Posted on 02/04/2022 9:39:04 AM PST by dangus
Each month, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) asks, "how many people are out of work?" That number GREW by 184,000 last month. It's entirely possible to have a surge in unemployment AND a surge in employment at the same time, because sometimes there is a collapse in the number of people who are "out of the workforce." But that didn't happen.
Instead, the government readjusted its estimated size of the workforce up by over 1 million. Since the number of uemployed grew by a much smaller number, the government says, "Whelp, I guess they all got jobs." They didn't. Not in the past month, anyway.
Here's why this is so fundamentally deceitful: the estimate of the workforce wasn't off by a million because somehow a million Americans went back to work last year, and the government just hadn't realized it. It's probably off mostly because one million illegals stole American jobs, and those stolen jobs went unreported by corrupt businesses.
Here's the data. I just added workforce plus out of the workforce. This method is demonstrated to be valie because despite the jumpy monthly economic data, these two datasets yield a very steady trendline, except each January. What happens in January? The government uses Census data to readjust national population totals. You'll notice that in the last three years of the Trump administration the government had to reduce its estimate of the workforce. Again, probably mostly because the population of illegal aliens decreased. You'll also notice that each year during the Great Recession, the workforce estimates were reduced,... because yes, a lack of jobs and underwater housing sent illegal aliens back home. And yes, this is reflected in estimates of the illegal alien population. But as soon as the GDP started growing again, and the illegal aliens started to take the newly created jobs, we see that each year (2012-2016), the government starts having to correct their data higher again.
What this means is that the Civilian Workforce Level falsely shows an increase by 1,393,000 people. But only 62,000 people actually entered the workforce by leaving the "not in workforce camp." Unemployment grew by 184,000. And recent months have shown the workforce grew by about 130,000 (except the uncounted illegal aliens). So yeah, this months employment figures are off by about one million (1,017,000) people. Take away those million non-existent jobs, and you get a number (-545,000) much closer to the ADP report, which showed jobs jobs shrinking (job growth of -300,000) instead of surging by 467,000.
The Country wants an unrecognized illegal workforce because businesses want cheap labor. They don’t care how they get it, cheap labor from illegals or cheap labor from global manufacturing but they want cheap labor.
If they can steal a presidential election, then falsifying jobs stats is nothing.
The labor force number is influenced by the Discouraged Worker Hypothesis and the Additional Worker Hypothesis. The Discouraged Worker Hypothesis says that workers perceive their employment prospects so badly they just give up and quit looking for a job. Because they are no longer actively looking for work, the gov’t ignores them. This means the gov’t measure underestimated unemployment problems. The Additional Worker Hypothesis says that there are new entrants into the labor force either because the odds of finding a job are high, or because a major breadwinner in the family lost their job and “secondary” workers start looking for a job.
It’s hard to say which dominates right now.
This is all going to come to a head one of these days. Problem is we will pay not the guilty.
The Feddies can get away with this kind of crap when they own all of the toads in the “media”.
All stats are a mess due to COVID and won’t straighten out for a while.
Best to just take care oneself and keep moving forward. Come to think of it, that’s always the best thing to do.
Stats don’t hold me down. I can only hold myself down.
What you write is true, but HAS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO with what I posted. BLS provides data on discouraged workers, which are about equal to the number of counted unemployed workers. In fact, there is data for all the components of “Not In Labor Force,” but much of it is based on estimates.
The problem with the Discouraged Worker count is that in reality, being a discouraged worker is not a binary state; it’s not true that you either want a job or you don’t. What Trump taught the Federal Reserve was that there are millions upon millions of people who may be willing to rejoin the labor pool if they can find good jobs with good pay.
The failure to recognize this has led to the Federal Reserve horribly mismanaging the economy by slamming working-class homeowners scrotums in a vice as their way to cool down the economy, repeatedly resulting in economic recessions in the misguided notion growth had to be slowed while there were still tens of millions of people who lacked jobs.
I don’t have a clue what the hell the federal reserve is doing. Yes, it seems like they sure as hell better tame inflation, but why raising overnight rates while they are still injecting trillions into the investor-class pockets by using electronic money to keep bond rates artificially low? Instead of scrotum-mangling adjustable-rate mortgage holders and reducing future money supply by trillions, let higher bond rates attract money out of the mortgage market and into the bond market. This would cool off business expansion and housing markets WITHOUT creating the pressure points that collapsed the economy in 2007-2011
Exactly. Everything has the stench of manipulation.
“I don’t have a clue what the hell the federal reserve is doing.”
The FED has been in box doing triage for 30 years, trapped by govt overspending. They’ve managed to keep our heads above water the entire way. Watch the Bond Market if you want to know what’s going on and where we are headed. The FED has to follow the Bond Market when it moves, the Bond Market is much larger than the FED.
Everything would get a lot better faster IF increases in energy production were encouraged. But we are hamstrung for now and that’s the way it is. Have to adjust as necessary to that reality. Inflation should peak late this year and within 3 years the FED will be worrying about disinflation again.
That's the 21st century in a nutshell, as far as I can see.
Don’t matter they brilliantly setup everybody up! What was it Monday Tuesday Wednesday they kept telegraphing that the numbers were not gonna be that good and then wham excellent unexpected numbers pop on the scene. These people are cunning they’re evil they’ve got the media everything at their disposal to blind the American people. Don’t be surprised if the 2022 elections turned out to be the same Wham Bam ...The Democrats retain both houses. It don’t matter anymore America is diminishing in the world stage because of this tyrannical fake president who has taken us beyond the gates of hell of no return! It would have to take a miracle from God for this nation to survive three more years of this sick evil dementia Brandon and his DEMONIC administration.
There are two absolute truths about America today: EVERYTHING is fake and nothing works.
And Brandon was out touting the new numbers this morning, of course. We all knew something was fishy because they expected -300,000 jobs.
Polishing a turd won’t work forever.
The Federal Reserve has nothing to do with labor force data. I agree that interest rates affect private borrowing, but has little impact on gov’t borrowing. The gov’t has consistently shown it could care less about interest rates or the burden of the debt. Please explain how rising interest rates injects money into high-income pockets. High income people are rarely satisfied with the yields provided by gov’t bonds.
The blunt instrument tools of the Fed are the reserve requirements on demand and time deposits. Indeed, these are so strong, they are rarely used. The most commonly-used Fed tools is adjustments to the Federal Funds rate. While it does have an impact, it’s like pushing on a string and expecting the other end to move significantly.
>> The Federal Reserve has nothing to do with labor force data. <<
Not sure what you’re referring to. I got data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics via the Federal Reserve’s excellent web resources. But as a matter of fact, the Federal Reserve has long manipulated the economy in the belief that they can maximize profits by maintaining an unemployment rate above 5%.
>> The gov’t has consistently shown it could care less about interest rates or the burden of the debt. Please explain how rising interest rates injects money into high-income pockets. High income people are rarely satisfied with the yields provided by gov’t bonds. <<
You completely misread me. They are buying up treasury bonds to keep the interest rates LOW, precisely so they can continue their spending spree.
>> The blunt instrument tools of the Fed are the reserve requirements on demand and time deposits. <<
Since late 2008, the federal reserve has been buying up treasury bonds to the tune of $9 TRILLION dollars. This is what was referred to as quantitative easing.
Just to be clearer:
The interest rates the federal reserve raises are the overnight lending rates made to “banks” (I put that in quotes, because nowadays, it’s way more complicated than that.) This is intended to cool off the housing and small business. Ultimately, when the banks do this, the goal is to tame inflation to keep bond rates low.
The overnight rate, or Federal Funds rate, is the short term loans the Fed makes to member banks, usually to meet Federal reserve requirements on time and demand deposits. The Fed doesn’t track what the money is used for, but member banks literally hate to “go to the window” and it is bank borrowing of the last resort. Indeed, if member banks come up short at the end of the day, they prefer to contact large bank depositors and borrow their demand deposit balance overnight. Eli Lilli, for example, did this in Indianapolis all the time. Banks would gladly pay a higher rate to customers rather than use Federal funds as the Fed often view going to the window as a sign of bad management.
Again, true, but totally irrelevant. The Fed’s overnight lending rate sets the price floor. So raising the overnight rate sets the price of borrowing money, even if the banks are reluctant to go the fed. Look, I’m glad you were paying attention in high school, but just stop, OK?
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