Posted on 11/23/2021 10:05:07 AM PST by hamburger hill
Tight Inventory, “Increasing Affordability Challenges,” and Rising Mortgage Rates – The phenomenon of a spurt in buying during the early phases of rising mortgage rates – until they reach a magic number. Actual sales of all types of existing homes fell 8.2% year-over-year to 526,000 homes in October, with sales of single-family houses falling 8.2% year-over-year to 469,000 houses in the month, and sales of condos and co-ops falling 8.1% year-over-year to 57,000 units, according to data from the National Association of Realtors today.
(Excerpt) Read more at wolfstreet.com ...
Not in our neighborhood. The prices are skyrocketing.
As interest rates rise in the Biden trainwreck and the costs of materials/labor continue to increase the housing market is going to suffer. As the costs of energy, food, and other essentials rise people will have even less money for housing.
It is certain.
Build Back Better indeed....
They are rising now but just wait. We are only beginning to see the tremors of the Biden policies.
The fraud pedojoe popeshart bidet policies will ensure red state realty soars while blue states begin to look like Detroit.
Increasing Affordability Challenges
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A rather polite way of saying the cost of houses went up 20% in one year.
Oh yeh, I agree its sell time right now. I’ve got my Mom’s house going up for sale next week and ours in several months. I fully expect another 2008-2009 in 2022 only worse.
Still a housing shortage in most submarkets.
In a balanced housing market it takes 90 days to sell the average property. “I watch days on the market” among other stats to tell me what’s happening in my target markets for investments.
Some submarkets can be hot while others are cold, even in the same state. National stats give an overview, but that may not apply well to any given submarket.
Good luck with your real estate, almost 2/3 of Americans are invested in it.
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That's just it. Prices are skyrocketing because availability is down resulting in fewer sales. Just like cars. Fewer cars for sale means higher pricers for those cars that are available.
Meanwhile, landlords are trying to unload their rental property en masse due to gov’t interference in their private business (eviction moratoriums, some which are still going on in BLUE states) Rents are skyrocketing!
“They are rising now but just wait. We are only beginning to see the tremors of the Biden policies.”
‘Cooling’ is happening on many submarkets but no crash anytime soon. Housing is in shortage yet still affordable, and unemployment among middle and upper classes is low.
My favorite part is how we gripe when prices go up and go into fear/panic when they go down.
Americans have gotten themselves into a state where nothing can make them happy. I blame the media.
My very rural area has no high paying jobs so our house prices were always very low.
Now with WFH, people from out of town are buying up homes and land left and right.
Don’t blame me. In October I closed on a house in Houston, TX that my oldest daughter lives in; same thing 2 years ago in Tonawanda, NY that my youngest daughter lives in. So I now own 3 houses.
Materials costs have skyrocketed.
Yes, that’s been going on for at least 25 years, and rural land is very popular. I think it will stay that way, Bill Gates can afford good advisors and he’s not the only super-wealthy person who has been buying rural real estate.
I’m in the market for some more myself. I like looking in winter when few other buyers are out there.
Ding, ding, a winner.
“Materials costs have skyrocketed.”
Old news. My builder friends say they’ve come back down rather nicely. They are very busy where I am. I notice they all tend to be framing up right away and then everything comes to a temporary halt while they wait for windows.
As I have gotten older and wiser to the world I expect things to go in cycles..... they go up and they go down but if you don’t like it just wait until the “pendulum” swings back.
However, the left appears hellbent on breaking things. Some of these things will be extremely difficult to recover from and maybe impossible. We are outside of the normal swings from a Carter to a Reagan or an Obama to a Trump.
At some point you can break things bad enough that they do not respond in the usual cycle of years or a decade.
Look at “crime” and law enforcement. There is no easy recovery from the razing they did to that last year because how do you replace what was lost and what will never be because so many will NOT choose that as a career?
The left has become an existential threat to the nation. They are seeking to destroy the old so they can bring in their version of new.
They want to destroy private wealth, our currency, our morals/norms, and our faith. Every bubble pops eventually and we live in a bubble. Look at their tax policies on family farms (inheritance tax). The logical conclusion of such policies is that the family farms are disappearing because the corporate farms or big Ag are the only ones who can afford to buy them up. The same thing is beginning at the bottom of the real estate market..... big corporations who own homes for leasing are snapping them up.
Are we nearing the top of the market before all these other forces drive it down? I don’t know for sure but you and I are thinking in months and years. They are playing a long game and like everything they are certainly chipping away at it!
For ten years we as a nation under built new homes(apartments or single family).
We need on average 1.5 million houses constructed/year to keep up with a population of 350 million. Houses on average only last 75 years.
From 2007-2017 we built significantly less than 1.5 million.
Now, for the last couple years we are at that or more(1.5 to 1.6).
We have years to go at this level to meet demand.
However, all real estate is local. The growth areas of the country are TX, AZ, ID, CO, FL, SC, WA, GA, NH, ME, VT, MN, SD, ND, NC.
People are moving out of Portland, OR and moving to other NW points. People are moving out of LA & SF and moving to everywhere else in the country. People are moving out of NYC, NJ & CT and moving to other east coast locations.
So, while things are screaming in Dallas, Boise & Austin they are not very good in Greenwich, CT and northern NJ.
The scary thing is what is going to happen to all these sky scrapers in Boston, NYC, LA, SF, Seattle if nobody goes back to work in the office next year. There could be a lot of commercial real estate investors in serious trouble along with the bank that hold their mortgages. Same goes for inner city condo buildings.
The Lumber Broker
“big corporations who own homes for leasing are snapping them up”
This is the major issue in many of the hot markets. Between Black Rock, Fundrise, Crowdstreet, and NRIA are all buying up single family and multifamily houses and apartment projects across the country. They know that there is now a certain percentage of the market that will always rent. Rents very rarely go down. They never go down long term. In most instances these corporations will buy a house outright full price all cash offer. It has made it hard to compete in certain markets.
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