Vaccination rates per states versus 7-day average positivity rates

https://peacebyjesuscom.blogspot.com ^ | Fri, 09/10/21 | daniel1212

[daniel1212]

Vaccination rates per states versus 7-day average positivity rates

 

I do not support mandated vaccination, nor vouch for the  collective safety of all such (yet I do not oppose all vaccines), and hold that preventable poor health is the overall real problem in Covid-assigned deaths. However, in engaging in ongoing research on this issue I compiled the  following comparison of vaccination rates compared with positivity rates that I found,  though the 7-day scope of  positivity rates should be larger.  And remember that (speaking of scope) eternity is what is most important. 

States ranked by percentage of population fully vaccinated: Sept. 9, according to the CDC's data (from beckershospitalreview.com compilation )		States ranked by COVID-19 test positivity rates: 7-day moving averages as of Sept. 8, according to Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center (from beckershospitalreview.com compilation)
Rank per % of population fully vaccinated:	Percentage:	Numbers are positivity rate ranks (lowest to highest) but with states listed in comparison with vaccination rates	7-day positivity rates of    COVID-19 tests per 100,000 people
1. Vermont	68.35	4. Vermont	3
2. Connecticut	66.66	7. Connecticut	3.4
3. Massachusetts	66.52	2. Massachusetts:	2.3
4. Maine	66.45	18. Maine	7.7
5. Rhode Island	65.69	3. Rhode Island:	2.4
6. New Jersey	62.27	41. New Jersey	16.3
7. Maryland	62.2	8. Maryland	3.9
8. New York	61.1	5. New York	3.3
9. Washington	60.94	33. Washington	13.8
10. New Mexico	60.8	11. New Mexico	5.2
11. New Hampshire	60.28	12. New Hampshire	5.7
12. Oregon	58.72	21. Oregon	8.9
13. District of Columbia	58.08	10. District of Columbia	5
14. Virginia	58.03	39. Virginia	15.6
15. Colorado	57.59	13. Colorado	5.7
16. California	56.65	6. California	3.3
17. Minnesota	56.6	15. Minnesota	6.6
18. Delaware	56.	22. Delaware	9
19. Hawaii	55.89	17. Hawaii	7.5
20. Pennsylvania	55.87	23. Pennsylvania	9
21. Wisconsin	54.63	19. Wisconsin	8.6
22. Florida	54.35	1. Florida (Florida is no longer providing daily pandemic data reports)	0
23. Nebraska	52.84	16. Nebraska	7.3
24. Iowa	52.36	1. Iowa:	0
25. Illinois	51.85	9. Illinois	4.5
26. Michigan	50.92	36. Michigan	15
27. South Dakota	49.84	42. South Dakota	17.5
28. Kentucky	49.48	38. Kentucky	15.3
29. Arizona	49.31	24. Arizona	9.2
30. Kansas	49.06	47. Kansas	30.7
31. Ohio	48.9	35. Ohio	14.4
32. Nevada	48.67	27. Nevada	10.6
33. Texas	48.46	29. Texas	11.6
34. Utah	48.34	40. Utah	15.9
35. Alaska	48.02	14. Alaska	6
36. North Carolina	47.22	31. North Carolina	13.1
37. Montana	46.79	26. Montana	10.2
38. Indiana	46.74	20. Indiana	8.8
39. Missouri	45.88	34. Missouri	13.9
40. Oklahoma	44.9	46. Oklahoma	30.5
41. South Carolina	44.36	37. South Carolina	15.1
42. Arkansas	42.92	43. Arkansas	17.6
43. Tennessee	42.79	45. Tennessee	29.4
44. Georgia	42.76	44. Georgia	20.9
45. Louisiana	42.6	28. Louisiana	11.4
46. North Dakota	42.22	30. North Dakota	11.7
47. West Virginia	39.82	25. West Virginia	10
48. Idaho	39.75	49. Idaho	39.3
49. Mississippi	39.6	48. Mississippi	36
50. Wyoming	39.55	32. Wyoming	13.6
51. Alabama	39.53	1. Alabama	0

[SeekAndFind]

The X factor that isn’t shown in these tables is ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION. Given the hundreds of thousands of illegals being tranported to various states, many we know being Covid positive, we ought to find out if there is a correlation between surging cases and the destination of illegals.

[cp124]

The fake PCR test? I believe nothing coming out of the deep state shadow government.

[SuzyQue]

Exactly.

[Buttons12]

What’s up with AL? Folks there tell me covid is rampant in AL.

[fireman15]

The trends are a lot easier to see if you graph it.

The dotted line on your graph is obviously heavily influenced by the outliers which makes it almost meaningless. If you omitted the line your chart would look more like random dots. If you omitted the outliers the line would might descend from maybe 10 to 8 instead of 22 to 2. Am I detecting a strong urge toward confirmation bias?

You do realize that the “experimental vaccines” offer very little protection from the much more transmissible “Delta Variant”?

There are a large number of variables in play that the numbers that you are using do not reflect. The most obvious discrepancy has to do with when the “Delta variant” became an issue in each state. States where it struck first are in serious decline while some states like Idaho where you live are in the early stages still have increasing numbers. Your charting method might have some validity 6 months from now when everything has settled back down but currently the data is in too much flux to come to any meaningful conclusions. It is all apples to oranges depending on which part of the cycle each state is in.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

[ProtectOurFreedom]

It is not easy to get numbers for the "Delta Variant." It requires a very expensive genetic sequencing test that most hospitals cannot do. So specimens have to selectively be sent out for tests by CDC and other labs. As a result, we are getting a sample of a population of people with Delta.

Nurses have reported here that hospital charts do not identify the variant that a patient has. People who have had tests or have been discharged from a hospital are not told which variant they have.

I have not seen any explanation of the scientific methods or statistical analysis being performed to determine variants.

It is very hard to discern trends or patterns in tabular data, so I merely plotted the data that Daniel1212 reported on to make trends in HIS data more obvious. I didn't dig into whether the data he provided are credible. I make no claims about the quality of the data -- I'm just a charting service here!

With the very dynamic situation, it is indeed hard to really figure out what is going on. We probably won't have clear pictures until some years down the road. But the excellent "NextStrain" open source project collects genetic sequence data to determine the spread of strains. If you have not looked at it, it's worth checking and following. Here is the data from a moment ago. The Delta strain is indeed spreading rapidly.

Here is a subset of the data for July 2, 2021 through today. Note that this subset is only for 614 of 2736 genomes sampled. A total of 2,736 genomes sampled is not a very large data set.

[fireman15]

It is not easy to get numbers for the “Delta Variant.” It requires a very expensive genetic sequencing test that most hospitals cannot do.

You seem to have a misunderstanding about how the “Delta Variant” numbers are derived. At this time they make up more than 90% of cases nationwide but this varies from state to state. Individuals cannot generally get tests that determine what strain that they have. And you are correct that hospitals do not do this type of testing. Authorities from health departments send samples to labs who do this type of “genetic sequencing” and it is from these results that a state’s percentage of “Delta Variant” cases are calculated.

This is all of course easily manipulated by both human error, intentional “cherry picking”, sample dates, and a number of other factors.

[daniel1212]

"Thanks for collecting the data. The trends are a lot easier to see if you graph it. Some of the data labels are hard to read and it's almost impossible to move individual labels in Excel. "

I see it all fine on a desktop, but anything less it not too good for such. And my table is simply copied data that I made a table with using a word processor (OpenOffice) and copied and pasted in my blog, then selected it all and (in Firefox) r. clicked and choose "View selection source" and copied and pasted that in FR. Thank God for such free tools.

"I was surprised at the strong correlation between Vax Rate and Pos Rate. R2 would be even higher if I took out the outliers ID, MS, TN, OK, and KS. I wonder why those five states are outliers. "

What if you took out the states that receive most of the immigrants from countries with high infection rates?

[daniel1212]

" It must be that Iowa and Alabama have not reported. They cannot be 0. "

As said, the 7-day span is too short.

[daniel1212]

"What’s with Florida? Why have they stopped the daily reporting?"

[June] Florida is transitioning into the next phase of the COVID-19 response,” the Florida Department of Health wrote in an emailed statement Monday. “As vaccinations increase and new case positivity rate decreases, the Florida Department of Health has moved to a weekly reporting schedule.” Alabama moved to a new schedule on Monday in which the state will update case and death data three times a week and vaccination data twice a week. - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/florida-alabama-no-longer-reporting-daily-covid-case-and-death-data.html

[daniel1212]

"In most places in the US we are already on the downward side of the Delta wave. Biden’s latest Covid proclamation was purely for political reasons so that they can claim victory over a trend that was already in place."

In any case that will be the claim.

[daniel1212]

Also, July 28, 2021: The CDC “now advises that vaccinated people be tested for the virus if they come into contact with someone with Covid-19, even if they have no symptoms. Previously, the health agency had said that fully vaccinated people did not need to be tested after exposure to the virus unless they were experiencing symptoms.” - https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/07/28/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine Meaning stats were misleading.

[daniel1212]

"Alabama should be 12/100k not 0 according to worldometers. Nice way to present data if it were accurate. Did not check other states"

I found one site that provided both stats and did not look for me, and it took about an hour to more to compile and present. But thanks for the reference. Link?

[daniel1212]

"I’d be grateful if we can show a similar table for HOSPITALIZATION and Deaths due to Covid broken down by states." Yes, States ranked by COVID-19 hospitalization rates: Sept. 10. States ranked by COVID-19 death rates: Sept. 10

Meaning if an average of 721,844 doses per day were administered in the last week, (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution) providers were administering about 826,000 doses per day on average (Dec 17, 2020), about a 76 percent decrease from the peak of 3.38 million reported on April 13 (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), then how is it that only enough doses have been administered to cover 59.2% of the total population? No time for math right now.

[brookwood]

“Interesting...Alabama”

Clearly Alabama does not have a 0% positivity rate.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/alabama/
2500 cases and 20 deaths per day 7 day average.
Better to compare the number of cases as a pct of population than the positivity rate. But thanks daniel1212 for posting this. Even simple data analysis is better than the usual media crap-fest.

[brookwood]

This is great daniel 1212! Forget the hysteria, let's get back to a normal life and dump Biden and company. Correlation between vaccination rate and positivity rate is negative .61 - higher vaccination means less Covid. This is using Daniel1212 data into Excel. Also living where Covid already killed all the old / vulnerable people - like NYC - helps lower the risk. The high vaccination rate in the Northeast is combined with extremely high natural immunity. Get vaccinated so you will be alive to vote Biden out! This is the Trump vaccine! The Biden vaccine is the one that will turn you into a zombie