Why Carnival and All the Other Cruise-Line Stocks Just Crashed

The Motley Fool ^ | 1/27/2022 | Rich Smith

[Capt. Tom]

Since the beginning of our fiscal year, [and Carnival's presumably speaking of fiscal 2022 here, so pay attention if you want to know how this current year is going], we have experienced an impact on bookings for our near-term sailings, including higher cancellations resulting from an increase in pre-travel positive test results and challenges in the availability of timely pre-travel tests. In addition, in the last few weeks we have seen a dampening of the booking activity for the second half of 2022 relative to 2019.

In other words, customers are canceling trips in the first half of the year, and also "dampening" reservations for the second half.

First and second half? That sounds like Carnival is predicting a weak year all through 2022, which is obviously not what investors were hoping to hear today. While management tried to put a brave face on things, reassuring investors that "we expect to be able to successfully operate over 96% of our previously disclosed available lower berth days ... in the first quarter of 2022," being "able" to sell those reservations doesn't necessarily mean Carnival will be able to find customers to buy them.

As of this writing, neither Royal Caribbean nor Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings have published warnings similar to the one Carnival Corporation just put out. That being said, it stands to reason that if vacationers are leery of cruising with Carnival, "put in place comprehensive health and safety protocols for protection against and mitigation of COVID-19 then they're probably going to be nervous about cruising with Norwegian and Royal Caribbean, as well.

If that's the case, then analyst predictions that Carnival will return to profitability in Q3 2022 and Royal Caribbean and Norwegian will turn profitable again in Q2 just got thrown into question. No wonder investors are upset.

[Capt. Tom]

You knew the big three cruise lines were putting on the best face for a return to crusing after having done in a lot of Unvaccinated cruisers and talking about pent up demand.

This article comes as no surprise to me. - Tom

[Flash Bazbeaux]

Cruise lines were floating Petri dishes even before Covid.

[DannyTN]

Bubble cruises!!!

Everyone gets a bubble suit.

And if you roll overboard, you won’t drown.

[ClearCase_guy]

I made a first payment for a Caribbean vacation in 2019 for a vacation in 2020. Couldn’t go in 2020. Also couldn’t go in 2021. Hoping to go in 2022.

I won’t push it to 2023. If I can’t go this year, I’ll swallow a $300 loss and just decide no more traveling. For me, it’s not a cruise. But the concept is the same — who wants to ride this merry-go-round?

[windsorknot]

Once the Love Boat is now the Bug Boat.

[FreedomPoster]

One of the prime reasons I was never a fan of ocean cruises.

[JonPreston]

I suggest they cut back on the Venetian hour and dump the Don Ho act.

[Captain Peter Blood]

2025 is looking pretty good

[TexasGator]

” Just Crashed “

Dude is two years late.

[teeman8r]

thanks capt. obvious.

hehehe

disney is keeping its value up but i believe it is feeling the same pressures.

[V_TWIN]

Just out of curiosity how many cruises have you taken?

[hoe_cake]

Geez, how i miss cruising. Was hoping on a 3- or 6-month cruise before the plandemic.

[rktman]

Butt, butt, butt only vaxxed passengers and crew.

🚢🔬😨😷💉🐂💨💩💸

[packrat35]

I was considering a cruise in 2022 but getting the jab is a big no to cruises for me.

[hoe_cake]

I would consider a smaller cruise, a River cruise, now. Of course, I don’t have to consider the expense because my partner would be paying.

[hoe_cake]

Cruises are just not everyone’s cup of tea. I have come to love them now that I know what to expect. I avoid the free food during normal dinner hours, I stay away from mass public, take the stairs when I can, and eat at 8pm. And, I don’t do exersions very often. I’m not one on being cattled around.

[Guenevere]

We have a cruise port in our county......
...so this will affect more than just the cruise line

fwiw, every cruise I have taken has been lovely.......the rooms and ship very clean....the food well prepared
....and I have never been sick

[American Infidel]

I don't think people are necessarily leery or afraid of catching the wuflu as much as they are afraid of paying for a cruise with all of the amenities, and then suddenly being placed on lockdown inside their cabins for a week in name of "safety" as they are fed like prisoners getting a plate of cold rice slid under their door once a day.

No Thanks. Plenty of other vacation options.

[Brian Griffin]

The Honduras Migrant Express will be making weekly sailings soon.

[fastrock]

Wife n I have done mostly Carnival 15-20 total, 1 Norwegian n 2 Celebrity cruises. We won’t do one requiring a vax. That’s not the CL’s fault, they have to follow CDC guidelines. Maybe someday, we loved cruising.