Will the Hispanic Right Turn Last?

City Journal.org ^ | October 21, 2021 | Noah Rudnick

[freddy005]

Will the Hispanic Right Turn Last? Noah Rudnick is the director of research at Cygnal, a Republican polling firm, and writes a blog about historical election trends. One of the surprises on Election Night 2020 was how much Donald Trump gained among Latino voters, especially in such regions as Miami-Dade County and the Rio Grande Valley in Texas that had long been Democratic strongholds. Later Pew polling of 2020 voters would show that Hispanic voters nationwide went from voting in 2016 for Hillary Clinton by a margin of 38 percentage points to voting in 2020 for Joe Biden by a margin of only 21 percentage points. This is a potentially seismic shift: as the Hispanic population continues to grow, especially in large swing states, its voting power becomes more and more relevant to winning the Electoral College. Geographic data confirm the trend.... Meantime, counties to the west, along the Mexican border, that aren’t majority Hispanic did not move toward the Republicans as much as the less-white surrounding counties. Last November, this shift came as a shock. But in retrospect, Democrats should have seen it coming—for a giant blinking red light appeared eight months before Election Day. .....Latino voters’ primary-voting patterns foreshadowed their eventual right turn.

....... Any dot to the left of the 100 percent line represents a place where Biden received fewer votes in the primary than Clinton did; any dot to the right represents a county in which he did better. Meantime, the closer to the bottom a data point is, the more it swung toward Republicans between 2016 and 2020. (Florida’s primary was noncompetitive in 2020...

[jmaroneps37]

Yes and it will become more pronou8nced. Two issues will drive the move to the right: abortion and lax borders.