitting and litigation, demands of local stakeholders, environmental standards, taxes and regulation, contract politicization, labor relations and resource nationalization strategies are all cited as roadblocks.
"Unless new supply for the metal of electrification comes online in a timely way, with clear political support and strategic commitment, Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 will likely remain out of reach," the report said. ®
we must stop strip mining it to save Mother Earth and in fact we need to keep it buried. We need to sequester the copper that is already out there and bury it so it can return to the Earth! We can't wait! This needs to be done immediately!
"[S&P Global is] making no policy recommendations, only contributing to the dialog on how to reach 2050 net-zero goals.
Now if all these analysts and policy wonks would step back, take a deep breath, and question the very thing underlies this ridiculous "net-zero goal" -- the notion that man is causing the climate to change by burning fossil fuels. If people would finally realize this is a hoax, then we could stop the insane pell mell rush to remake every aspect of all of our energy-based systems.
it actually pays to tie on to the big end of a harness in a car and pull till no more comes out (with a machine o course)
Does this mean we’re going to have people stripping wire and plumbing from homes again?
Heh, that’s one of N problems with the engineering-challenged left’s energy plans. And N is a really big number.
I am in Arizona, the Copper State. We have have copper mines here. Time to reopen? Hmmm?
I know where there is a whole lot of copper..not in AZ either.
Some of it is up to 96% pure.
But sorry..just about that whole area is a nation historical site now.
No can do. Might endanger the marl-crested Gobson's titwipe, one of the most endangered species in the world.
From the title of the following FR link, does anybody know if the claimed 500,000 pounds of earth really has to be dug to find enough lithium for ONE EV lithium battery?
Is driving an electric car immoral? Here's what they DON'T tell you 'You dig up 500,000 pounds of the earth's crust for just one battery' (6.19.22)
Never mind all the new large copper wires needed for charging stations.
Of course there are going to be a lot less cars in the road. Take a bus or a train. Bike.
The “copper shortage” could be solved immediately if the research labs can make available a “room-temperature” Superconductor material that has ZERO impedance for the flow of electrical current. There are a number of discoveries that allow such a superconductor to operate at very low temperatures, but only in the presence of liquid helium, which exists only about 4 degrees K above absolute zero.
Copper is actually a kind of clumsy way of transmitting electrical energy. but it is just about the best available for today’s engineering.
What we need is a good solar flare like in 1859. That would fix things fast.
“I am in Arizona, the Copper State. We have have copper mines here. Time to reopen? Hmmm?”
Naa, the Globalist policy, for quite a while now, is to absolutely TRASH Third World countries for the resources we need to cut down fossil fuel usage.
” ...Might endanger the marl-crested Gobson’s titwipe, one of the most endangered species in the world. “
And mighty tasty, I might add, in a nice béchamel sauce with some broiled leeks and parsnips; ... and a nice “kee-an-tee”. Let me know if you see any, I’m giving a dinner.
Also factor in the increase in copper needs to wire and install all those chargers.
Keweenaw County, Michigan, eh?
If copper is in such demand, then why has the price for it DROPPED, not risen?
Daniel Yergan - leftist journalist. Trust but verify, twice!!
Copper country.
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