Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Meet the man who predicted the Ukraine war 30 years ago
American Thinker ^ | 2 Mar, 2022 | Francis P. Sempa

Posted on 03/02/2022 4:11:39 AM PST by MtnClimber

The Russia-Ukraine war will likely end in one of three ways: Russia will annex all of Ukraine and reincorporate it into Russia; Russia will install a puppet regime in Kyiv and exercise effective political control over Ukraine's foreign policy; or Russia will militarily occupy parts of Ukraine and suffer the resistance of an insurgency that may be armed and supported by outside powers. Regardless of which scenario plays out, this is and will be a tragic and unnecessary war — entirely preventable, if only the Europeans and Americans had heeded the warnings of George F. Kennan about the likely unintended consequences of NATO expansion.

SNIP

Kennan during his long career as a diplomat and historian (he died in March 2005 at the age of 101), wrote several books and numerous articles about Russia, including historical works on Russian diplomacy in the late 19th and early 20th centuries and Soviet foreign policy during the Cold War. He had perhaps the most important qualities of a diplomat, statesman, and historian: he was able to look at events through a Russian/Soviet lens, to see things from a Russian/Soviet perspective.

SNIP

Kennan used that insight in the late 1990s to warn his countrymen and Europe against expanding NATO in the wake of the West's victory in the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Clinton administration had made it known that NATO would be inviting Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic to join the alliance. Kennan's first public pronouncement on NATO expansion was made in October 1996 in an event held at Columbia University's Harriman Institute. He decried efforts to expand NATO as a "strategic blunder of potentially epic proportions."

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: History; Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: europe; johnkennan; kennan; nato; russia; ukraine; war
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-47 next last

1 posted on 03/02/2022 4:11:39 AM PST by MtnClimber
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

If the USA told China that Ukraine joining NATO was a done deal, knowing they would tell Putin, then it was probably Biden’s handlers that provoked the war.


2 posted on 03/02/2022 4:11:50 AM PST by MtnClimber (For photos of Colorado scenery and wildlife, click on mycreen name for my FR home page.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

3 posted on 03/02/2022 4:15:29 AM PST by Travis McGee (EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

Ukraine was denied entry to NATO in 2008 by Germany and France.

Ukraine is not going to be a member of NATO.

Fake News to justify a Despot’s territorial war of expansion.


4 posted on 03/02/2022 4:17:40 AM PST by Justa (If where you came from is so great then why aren't Floridians moving there?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

NATO expansion toward Russia during their period of weakness after the fall of the USSR acted like a slow-motion Versaille Treaty, spurring Russia to rearm with new generations of weapons, while America and NATO wasted their militaries on useless sandbox wars and ruined them with the woke CRT-globo-homo agenda.


5 posted on 03/02/2022 4:18:07 AM PST by Travis McGee (EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

So provocation = justification?

Like buying a new car justifies car-jacking?

Hood Rat morality.


6 posted on 03/02/2022 4:20:58 AM PST by Justa (If where you came from is so great then why aren't Floridians moving there?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

Former Soviet satellite countries don’t need NATO, they could just form their own military pact friendly to NATO and Russia would still be mad.


7 posted on 03/02/2022 4:21:41 AM PST by \/\/ayne (I regret that I have but one subscription cancellation notice to give to my local newspaper)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Justa
NATO had nuclear-armed MRBMs in Turkey in 1962.

Khrushchev was in the process of putting his own MRBMs in Cuba after our failed Bay of Pigs invasion. They were not ready to fire, the pads were being built. We nearly went to nuclear war over this. In the end, both sides' missiles were removed from Turkey and Cuba.

For Russia, Ukraine in NATO, with MRBMs a 4 minute flight to Moscow, and tanks a 2 day drive to the Caspian, is a red line just as dire as missiles in Cuba.

This is not a revelation. Russia has been warning the world, and we have been ignoring them.

Turns out, the Russians were serious. Just as JFK was.


8 posted on 03/02/2022 4:24:23 AM PST by Travis McGee (EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber
The Russia-Ukraine war will likely end in one of three ways:

Or, Ukrainians kill Russians with western weapons till they leave. Sounds good.

9 posted on 03/02/2022 4:25:15 AM PST by tlozo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

World War One begat World War Two
The Cold War seems to have begat war in Ukraine
Let us pray it does not evolve into World War Three.


10 posted on 03/02/2022 4:26:54 AM PST by Tupelo (“Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f*ck things up” (Barack Obama))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Travis McGee

Slow motion Versailles, perfectly started.


11 posted on 03/02/2022 4:28:53 AM PST by DesertRhino (Dogs are called man's best friend. Moslems hate dogs. Add it up..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Travis McGee
its because Ukraine was a key German invasion route.

So Putin is justified in a future invasion of Poland, that was also a "key German invasion route". For the hundredth time, there is NO NATO army in Europe that is a credible invasion force of Russia.

12 posted on 03/02/2022 4:31:02 AM PST by tlozo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Justa

I suggest you read the entire article thoroughly—quite fascinating.

In reality, there was no longer a need for NATO after the USSR fell, and the organization should have disbanded or significantly wound down most of its operations.

The alliance lost it’s purpose and use. Here we are today.

from the wikipedia NATO page itself:
In the 1990s, the organization extended its activities into political and humanitarian situations that had not formerly been NATO concerns


13 posted on 03/02/2022 4:33:58 AM PST by Jaysin (Trump can’t be beat, unless the democrats cheat)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

Predicted the Ukraine war THIRTY years ago?

As traders say about buying stocks...

Being early is the same thing as being wrong.


14 posted on 03/02/2022 4:39:07 AM PST by zeestephen
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MtnClimber

Thanks for the reminder.
The internet is forever.


15 posted on 03/02/2022 4:42:57 AM PST by ptsal (Vote R.E.D. >>>Remove Every Democrat ***)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Travis McGee

You equate Ukrainians’ desire for self-determination and defending their country against a foreign invader -to Nazism!

NATO does not invade to expand. Russia does.


16 posted on 03/02/2022 4:43:10 AM PST by Justa (If where you came from is so great then why aren't Floridians moving there?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Jaysin

“...there was no longer a need for NATO after the USSR fell”

Are you FKN KIDDING ME?

Georgia: Invaded and annexed by Russia 2008.
Crimea: Invaded and annexed by Russia in 2014.
Belarus: Invaded and annexed by Russia in 2020.
Ukraine: Invaded by Russia in 2022.

This is why former Soviet republics want to join NATO.

They are not asking to join Russia. They are being invaded.

Ukraine proves why they need to be in NATO.


17 posted on 03/02/2022 4:52:45 AM PST by Justa (If where you came from is so great then why aren't Floridians moving there?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: tlozo; bitt

In the sense of usage by Bill Clinton, “is” is not the question that is relevant.

Whatever the propaganda media push-out becomes the truth for 24 hours until it is debunked by a fact checker.


18 posted on 03/02/2022 4:54:11 AM PST by ptsal (Vote R.E.D. >>>Remove Every Democrat ***)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Justa

You are very naive and silly if you think Russia could look at Ukraine in NATO as anything less than an existential threat, because you believe that NATO represents only rainbows and unicorns.

You are very silly.


19 posted on 03/02/2022 5:03:04 AM PST by Travis McGee (EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Justa
Please compare NATO expansion to Russian expansion from 1991 until today.

But you don't think Russia should feel threatened, because you think NATO only represents lollipops and rainbows.


20 posted on 03/02/2022 5:05:08 AM PST by Travis McGee (EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-47 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson