Two More Contributions On The Impossibility Of Electrifying Everything Using Only Wind, Solar And Batteries

Manhattan Contrarian ^ | 17 Jan, 2022 | Francis Menton

[MtnClimber]

My post on Friday highlighted the work of Ken Gregory, who has attempted to quantify the costs of fully electrifying the U.S. energy system using as sources only wind, solar, and batteries. My post got circulated among my excellent colleagues in the CO2 Coalition, two of whom then provided me with links to their own work on closely-related subjects.

The two pieces are: (1) “How Many km2 of Solar Panels in Spain and how much battery backup would it take to power Germany,” by Lars Schernikau and William Smith, posted January 30, 2021 (revised April 23, 2021) at SSRN; and (2) “On the Ability of Wind and Solar Electric Generation to Power Modern Civilization,” by Wallace Manheimer, published October 7, 2021 in the Journal of Energy Research and Reviews.

Both pieces consider various cost and engineering issues involved in trying to develop a fully solar/battery or wind/solar/battery system to power a modern economy; and both quickly conclude for many reasons that such a project is completely infeasible and will surely fail. And yet the U.S. and Europe are both marching forward to implement such plans, without any detailed feasibility studies or cost estimates, let alone even a small scale demonstration project to show that this can work.

Schernikau and Smith consider a case of trying to power just Germany using solar power generated in Spain (Spain having the best conditions in Europe for generating power from the sun). The conclusion:

It appears that solar’s low energy density, high raw material input and low energy-Return-On-energy-Invested (eROeI) as well as large storage requirements make today’s solar technology an environmentally and economically unviable choice to replace conventional power at large scale.

S&S mainly focus on the incredible material requirements that would need to be met for this solar/battery project. First, as to the solar panels:

To match Germany’s electricity demand (or over 15% of EU’s electricity demand) solely from solar photovoltaic panels located in Spain, about 7% of Spain would have to be covered with solar panels (~35.000 km2). . . . To keep the Solar Park functioning just for Germany, PV panels would need to be replaced every 15 years, translating to an annual silicon requirement for the panels reaching close to 10% of current global production capacity (~135% for one-time setup). The silver requirement for modern PV panels powering Germany would translate to 30% of the annual global silver production (~450% for one-time setup). For the EU, essentially the entire annual global silicon production and 3x the annual global silver production would be required for replacement only.

And then there is the question of the battery storage requirement. S&S do not do an hour-by-hour spreadsheet like Gregory to come up with the storage requirement, but rather assume a need for 14 days’ worth of storage based on the possibility of 14 consecutive cloudy days in Spain. (The hour-by-hour analysis done by Gregory and by Roger Andrews would suggest that due to seasonality of solar generation, 30 days of storage would be more realistic.). But even with the 14 day assumption, S&S get these startling results:

To produce sufficient storage capacity from batteries using today’s leading technology would require the full output of 900 Tesla Gigafactories working at full capacity for one year, not counting the replacement of batteries every 20 years. . . . A 14-day battery storage solution for Germany would exceed the 2020 global battery production by a factor of 4 to 5x. To produce the required batteries for Germany alone (or over 15% of EU’s electricity demand) would require mining, transportation and processing of 0,4-0,8 billion tons of raw materials every year (7 to 13 billion tons for one-time setup), and 6x more for Europe. . . . The 2020 global production of lithium, graphite anodes, cobalt or nickel would not nearly suffice by a multiple factor to produce the batteries for Germany alone.

Manheimer’s piece is more general in its discussion of the problems of intermittency and storage, but then focuses particularly on the problem of disposing of the vast wind and solar facilities at the ends of their useful lives:

Let us first consider solar panels. These panels last about 25 years, so the 250,000 tons we have to recycle this year is just a trickle compared to the deluge coming at us in 2050, when we will have had a total of 78 million tons to dispose of. These are not appropriate for landfills, as they contain hazardous and poison materials such as lead and cadmium, which can leech into the soil. However, recycling is expensive. The cost of the recycled materials is considerably more than the cost of the raw materials.

For wind turbines, the blades and the towers pose separate problems:

Since the blades are fiber glass and last only about 10 years, we have had considerable experience here. These blades are gigantic, and are very costly to ship and dispose of. . . . The difficulty of disposing of the blades pales in comparison with disposing of the towers, which last ~25 years. . . . [T]he Washington Times estimates that a [realistic] cost estimate is $500,000 [per turbine].

Go ahead and look through the plans being put forth today by the likes of California, New York, Germany or the UK, and see how they address any of these issues. The answer is, they don’t.

[MtnClimber]

I personally don’t object to investigating alternative sources of power. I just don’t think we should get rid of reliable power before we have a replacement that is cost effective and as reliable as what we have now.

[Adder]

Wind and solar fail without government subsidy...just like electric cars will. Look who is subsidizing charging stations.

[Thommas]

The charging stations for the wave of electric vehicles is in excess of $220K apiece. Some, in isolated locations, are
powered by diesel generators.

[Sgt_Schultze]

It’s been 120 years since Nikola Tesla patented his method for distributing unlimited free electricity from the ionosphere. After his death, the US government confiscated all of Tesla’s research and papers. A maturing industry existed in the 1940s run by very large powerful companies at that time whose businesses would be impacted. That industry is only bigger now and the government’s role as “boss of all subjects” would be hampered an upending too.

[BobL]

“To match Germany’s electricity demand (or over 15% of EU’s electricity demand) solely from solar photovoltaic panels located in Spain, about 7% of Spain would have to be covered with solar panels (~35.000 km2)”

I agree with the 35 km^2, but if it’s 7% of Spain’s total area, then Spain would be 490 km^2, or a bit smaller than Guam. Somehow I doubt that’s the case.

[Jumper]

These schemes are globalists wet dreams; getting countries to tax their people to product a solar product that’s application is better utilized in space than on earth.

[BobL]

By the way, I do agree with gist of the article, which is that their pipe dream of solar/wind/batteries is insane, and will have far worse impacts on the environment than fossil fuel generation.

At the same time, since I understand the motives of the Left, I’m able to understand why these future issues are not discussed and why this article will be ignored by everyone in power.

[Gen.Blather]

In college I had a genuine NASA scientist teaching Thermo. He had us work through every possible alternative energy scenario. With generous assumptions none of them could even begin to replace the means we have now. The best possible alternative was nuclear power. Mention that to a liberal and their heads explode. (Metaphorically. Otherwise, all this green energy stuff would be long behind us. Also, there would be no Global Warming. I conclude that to end Global Warming all we have to do is end liberals.)

[Gnome1949]

Electric vehicles produced in the millions would exceed the ability of any country to produce the electricity to charge them all.

There is a diabolical plan to have Americans give up their gasoline and diesel vehicles with the false lure of electric vehicle use. Soon after, the government will announce the impossible ability to charge millions of vehicles and OUTLAW THEIR MANUFACTURE.

The plan will result in the average person having NO PERSONAL VEHICLE.

No personal vehicle equals no personal freedom.

This is the true goal because the people in charge already know electric vehicles cannot be an alternative when produced in large quantities.

Even the raw materials to manufacture a huge number of batteries for these EV’s are rare and will create a massive pollution threat in their mining.

Further, battery fires have been found to be impossible to extinguish by fire departments. This is why people are being told NOT to park EV’s in a garage lest the runaway fires burn down their dwellings.

There are already seasonal “brownouts” where people are told not to add to the drain on the grid by charging their electric vehicles.

[SES1066]

Way, way back in the Carter years (1977), Dr Petr Beckman published a perceptive book with the title “The Health Hazards of Not Going Nuclear”. Now this preceded Three Mile Island, the movie “China Syndrome”, Chernobyl and the Climate Change push. The author, a PhD mathematician, focused upon the ‘big picture’ statistics of/for health hazards of power production from all contemporary sources of the mid 70s.

While my copy was loaned and never returned AND the book is out of print, I still remember that the conclusion was that the fission power plant, with all of its well publicized baggage, remained a public health improvement. Obviously, at that time, the biggest energy producer was COAL and that was an emphatic worse killer from production to pollution.

NOW and unbelievably, we see Germany shutting down all of its nuclear plants, and working hard to reduce coal to insignificance, to go to a glorious future of Nord 2 and renewables! What madness but they are making a fine bed to lie in!

[Fresh Wind]

Tesla promised this in 2021. I guess this promise was just another liberal lie.

Tesla says it will power all Superchargers with renewable energy this year

"Additionally, all our Supercharger energy will be 100% renewable in 2021."

[ProtectOurFreedom]

The low energy density of wind and solar means you need huge amounts of materials up front and disposal at the end of their short economic lives. You could increase the efficiency of wind and solar by 50% and you still have the same problem. Wind and solar will never be able to power advanced civilization. It’s a simple fact. The sooner we stop chasing that chimera, the better. We are wasting u told amounts of wealth on this nonsense.

The only energy sources that will do the job are fossil and nuclear.

These comprehensive global systems analyses are not that hard to do, yet every government pushing “decarbonization” will not do the studies because they are held captive by the communist greens.

[Nifster]

Time to go nuclear

[BobL]

“Tesla says it will power all Superchargers with renewable energy this year.
Tesla promised this in 2021.
I guess this promise was just another liberal lie.”

At a minimum, it’s deceptive as it implies that somewhere nearby their charging stations is a giant solar/wind/battery farm supplying that station.

Not even close. At best they’re competing against other greenies for the same supply of ‘renewable’ energy’ (likely very highly subsidized, by the way), and driving up the cost for everyone, and they’re also forcing the grid, in other places, to add backup coal/gas generation.

I guess Tesla figures that as long as people are stupid enough to believe their lies and deceptions, then why not lie and deceive? Reminds me of when I did a calculation on one of their ‘Supercharging’ stations, that was covered with solar panels. Even though the station had something like 20 charging bays, the panels (roughly 100 of them) could only supply ONE of those bays, and then only during the day, only when the sun was reasonably high up in sky, and only when the weather was clear. They needed a substation for the rest. But man, it must have felt good to the Tesla owners, knowing that their 6,000 lb. behemoth was ‘saving the planet’ when charging there.

In a way, it’s like all of the companies taking the knee for Black Lives Matter and promising to up their percentages of blacks, at high levels, in their work forces. All sounds wonderful until one considers that there is on a LIMITED supply of even marginally-qualified blacks and so when there are 3 open slots for every qualified black in the country, things can’t end well.

[packagingguy]

After researching it a lot it seems as though solar makes a good supplemental power source and to save space can be installed on top of buildings. But it cannot replace conventional power.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

This comment at the Manhattan Contrarian site is hilarious and says it all…

We can't let a few facts get in the way of saving the planet from melting. I feel very confident that if the UN puts together a racially/gender diverse blue ribbon committee of environmental experts and climate justice advocates, and gives them an unlimited budget for study and research, and a fleet of private jets and Tesla Model S Plaids to shuttle them around the world for global climate conferences they can solve these minor problems and lead us all to a socially just 100% carbon-free electric future. After all, there are a few billion Greta's out there whose futures need to be saved.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

You mean like this?

Tesla charger blamed for fire that displaced Menlo Park [CA] family, January 5, 2022.

The fire, which occurred at 1275 Hermosa Way in Central Menlo Park appears to have been accidental in nature and related to a Tesla vehicle charger in the garage, according to Johnston. The fire caused extensive damage to the garage and attic, making the home uninhabitable and causing about $750,000 in damage to the home and its contents. The family living there had to move out, but there were no injuries, he said.

[Lockbox]

Well then dude, Germany better stop screwing with Tesla and get that plant up and running. Lord Elon will save Germany!

[TonyM]

I think it is more feasible to expect that I could power the entire country with my farts.