Posted on 08/21/2021 11:07:12 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler
How long will it be until China, sensing Biden's obvious weakness, makes their move to annex Taiwan?
My guess: September 11, 2021.
When is Xi’s birthday?
The best time to invade Taiwan is during the dry season of November to February.
Anytime now......
October 10 (or 10/10, also referred to often as “Double Ten Day”) can be a bit confusing because it seems similar in its purpose to Founding Day. Actually, it doesn’t signify independence, but the beginning of the Wuchang Uprising in Mainland China. The uprising brought about the end of the Qing Dynasty and the eventual founding of the Republic of China.
< 6 months.
Next 90 days I suspect, China has been making daily fly overs, naval incursions into Taiwan waters and Air spaces...soon landing craft and cargo places loaded with paratroopers will be arriving.
Taiwan isn’t necessarily defenseless.. .she has an Air Force and a Navy. She wouldn’t be able to withstand a prolonged war vs. the PRC, but she could bite hard enough to deter aggression.
I foresee the PRC upping the intimidation, increasing naval deployments and harassing air maneuvers... in other words sword rattling... I don’t believe an invasion will occur anytime soon... as in the next year or two. The PRC would want to neutralize the US 7th fleet first... not going to happen.
They won’t.
They do not have the ability to invade Taiwan.
“They won’t.
They do not have the ability to invade Taiwan”.
You’re right. All this invasion talk is nonsense.
If anything, they’ll blockade Taiwan and wait them out.
China will send a civilian sampan internal migration flotilla armed with CNN uplinks and cameras.
Based on Joe’s rapid dementia decline I predict before the end of this year January 1,2022.
From my home page
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Posted by Kevin OMalley to nickcarraway On News/Activism
01/12/2005 12:07:37 PM PST · 17 of 25
Here is my swag on what is going to happen in Taiwan, posted on an earlier thread,
‘China Rapidly Modernizes for War With U.S..
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1285398/posts
1) The one-child policy has created a testosterone-rich generation the likes of which no one on earth has ever seen. China will have an entire army of what they call ‘little dictators who have few prospects of finding women, and they will be very aggressively pushing their old-guard superiors for action on the Taiwan issue. The final straw will be that they’ll be promised wives when they invade Taiwan.
2) Their army is as much as 200 Million strong, which was the size predicted in Revelation in the Bible, called ‘The Kings of the East. They can afford casualties in the range of 10 million, which is 5 times bigger than our army ever was. China has some unfinished business with Vietnam, having fought to a standoff in 1979. They might do a run through Vietnam first so that their troups are more battle-hardened and arrogant, knowing that the US didn’t exactly win there. The added bonus is they get one of the largest warm water ports in the world.
3) Taiwan has never declared independence. It’s not like the brave Estonians standing up to Russia when communism fell. They’re like an impudent child claiming to have sovereignty over China. Their fatal miscalculation is that they know they’ll need Americans to fight for them if they are in a war, but Americans will be reluctant to shed blood for an ally that didn’t have the courage to declare independence until they were invaded on an ‘internal dispute. The chinese will hammer away at this in the press.
4) Chinese weapons policy has been to cycle through older generations of weaponry and stay about one generation behind the latest stuff. They sold their old silkworm missiles to the Iranians and used that money to upgrade their newer missiles, which are inferior to US missiles but they only need to be functional. The plan is to overwhelm defenses with superior numbers. No ship can stand up to 50 supersonic silkworm missiles aimed at it. They have similar tactics for other systems, such as anti aircraft missiles.
5) The chinese went up against Americans in Korea. They sent in 300 thousand infantry up against a much smaller American force. The key was that they only had rifles for about 1 in 5 personnel. So they would tell one to go as far as he could till he got shot, then the 2nd one would pick up the rifle & keep charging, and so on. Today, every one of those infantrymen has an automatic rifle. They are not as well equipped as their US counterparts but they can afford a lot of casualties. Vietnam, Iraq, Somalia and other engagements proved that you can’t replace feet on the ground with air superiority. No matter how advanced the air force is nor how many smart bombs get dropped, the US won’t be able to dislodge a standing army without sending in massive troup numbers and experiencing casualties. If our press made a big deal about losing 1000 US soldiers in Iraq, they’ll have a heydey with 500 thousand casualties. Seeing the press reaction emboldens the Chinese.
6) China is building a blue-water navy including submarines. They might be able to achieve a standoff in the surrounding ocean, limiting the ability to resupply american troups while the chinese troups will pillage Taiwan. Once America loses 2 nuclear powered aircraft carriers (with the resulting radioactive plumes), the calculation is that the U.S. will lose stomach for more fighting.
7) The trick to defeating these strategies with minimal casualties will be special forces operating in Taiwan. They will need to have the ability to direct standoff weapons fire onto individual tanks and squad units in order to be effective.
8) The most likely outcome will be that Taiwan will be a giant pile of rubble. Casualties could run as high as WWII. If China wins, it could be a Pyrrhic victory. If the US wins, it will take a whole generation to repair and rebuild. I think the Chinese view towards weakness or perceived weakness is a little bit like how Germany viewed the U.S. after we sent 10,000 men wandering in the hills to find Pancho Villa, to no avail. The Germans perceived it as weakness and went ahead with their war plans.
9 posted on Sunday, September 23, 2007 9:47:37 PM by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
update in 2021
There are some updated conversations regarding the sampan civilian navy internal migration approach.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3979585/posts
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Taiwan needs to send a delegation to Israel right now with a blank check and come home with nukes. Poland should do the same.
I think they will try to win through intimidation. If they can’t “hit the beaches” and invade, they can still blockade and mess up Taiwan (bombs, missiles) in a serious way. Is that what the Taiwanese people want? They know there is no savior (is Japan going to become the world’s policeman? Put together nukes for this?) The US isn’t coming, so China can pound Taiwan until Taiwan cries Uncle and agrees to become part of China. The boots on the ground come after that.
Between now and the end of the year. The Chinese will strike while the US is in disarray and is essentially without national leadership.
I don’t think they will successfully blockade Taiwan. Too many countries beside the US rely on those semiconductors.
I think it depends on how the talks between Taiwan and Japan go.
China shit bricks when Japan built their carriers supposedly for helicopters. Japan also has Burke class destroyers.
That’s a good point.
It used to be that www.predictit.org would have contracts you could bet on, either side, for this kind of stuff. They are rapidly going downhill.
Their predecessor, Intrade, went downhill rapidly after their CEO died climbing Mount Everest.
And not only Japan. Just since the demented one took office, other countries have come to realize how important Taiwan is to them.
The British have sent ships to the South China Sea.
The Germans announced they will send ships to the South China Sea.
Even the French are sending ships to the South China Sea.
The US may have a failed leader, but the world goes on. China doesn’t have a blank check just yet.
My understanding due to weather and ocean conditions like tides there are only 2 times of the year where an amphibious op is likely to occur against Taiwan, one in Spring the other in the Fall.
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