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More Vaccines, More Covid: Why are Case Rates Exploding in Areas with High Levels of Vaccination? What is the Best Hypothesis That Explains This Observation?
Becker News ^ | 09/19/2021 | Kyle Becker

Posted on 09/19/2021 8:41:44 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

As the Covid pandemic continues to defy predictions about when it will finally be ‘over,’ there is a curious phenomenon taking place across the United States and around the globe: Covid-19 case rates increasing alongside vaccination rates.

The textbook examples of this disturbing trend are the nations of Israel, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Israel is now experiencing its fourth wave, which is being accompanied by another round of ‘booster shots.’ Israel has 61.5% of all adults “fully vaccinated” (although the use of ‘booster shots’ throws the term into question.)

The United Kingdom is experiencing another wave despite 66.5% being “fully vaccinated.”

The United States is seeing a wave that is now even larger than the first big wave in terms of cases. The U.S. has a 55% ‘fully vaccinated’ rate, which encompasses all adults, but skews older.

U.S. states vary greatly in terms of vaccination rates. Two prime examples of high case rate and high vaccination rate states are California and Washington. California has strict Covid rules, such as mask mandates and even mandatory vaccination in L.A. County.

Despite vaccination rates of 68% in the 12 and up demographic and 80% in the critical 65 and up demographic, California has experienced yet another wave in August. This has been accompanied by an increasing reported death rate.

Washington state is similar in that it has 73% ‘fully vaccinated’ in the 12 and up demographic, as well 89% in the 65 and up. Like California, these rates will be much higher within weeks. And like California, it is reporting soaring case and mortality rates.

In the midst of these remarkable trends is a brewing controversy: How much immunity is enough? As a baseline, there are two forms of immunity: Vaccinated and natural immunity. It was recently reported that the CDC estimated that 83% of the U.S. population had some form of Covid immunity, based on antibodies detected in blood samples. The CDC study showed that the estimation of those who had contracted Covid and recovered without knowing they had the illness was 120 million people – far higher than then 42 million currently being reported. That was in May. Once one factors in the ongoing Delta wave, that number could be upwards of 150 million people.

Amid this massive spread of natural immunity and vaccinated immunity, the goalposts on what constitutes “herd immunity” has shifted dramatically. “Since the start of the pandemic, the figure that many epidemiologists have offered has been 60 to 70 percent,” the NY Times originally reported in December. “That range is still cited by the World Health Organization and is often repeated during discussions of the future course of the disease.”

“In the pandemic’s early days, Dr. Fauci tended to cite the same 60 to 70 percent estimate that most experts did,” the Times went on. “About a month ago, he began saying ’70, 75 percent’ in television interviews. And last week, in an interview with CNBC News, he said ’75, 80, 85 percent’ and ’75 to 80-plus percent’.”

It is important to note that Dr. Fauci is acting as if natural immunity doesn’t even exist, when we know from the CDC’s studies that it could be as high as 40% in the United States. Regardless, the NIAID Director wants a vaccination target above 80 percent, while knowing that 98% of Covid deaths are among those age 40 and above. What is going on here?

One blogger, under the pseudonym el gato malo, has shown the spotlight on one possible explanation, while admitting that the author suspects “a fair few folks are not going to like hearing it.” In the interest of readability, I will select relevant passages and capitalize them appropriately (the author has chosen a peculiar style than shuns capitalization). The following is a “hypothesis” that represents what the author argues is the “best fit” of the current data in a number of cases under observation.

The current surge in Covid deaths is caused by the vaccinated.

The Covid vaccines are extremely leaky and may well accelerate contracting and carrying Covid.

They allow for very high viral loads to go unnoticed and generate a new and severe asymptomatic spread vector to where none existed before.

The high viral loads lead to greater contagion. they may lead to greater severity (but this data is iffy and contested).

Vaccine campaigns cause superspread events because vaccination leads to a 2 week window of 40-100% more covid risk that then gets counted as “unvaccinated” because the definitions are bad.

This combination makes those vaccinated with one dose or more into superspread bombs.

One might recall the case of the Texas Democrats or the Barack Obama’s birthday party at Martha’s Vineyard, where ‘fully vaccinated’ people gathered and nonetheless spurred ostensible ‘superspreader events.’ In August, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky changed her story and admitted that the vaccinated can indeed spread the Delta variant.

El gato malo presents evidence about why this explanation appears to fit the data in areas where there are case rates exploding despite presumably high levels of vaccinated and natural immunity.

You get a surge of spread… and then you get the later breakthrough cases (because the vaccines do not stop infection and just mitigate severity).

These BT [breakthrough] cases have massively high VL [viral loads] in often asymptomatic superspreaders that pass on high loading doses to the unvaccinated and greatly worsen the overall pandemic.

This further inflates apparent VE [vaccine efficacy] by subjecting the unvaccinated to a more profligate and severe disease vector than they would have been had no vaccination campaign ever been undertaken.

It moves the whole system to a a different valence.

Perversely, if the vaccinated comprise a spread vector that accelerates deaths in the unvaccinated, that would make it look like vaccines work.

Ouch. (Told you you weren’t going to like it).

The researcher then adds the appropriate disclaimer to the argument.

I want to stress, this is a hypothesis and a work in progress. It’s just the best fit to the facts I can find right now and I REALLY hope it’s wrong because if it’s right, this vaccination campaign is probably the worst health blunder in human history and the epidemiology and politics of that will get stunningly, surreally bad.

But if this hypothesis proves out, then calling this an ‘epidemic of the unvaccinated’ is 180 degrees wrong.

Indeed, it would be generous to call it “the worst health blunder in human history.” It would give rise to a diabolical scenario where two opposing camps – the vaccinated and the unvaccinated – would be clashing incessantly over who is killing whom.

The only plausible solution: More vaccines, forever.


TOPICS: Health/Medicine; Science; Society
KEYWORDS: breakthrough; breakthroughcovid; chemtrails; covid; covidvaccines; deltavariant; featurenotfault; infection; mareks; vaccination
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To: nagant
Or, another explanation would be : The unvaccinated people spread the virus until evolutionary trial and error causes the virus to mutate into a form which can easily infect people who were previously protected by the vaccine., regardless of previous vaccination status.
41 posted on 09/19/2021 10:02:45 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Still has never been explained to my satisfaction why “one size fits all,” everywhere measures are taken when dealing with COVID.


42 posted on 09/19/2021 10:02:57 PM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult (`)
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To: LilFarmer

“she got a call from the CDC a few days before she got sick asking her how she was doing with the shot. 6 months after? I thought that was odd.”

VERY odd. My first thought: she was part of an involuntary test group. A new version of the “vaccine”, or a hybrid of some kind. Just a little follow up on their guinea pigs.


43 posted on 09/19/2021 10:03:25 PM PDT by bluejean (Living one day at a time in the national psych ward.)
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To: nagant

If a sufficient number of people had been vaccinated in the first place then the virus would not have had a platform from which to mutate.


The injection makers claim the injections make the disease less severe. And they only seem to do that for a few weeks. Not even Pfizer claims the injections stop transmission so much that it prevents mutations.


44 posted on 09/19/2021 10:05:52 PM PDT by TTFX ( )
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To: moovova

The vaxed are so screwed. I am concerned for my parents. They didnt deserve to be tricked into this. They are the old time people who never ask a doctor a question because they think it’s disrespectful and they assume the doctor knows everything. Serves some of the mass train jumpers right IMHO. The self righteous demanding everyone vax or be forced to be deleted from society deserve the worse outcome. I say we don’t even bother burring the libs. Let them rot and leave fields of bones as a reminder.

I hope it turns into a good lesson into healthy skepticism and erroring on the side of liberty but I have a bad feeling. I think the USA is screwed and many other countries.


45 posted on 09/19/2021 10:06:14 PM PDT by wgmalabama (We will find out if the Vac or virus risk was the correct choice - can we put truth above narrative)
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To: silverleaf

So there’s nobody working in those labs that has a conscience? No whistleblowers to be found in research labs? That’s extremely sad and concerning to me.


46 posted on 09/19/2021 10:10:58 PM PDT by Prince of Space (Irish lives matter!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Add what, don’t lie, we’ve both seen in public. 50% of people got vaccinated, and we saw new cases drop significantly. Vaccinated and unvaccinated people started taking masks off and assembled as if the delta variant wasn’t moving in and threatening. The delta variant capitalized on this behavior just like anyone with half a brain could have predicted.

As for the worse transmission rates in Israel? Israel got heavily vaccinated with Astrazeneca, and less with Pfizer. Astrazeneca is less effective against the alpha variant and FAR less effective against the delta variant than Moderna. Pfizer is less effective against the delta variant than Moderna.


47 posted on 09/19/2021 10:11:38 PM PDT by nagant
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To: nagant

That’s precisely why no respected epidemiologist would even think of introducing a vaccine in the middle of a pandemic, FFS! Are you seriously advocating mandatory vaccinations with a “vaccine” that was only tested for 5 months? It’s still experimental and unapproved, no matter what the media tells you. I can’t believe you’re on this forum, frankly.


48 posted on 09/19/2021 10:16:58 PM PDT by Prince of Space (Irish lives matter!)
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To: SeekAndFind
Regarding England, from this map, the majority of cases are Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Of the 56 deaths reported, only 34 were in England proper with a disproportionate 15 in Wales. England proper claims an 82% overall vaccination rate.

From the map link:
England is 55.6mil and first shot rate is 40mil or 72%
Wales pop is 3.15mil and first shot rate is 2.4 mil or 75%
Scotland is 5.5mil and first shot rate is 4.1 mil or 75%

49 posted on 09/19/2021 10:24:32 PM PDT by blueplum ("...this moment is your moment: it belongs to you... " President Donald J. Trump, Jan 20, 2017) )
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To: LilFarmer

She might be helped by NAC- N-Acetyl Cysteine
https://www.webmd.com/vitamins/ai/ingredientmono-1018/n-acetyl-cysteine-nac

The FDA forced Amazon to take it off their shelves, but it is easy to find elsewhere.


50 posted on 09/19/2021 10:28:44 PM PDT by matthew fuller (Freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor. It must be demanded by the oppressed. MLK, Jr.)
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To: Sequoyah101

The “vaccines” are working.

They are a cure for Wuhan flu hysteria, not a vaccine for the flu.

Hysteria sufferers who get the vaccine overcome their hysteria, drop their precautions and get the flu.

The success of the vaccinations is measured by the number of vaccinated who get the flu.

Herd immunity can be delayed but not avoided.


51 posted on 09/19/2021 10:29:35 PM PDT by TheDon (Resist the usurpers)
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To: SeekAndFind

It is working just like they planned for population control/reduction.


52 posted on 09/19/2021 10:31:51 PM PDT by taxesareforever (Islam is an ideology. It is NOT a religion.)
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To: matthew fuller

Good reminder, I’ll let them know. I had bought some a while back so I can send some over.


53 posted on 09/19/2021 10:33:07 PM PDT by LilFarmer
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To: SeekAndFind

What’s being labeled as COVID is actually reactions to the vax, or ADE reactions to other normally mild and harmless illnesses.


54 posted on 09/19/2021 10:58:19 PM PDT by metmom (...fixing our eyes on Jesus, the Author and Perfecter of our faith…)
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To: SeekAndFind

If the experimental jab limits the severity but increases the likelihood of spreading and catching the coof then do the statistics prove it is a better option than eschewing the jab and everyone relying on treatments like regeneron???

And add in that it might make sense for one definable group but not others? i.e. healthy young people under 18 vs frail oldsters larded down with comorbidity?

The answer will be in the statistics, but who can trust the statistics given the mendacity we have been witness to?


55 posted on 09/19/2021 11:01:46 PM PDT by Bobalu (The plan must be to distract from Afghanistan by doing something even more stupid )
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To: SeekAndFind
The pandemic in Calif has been driven over the summer by tourists, those 'essential workers' who never stopped partying and/or are freely going to Mexico and back, where the mortality rate is 9% and the infection rate is anywhere from 5 to 20 along with the usual illegal transients. In July, the hospitalization rate amongst unvaccinated was 29.2 x that of vaccinated. According to the San Diego Times 0.2% of deaths and 0.5% of hospitalizations between Jan 1 2021 and Sep 2021 in San Deigo were vaccinated with the remainder unvaccinated - San Diego being a border town and most reflective of Los Angeles as far as latinx percentages go.

According to California's dashboard, : California is publishing a 77% fully vaccinated rate with an RO of 3.4%

From Aug 29 - Sep 4, unvaccinated were 8x more likely to test positive

57.1% of new cases were age group 18=49
14.4% of new cases were below age 17

53% of confirmed cases were Latinx; 45.8% of deaths were Latinx
6.8% of confirmed cases were Asian; and 11.7% of deaths were Asian
22.4% of confirmed cases were White; 31.8% of deaths were White

72% of deaths were over 65
20% of deaths were 50=64

56 posted on 09/19/2021 11:03:43 PM PDT by blueplum ("...this moment is your moment: it belongs to you... " President Donald J. Trump, Jan 20, 2017) )
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To: Prince of Space
So there’s nobody working in those labs that has a conscience? No whistleblowers to be found in research labs? That’s extremely sad and concerning to me.

There are. They are out there trying to get the message out.

They are being vilified and deplatformed and written off as conspiracy theory kooks by the government, medical community, and MSM.

57 posted on 09/19/2021 11:05:58 PM PDT by metmom (...fixing our eyes on Jesus, the Author and Perfecter of our faith…)
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To: LilFarmer
If what you are describing is accurate and your son's girlfriend is ill and it is respiratory in nature although you don't specifically say so. Then CDC makes contact.

You also say she tested negative for covid x 3. I will bet they either know or are looking for OC43, another corona virus that the antibodies conferred from the jab have an increased back boost affinity to.

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)00706-6?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS0092867421007066%3Fshowall%3Dtrue

“Highlights


Antibody responses after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination target RBD, NTD, and S2

SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination induces a high rate of non-neutralizing antibodies

Crossreactive antibodies to seasonal β-coronaviruses are induced by vaccination

Variant mutation N501Y enhances affinity to human ACE2 while E484K reduces it”

“Summary
In this study we profiled vaccine-induced polyclonal antibodies as well as plasmablast-derived mAbs from individuals who received SARS-CoV-2 spike mRNA vaccine. Polyclonal antibody responses in vaccinees were robust and comparable to or exceeded those seen after natural infection. However, the ratio of binding to neutralizing antibodies after vaccination was greater than that after natural infection and, at the monoclonal level, we found that the majority of vaccine-induced antibodies did not have neutralizing activity. We also found a co-dominance of mAbs targeting the NTD and RBD of SARS-CoV-2 spike and an original antigenic-sin like backboost to spikes of seasonal human coronaviruses OC43 and HKU1. Neutralizing activity of NTD mAbs but not RBD mAbs against a clinical viral isolate carrying E484K as well as extensive changes in the NTD was abolished, suggesting that a proportion of vaccine-induced RBD binding antibodies may provide substantial protection against viral variants carrying single E484K RBD mutations.”

” We also found a co-dominance of mAbs targeting the NTD and RBD of SARS-CoV-2 spike and an original antigenic-sin like backboost to spikes of seasonal human coronaviruses OC43 and HKU1.”

They, the CDC, seems to be following a case of OAS or original antigenic-sin.

58 posted on 09/19/2021 11:08:40 PM PDT by Polynikes ( Hakkaa paalle)
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To: Polynikes

https://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=242430

“if there’s a boost to the virulence of OC43 it has a proved capacity to kill — and might again, being potentiated by getting the jabs.”


59 posted on 09/19/2021 11:10:49 PM PDT by Polynikes ( Hakkaa paalle)
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To: El Cid; LilFarmer
Weird thing - she got a call from the CDC a few days before she got sick asking her how she was doing with the shot. 6 months after? I thought that was odd.

Prank call from some high schoolers, telephoning random strangers and inquiring about whether they have experienced any bleeding from the rectum since they got vaxxed?

Regards,

60 posted on 09/19/2021 11:15:45 PM PDT by alexander_busek (Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.)
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