India's Ivermectin Blackout - Part III: The Lesson of Kerala

The New York Times reported India’s colossal drop in COVID cases was unexplainable, while the BBC declared that Kerala’s rise was also a mystery. While new cases of COVID in Uttar Pradesh are rare as million-dollar lottery tickets, in Kerala, a tiny state located in southern India, new daily cases are the same as the United States, nearly one case per thousand. Yet, as we have seen in this series, there has been a curious media blackout on India’s overall success against COVID.

"Kerala has been reporting over 22,000 new COVID infections in the last three days. No other state in India is even close to the 10,000 mark. The COVID conundrum in the southern state has led to several questions, with no certain answers."

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/this-may-explain-why-covid-cases-are-still-soaring-in-kerala/articleshow/84862049.cms

The Times of India published this statement on July 29. Kerala has continued to have the majority of new daily cases and almost 25% of India's daily deaths despite a population of 34 million, less than 3% of India's total population.

On August 15, Kerala accounted for 18,582 of India's 32,937 new cases and 102 of India's 417 new deaths. By contrast, the Ivermectin-using state of Delhi, with nearly the same population size, recorded only 53 new cases and ZERO deaths. In comparison, Uttar Pradesh, with almost eight times as many inhabitants, had only 30 new cases and ONE death.

Kerala had 619 times as many new cases as Uttar Pradesh and over 100 times as many deaths.

Uttar Pradesh led India in its use and has done even better than Delhi because they use Ivermectin early and preventatively.

"Uttar Pradesh was the first state in the country to introduce large-scale prophylactic and therapeutic use of Ivermectin. In May-June 2020, a team at Agra led by Dr. Anshul Pareek, administered Ivermectin to all RRT team members in the district on an experimental basis. It was observed that NONE OF THEM developed COVID-19 despite being in daily contact with patients who had tested positive for the virus," Uttar Pradesh State Surveillance Officer Vikssendu Agrawal said.

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/lucknow/uttar-pradesh-government-says-ivermectin-helped-to-keep-deaths-low-7311786/

Uttar Pradesh has a policy of treating ALL the contacts of an infected patient prophylactically with Ivermectin. In other words, in Uttar Pradesh, everyone in the house gets Ivermectin treatment even if only one is infected. Ivermectin is known to reduce mortality in infected and dramatically lowers the viral load, thereby helping reduce the spread of the virus to others.

Dr. Tess Lawrie discussed the Ivermectin-related reduction in viral load and reduced transmissibility.

https://journals.lww.com/americantherapeutics/fulltext/2021/08000/ivermectin_for_prevention_and_treatment_of.7.aspx

Tamil Nadu rejected India's Ivermectin protocol on May 14 in favor of Remdesivir and mirrored our U.S. FDA policy. The U.S. also reflected Tamil Nadu’s dismal results.

https://www.thedesertreview.com/opinion/letters_to_editor/tamil-nadu-leads-india-in-new-infections-denies-citizens-ivermectin/article_32634012-ba66-11eb-9211-ab378d521f9a.html

To be clear, on April 22, the All India Institute of Medical Science (AIIMS) and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) added Ivermectin to the protocol as an option for the early treatment – even in mild cases – of COVID-19.

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/aiims-new-treatment-guidelines-for-covid19-1794038-2021-04-22

This guideline was updated May 17, 2021, and continues to incorporate Ivermectin, although some states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala have chosen NOT to adopt this Ivermectin protocol – much to their detriment.

https://covid.aiims.edu/clinical-guidance-for-management-of-adult-covid-19-patients/

Despite a widespread attempt by the media and WHO to convince the world that India has dropped Ivermectin by citing the DGHS, the ICMR and AIIMS have not changed their position, and Ivermectin remains in the India National Protocol.

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/healthcare/biotech/pharmaceuticals/hcq-out-of-dghs-covid-care-list-but-still-present-in-icmr-protocol/articleshow/83321687.cms

While Kerala included Ivermectin in their state’s guideline in April, they restricted it’s use to only in Class B - severe cases or those with associated disease, making its use much less than if mild cases were allowed. This meant it was reserved as a late treatment if used at all.

https://health.kerala.gov.in/pdf/Kerala_state_Covid_19_Treatment_guidelines_V4_August_5.pdf

Juan Chamie, the Cambridge-based data analyst who has provided graphical insight and published on COVID, provided his answer to why Kerala's COVID cases have spun out of control.

"My main current explanation is the lack of early treatment. Kerala’s COVID protocol from April 2021 included Ivermectin, but not as an early treatment. As a result, only a small group qualified, those in Category B patients having high-risk factors. The new protocol from August 5 is even worse. They removed Ivermectin (completely)."

Another factor, according to Juan, was poor contact tracing. In addition, according to an Indian Governmental Audit, FAMILY TRANSMISSION was a significant problem.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/central-team-pinpoints-flaws-in-states-covid-protocol/article35860715.ece

The Hindu reported on August 11, 2021, stated, "In districts such as Malappuram and Kozhikode, where the family size is huge and joint families are the norm, the transmission was spreading within families leading to a high test positivity rate."

Juan Chamie added this about the test positivity rate, “If you look at the test positivity rate of Kerala, it declined from over 25% to 10% and remained stable around it. Since the last protocol change that removed Ivermectin, the positivity rate is increasing. In less than two weeks, the positivity rate jumped and right now is above 15%, the highest in the last two months.”

However, the most problematic feature is Kerala's high vaccination rate compared to the other Indian States. While vaccination should be a good thing, it can have severe negative consequences when it leads to rampant viral transmission.

Uttar Pradesh beats all other states (except Bihar) with the lowest COVID deaths and infections because of early and preventative Ivermectin use IN ALL FAMILY CONTACTS. This is despite Uttar Pradesh having only a 4.9% vaccination rate, one of the five lowest of all states in India. On the other hand, Kerala ranks in the top five most vaccinated states. Kerala has vaccinated 70% citizens 45 years and older, and almost 56% of its population has had at least one shot.

The problem with that is that vaccination may give a state a false sense of security.

For example, in an article published on August 13, the details of the Kerala lockdown were discussed. Those with a PCR negative test, those with prior resolved COVID infection, and those WITH AT LEAST ONE VACCINATION were exempted.

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/kerala-covid-19-lockdown-rules-guidelines-explained-7439694/

As of August 13, 56 percent of Kerala adults over age 18 who had received at least one shot were allowed to mingle and transmit the virus freely. While Ivermectin lowers the viral load and inhibits transmission, the same cannot be said for vaccination.

Viral loads of the vaccinated are just as high as those of the unvaccinated as the CDC has admitted. This means that a vaccinated infected person can spread the virus just as quickly as an unvaccinated. Moreover, the viral load of the Delta infection is often on the order of 1,000 times greater than in the original strain. Finally, a vaccinated person may have milder or no symptoms leading them to take fewer precautions.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/07/30/1022867219/cdc-study-provincetown-delta-vaccinated-breakthrough-mask-guidance

Many people believe that breakthrough infections in the vaccinated are a rare occurrence. However, the truth of the matter is the opposite. Breakthrough infections can occur with even GREATER FREQUENCY in the vaccinated. For example, in the recent Massachusetts outbreak, the CDC reported that out of 469 cases, fully 74% occurred in the vaccinated.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/cdc-study-shows-74percent-of-people-infected-in-massachusetts-covid-outbreak-were-fully-vaccinated.html

Finally, the top five states surging in the United States with record COVID infections currently contain two states in the most vaccinated third: Oregon and Hawaii.

The situation in Oregon is severe enough to call the National Guard, while Hawaii's health director is using terms like disaster and crisis.

"When we see this exponential growth in the amount of people that are getting infected with COVID-19 every day - 2,000 people in the last three days – that’s a crisis. And at the point at which we overwhelm our resources, that's a disaster."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/16/we-are-on-fire-five-us-states-set-new-records-for-covid-cases-as-hospitalizations-rise-.html

As of August 16, 2021, Hawaii ranked number 17 in percent fully vaccinated at 54.29%. Oregon ranked number 12 with 56.79%.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-percentage-of-population-vaccinated-march-15.html

And the Indian state of Kerala ranks in the top five most vaccinated of India's 29 states. However, if a vaccinated person spreads the virus while someone on Ivermectin does not, that would explain Kerala's epic failure.

Ivermectin can make up for the low use of vaccination. However, vaccination cannot make up for the low use of Ivermectin

Tamil Nadu rejected India’s Ivermectin protocol on May 14 in favor of Remdesivir and mirrored our U.S. FDA policy. The U.S. also reflected Tamil Nadu’s dismal results.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tamil Nadu’s dismal results? Their per capita death rate is currently 1/20th that of the United States. Their deaths fell 95% from peak without using Ivermectin. With a population of around 60 million they now have under 20 deaths per day.

Dr. Justus Hope at the Desert Review needs to look at the current data. It’s not late May any more. Back then, Tamil Nadu’s data was peaking and he was writing dramatically about how Tamil Nadu had failed its public. Since then TN’s data has swung the other way, but Dr. Hope doesn’t seem to have noticed, or at least it’s not registering in his writing.

BTW, an interesting comparison that I haven’t seen made is between the Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. They neighbor each other in the southern part of the country and have nearly the same population. But while Karnataca decided to use Ivermectin, TN did not. So you might expect to see a big difference in their data, right? Well, that’s not the case. Instead their data look nearly identical.

My point is that what’s happening in India might not be as clear cut as it’s sometimes portrayed.

Here’s a site whose plots have a ‘compare’ function that makes it easy to overlay different country and state data:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/india/tamil-nadu?view=daily-deaths&tab=trend

Doesn’t sound like vaccines have much to do with India’s success.

https://www.businesstoday.in/coronavirus/story/covid-19-vaccination-current-rate-india-take-12-years-vaccinate-70pc-population-290723-2021-03-13

COVID-19 vaccination: At current rate, India will take 10.8 years to vaccinate 70% population
India administered 1,87,55,540 first doses of the vaccine in the first 17 days of March. At this rate, it will take 2.36 years for India to vaccinate 70 per cent of its population with the initial dose of the two-dose regime vaccination programme.

India, the second most populous country in the world, has administered the first dose of COVID-19 vaccine to 3.06 crore people till March 18, 2021. However, this figure represents only 2.3 per cent of India’s 135.5 crore population. Full vaccination (both doses) has been given to only 0.5 per cent of the total population. At this rate, India will take 10.8 years to administer both doses to 70 per cent of its population to attain herd immunity.

As per the vaccination data of Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), India administered 1,87,55,540 first doses of the vaccine in the first 17 days of March (from 7am on March 1 to 7am on March 18). This translates to an average of 11,03,267.1 first doses per day. At this rate, it will take 2.36 years for India to vaccinate 70 per cent of its population and 3.4 years to vaccinate the entire population with the initial dose of the two-dose regime vaccination programme.

However, the vaccination time period is even higher if data for administering second dose is considered. A total of 40,86,218 second doses were administered in the first 17 days of the month, an average of 2,40,365.8 doses per day. At this rate, it will take 10.8 years to vaccinate 70 per cent of India’s population and 15.4 years to cover the entire population.

Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP) Data
Aggregate Data as of September 1, 2021

[My somewhat hasty selection follows:]
Convalescent Plasma Death 3
Convalescent Plasma / Remdesivir Death 3
COVID-19 Medications Death 10
COVID-19 Vaccine Bell’s Palsy 20
COVID-19 Vaccine Blood Clots 30
COVID-19 Vaccine Bursitis 3
COVID-19 Vaccine Death 44
COVID-19 Vaccine Death / GBS 2
COVID-19 Vaccine Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT) 6
COVID-19 Vaccine Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT) / Pulmonary Embolism (PE) 5
COVID-19 Vaccine Guillain-Barrè Syndrome (GBS) 20
COVID-19 Vaccine Myasthenia Gravis Disease 2
COVID-19 Vaccine Myocarditis 11
COVID-19 Vaccine Paralysis 6
COVID-19 Vaccine Parsonage Turner Syndrome (PTS) 3
COVID-19 Vaccine Pericarditis 12
COVID-19 Vaccine Pulmonary Embolism 14
COVID-19 Vaccine Seizures 10
COVID-19 Vaccine Severe Allergic Reaction 12
COVID-19 Vaccine Tachycardia 5
COVID-19 Vaccine Unable to Breathe / Unresponsive 1
COVID-19 Vaccine Unable to Walk 1
COVID-19 Vaccine Unresponsive / Foaming at Mouth / Low Blood Pressure 1
COVID-19 Vaccine Unresponsive / Tachycardia / Low Heart Rate / Pain 1
COVID-19 Vaccine Vestibular Neuritis 3
Hydroxychloroquine Death 19
Remdesivir Death 27
Ventilator Death 135
Ventilator / Covid-19 Medications Death
Ventilator / Hydroxychloroquine Death 22
Ventilator / Hydroxychloroquine / Azithromycin Death 50
Total Filed 2,392

https://www.hrsa.gov/cicp/cicp-data

Claims are generally only made in cases where the side effects are severe.

Since the cause is not always clear, actual serious cases may be several times higher.

It takes time to justify and file a claim, so claim counts lag actual injuries.

“ I have said ivermectin is weakly useful if at all. This is what the data show.”

So, you are either ignorant or a liar. Which is it?

Time and time again Ivermectin is has been shown to help. But here you are, trying to get people to ignore this while pushing vaccines and other treatments which have been shown NOT to help. You should be ashamed of yourself and I hope nobody here follows your “expertise” to the morgue.

I actually push the far more effective monoclonals for treatment. So the only liar here is you trying to state that I favor vaccines instead. I favor things that work. And the truth is that monoclonal treatment is superior in every way to ivermectin

You are happy to ignore the negative ivermectin stories including the falsified study. When you have no consensus within the medical community and equivocal data is generally points toward a marginal treatment.

Finally I am sick of the misdirection they ivermectin is a safe drug. It is. And it is effective. For parasites. It is disingenuous to say it’s safe for Covid. It as the data show is weakly effective.

It just look pretty good from the cheap seats to huff and puff and call people liars. When you have the guts or knowledge to stand by a bed and treat these patients let me know.

You are the liar.

Good day

I have zero issues with monoclonal treatments. The problem with them is twofold. They are expensive, and not readily available. No way could 300 million people get them in anything resembling short order, and that only covers the US. Billions for the world are out of the question.

Study after study (far more than the “vaccines” themselves btw) have proven Ivermectin works. Before covid, there were many studies that mentioned it’s anti-viral capabilities. Lots of medicines have uses beyond their original intent. No? Your attempt to pretend that isn’t the case exposes you.

Ivermectin has been administered literally billions of times to humans. It’s amazingly safe. You constantly attempt to gaslight people and tell them it isn’t so. Your struggling with your patients might just be because you refuse to think for yourself and are illogically dismissing Ivermectin, when the safety is well known.

Some doctor. I’m glad you’re not mine. I wonder how many people you’ve killed with your closed mind.

Honesty check time.

New study out and it proves what I’ve been saying about the benefits of Ivermectin are correct, and that your position is incorrect. As an alleged doctor, you might want to consult with your malpractice insurer as you may have opened yourself to litigation if you lost any patients after ignoring the previous clear evidence. Shame on you

Time to man up and admit you were wrong.

https://journals.lww.com/americantherapeutics/Fulltext/2021/08000/Ivermectin_for_Prevention_and_Treatment_of.7.aspx

I decided to see how Deserete Review was rated as an objective news source. Then I discovered that the true name was Desert Review. I then looked at a report on them by mediabiasfactcheck.com. While reporting that Desert Review was generally factual on many stories, it was also “guilty” of promoting pseudoscience and other questionable ideas. It then devoted the rest of the report on DR by lashing out at Ivermectin in great detail. No mention of any other “bad” topics. The anti Ivermectin forces really have no confidence that Ivermection will fail on its own lack of utility, it needs a concentrated war to put it down.

After checking on the main stream vie of Desert Review as a source of information on Covid in Uttar Pradesh, I decided to seek other sources on the success of handling Covid in UP. This article in Hindustan Times this summer reports on PM Modi’s visit to the sacred city of Varanasi. He lavished praise on UP for its successful public health efforts. He did not mention Ivermectin (fear of US opinion?) but praised the vaccine effort, which I think is about 10%, far lower than Kerala’s 25% (with far higher death figures). [Note: I will have to double check these figures, but am leaving town shortly and have to pack.]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/others/uttar-pradesh-s-tackling-of-second-covid-wave-unprecedented-pm-modi-101626352627800.html

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