Posted on 12/21/2021 10:25:01 AM PST by SeekAndFind
With the mainstream media scrambling to keep the fear factor over the Omicron factor pegged to the Max, with much of Europe in the process of locking down amid the 5th covid wave despite cases now clearly declining across most countries...
... while in the US the Biden administration - too scared for now to impose a new round of draconian lockdowns - set to deploy 1,000 military troops to back up hospitals if they face a wave of omicron patients in January and February, Deutsche Bank's Shreyas Gopal finds some actually good news.
Noting that Omicron has spread like wildfire in London, which in turn has made the UK the country with the most cases per million people (as shown in the chart above), the DB strategist asks how does this compare to what was seen in the South African province of Gauteng? His answer: "plotted on a log scale, and lagging cases by fourteen days gives some hope that the UK's capital city is on a similar path. The overall impact on hospital capacity in the UK remains to be seen, but nevertheless the relationship suggests a peak in cases soon."
Just to be safe, Gopal also hedges by noting that if "this doesn't materialize then the tentative optimism being drawn from the data from SA may prove short-lived."
Of course, if one ignores the constant drumbeat of panic carried by media headlines around the globe, there is even more reason to be optimistic because no matter how scary the narrative, Omicron - while extremely contagious - remains an "extremely mild" case of covid with virtually no deaths reported as a result.
This brings us to a separate not from DB's credit strategist Francis Yared who notes that the two key questions on Omicron remain
While recent data from South Africa shows a small uptick in ICU patients and deaths over the last three days, both metrics remain low compared to previous waves, especially relative to case numbers. Critical cases in London - which as noted above is at the forefront of the Omicron wave in the Northern Hemisphere with record infection numbers - also have had an uptick, but remain extremely low. And while it's still early days, this data remains crucial in the upcoming period and absent a surge in deaths, should lead to broad relief rally in coming weeks.
Still, before giving the all clear, Yared cautions that there are warnings that the South African experience with Omicron may not be directly comparable to other countries (if only because developed countries have a far more elderly people than South Africa). As a result, DB is also tracking the evolution in London as a leading indicator for the Northern hemisphere. Here there is more good news as the number of ICU patients on mechanical ventilators (MV) remains low.
This is the bank's preferred metric as it is not distorted by patients being admitted to hospitals/dying with rather than because of covid. That said, given the historical lag between cases and MV, it's still too early to draw definite conclusions on this.
In short, absent a dramatic (and unlikely) surge in morality late into the Omicron spread, the variant indeed remains "extremely mild" compared to previous waves, and more importantly, despite its far faster spread, it is now peaking across most geographic regions. Perhaps Kolanovic will be right this time with his recent prediction (which echoed what we said one month ago), in that Omicron will actually turn out to be positive for risk and result in an "end of the covid Pandemic."
No no no- they had one “possible death” from omicron, time to lock down tight- /s
Oh yeah, and the fraud fauci is predicting a “devastating winter” due to omicron, and everyone knows that he hasn’t been wrong on one single, thing concerning covid yet -again /s
I gotta question.
Why are these people even going to the doctor?
If I got a mild illness like a cold or flu, I would stay home, stay warm, sleep, eat hot soup, and take decongestants and ibuprofen as necessary. It takes a heck of of an illness to make me go to the doctor or hospital.
Mild symptoms? Short duration?!? This is awful!! /s
RE: Why are these people even going to the doctor?
FEAR FACTOR.
Ordinarily, if we did not have Covid, people would simply brush it off as a mild illness.
But we are not living in ordinary times, people want to make sure it’s not the novel Coronavirus that is several orders of a magnitude more transmissible and deadly.
Omicron will be the end of the pandemic and of Boris (the c).
Yep, heaven forbid anyone get the sniffles, gets tired and has aches for 2 days -
What are they gonna do in the future when colds and f.ues take over again znd 10’s of 1000’s die from those like they do every year? Are we gonna go into constant lickdoens every flu znd cold,season now? Because the left are hysterically hyping a mild case of th3 sniffles as the end of the world and a “winter of death”
Thanks, watching with interest.
It makes sense for at risk people to be tested for a COVID. They can get an infusion of antibodies that appears to help tremendously.
Re antibodies: The ones that work for Delta and earlier strains, don’t work for Omicron, according to a nearby FR article.
But, even if you have Delta, you have to get the antibodies within a few days of initial symptoms. So, if you’re at risk, and don’t know whether you have delta, which gets bad over a course of 2 to 3 weeks, or Omicron, which appears to be more like a cold, it’s understandable that you’d be jumpy if you’re in the high risk group. Given all the existing publicity, of course.
Tell it to our hysterical media.😡
Fear factor.
And likely because someone else is paying for it.
Nothing like having skin in the game to help you make smarter choices.
An update on a study of “Omicron” (more bronchitis less viral pneumonia)/less severe:
https://youtu.be/84XMFVcLScw?t=246
Using a log scale makes the graphs useless.
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