Posted on 01/08/2022 12:48:38 PM PST by ImJustAnotherOkie
Whatever the technological promise or pitfalls of electric vehicles, the real challenge lies in getting consumers eager to buy them. And that’s proven to be at least as difficult as making batteries last and building out a comprehensive charging infrastructure. A new report from the big-time, grownup pants Deloitte consulting firm indicates just how big an undertaking that is proving to be.
Deloitte’s touchingly named “2022 Global Automotive Consumer Study” goes into granular detail about the buyer expectations that will drive the automotive market in the coming years. It’s all based on a survey of 26,000 consumers in 25 countries. R&T has been reliably informed one of those countries is the United States, which is still located in North America. The whole report is available at this link as a PDF.
Much of what Deloitte reports is unsurprising. People still vastly prefer personal vehicles over public transportation; are willing to embrace high technology as long as they don’t have to pay for it; that they still want to buy new vehicles in person and not over the internet; and that they’re fine with electric vehicles as long as they’re affordable and at least as good as those relying on internal combustion.
The big insights come with the subject of intentionality. That is what consumers expect to buy next. In the U.S. fully 69 percent of consumers expect their next vehicle to be powered by internal combustion. Another 22 percent will go for some sort of hybrid. But still, amid all this, only about five percent of Americans expect their next vehicle will be a fully-electric, battery-fueled machine.
“Buyers expect their vehicles to be affordable,” explains Ryan Robinson, Deloitte’s Automotive Research Leader. “Fully 74 percent of those intending to buy an electric expect their next vehicle to cost less than $50,000. With the average price of a new vehicle already approaching $40,000 that’s a very narrow band for electrics.”
Right now, many of the electrics on the market are what Robinson describes as “halo” products. That’s to say premium vehicles that attract attention and sell at high prices, but aren’t intended to sell in huge volumes to average buyers. Will there be affordable and attractive electrics? Good question.
Governments are driving forward with aggressive plans for converting the vehicle fleet to alternative fuels. What prominently emerges from the Deloitte report is that ambitions are one thing, and reality is something else.
Other countries are more eager for EVs. In South Korea, for example, 23 percent of buyers anticipate next buying an electric. In China it’s 17 percent. In almost all countries, hybrids and plug-in hybrids seem to be gaining traction as alternatives to pure ICEs.
There are plenty of other indications in Deloitte’s report that what lies in front of us is a tumultuous vehicular future. “There are a lot of big, all-in bets being made,” Robinson asserts. “We’re right in the middle of a very messy time.”
My lease on my 2019 Toyota Tacoma Sport 4wd 6 speed manual is up in September. It only has 14,000 miles on it. The buyout option is $26,000. I will be buying it. The 3.5 6cyl/ manual transmission combo will last many years.
“some companies like GM are essentially going ‘all in’ on EVs”
Money talks and Elon Musk’s ~$304 billion personal net worth screams out.
But if 95% or more of the driving is for local use, perhaps we need to take into account that an EV has no 15-minute gas stops for local use.
So I'm supposed to have one car for local trips and a second for long-distance trips? How fuel efficient is that?
I'm sure there are people who could get by with a local-only car, just like there are people who manage with ride-sharing. But there are a lot of people who cannot.
Norway 🇳🇴 🛩
United States ✈
EV owners own fossil fuel cars also. When you use power that is intermittent you better have a backup.
I don't know about Tesla. But in the Nissan Leaf and some other makes, the 12v regular battery is periodically recharged by the EV batteries, even when the car is sitting around unused. Seems that should be regular procedure for any EV.
Yep.....and imagine if there was an attack on the electric power grid. You won’t be driving anywhere!
If the batteries only last 5 or 6 years, and cost over $20,000 (at today’s prices) to replace ........ I foresee much long term sticker shock.
... plus an “EV” in China or South Korea will be more akin to a golf cart than a car fit for US roads.
That's amusing talk about GM going all in on EVs. Elon Musk has been tweeting this week against GM, because GM sold a total of 26 EVs in Q4 of 2022 vs Tesla selling hundreds of thousands. Musk says to GM "room for improvement". GM sold 26 EVs, of which only one is a Hummer truck. So much for the hype from GM and Biden about being EV leaders.
“ Will I be able to buy a used EV for a few grand?”
Once the battery is dead.
“Will I be able to buy a used EV for a few grand?”
Well, yes. You can already buy a used EV for practically nothing. They look good, too. But the battery, depending on make and model, can run anywhere from $12,000-22,000 dollars. There’s a company in California that takes the battery assemblies apart, tests individual cells and then sell a “reconditioned” battery. But each of the cells is from an already used battery assembly, so, they’re already old. I understand that’s relatively cheap. The key term being relatively.
You get a five- or six-year-old gas car, and you can always fix whatever may be mechanically wrong, usually for not too much, and then you fill it with gas. The used EV can be gorgeous, but the battery is worth more than the car will be worth when you put the new battery in it.
> Forcing technology on us that is not ready for prime time.... <
Right you are. If the Left has its way, it won’t be “Do you want an electric car?” Instead it will be “You will take an electric car.”
They’ll take away our gas. Try to force us to their unicorn machines.
Well it does help that they get to charge their cars for free in Oslo.
Norway get almost all their electric power from hydroelectric power stations, yet produce more oil and gas in Western Europe than everyone else, most of which they export, and put the money in their sovereign fund which has grown to over $1 Trillion.
Lol...
“Gas powered used pickups are never going to depreciate. if you can get one do it”
My buddy totaled his 2005 Tundra a little over a year ago. It was in pretty good shape body and interior wise but 1/4 million miles on it. While he waited for his insurance company to chime in we looked up Bluebook. It was around $5,000 if not a bit less. Well in So. Cal the Insurance payoff was nearly 12K. Market based they said. No complaints from him.
You can’t go from the invention of the radio to the internet.
There’s a lot of things that have to happen in between.
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