Posted on 08/21/2021 4:54:50 AM PDT by MtnClimber
What just happened in Afghanistan undermines Taiwan’s assumptions about its protection from and defenses against China.
There is a grave danger that the U.S. public will take away the wrong lessons from the Afghan debacle, both regarding Afghanistan and Taiwan. The media are now trumpeting that withdrawal was the right move but incompetently executed. Is that really true?
SNIP
The First Question is “How many nuclear silos has Taiwan?” The answer is “zero,” which means that China has no skin in the game. If an attempted invasion failed, China can simply pull back, regroup, and try again later. There is no Taiwanese offensive threat to China; hence, no deterrence.
The Second Question is “In the event of an invasion will the US fight for Taiwan?” The answer is clearly “no,” for two obvious reasons: (1) Xi has Hunter in his pocket, and therefore Joe under this thumb. (2) The U.S. military has war-gamed the battle and China wins devastatingly. The Afghan debacle reveals the American professional military leadership is either incompetent or corrupt, a daunting reality for the Taiwanese to face.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
I think Biden would side with China. He is in the Mickey Mao Club.
Taiwan was on borrowed time once Hong Kong was ‘liberated’ by China last summer, as the prospect of peaceful unification ended then. Now Taiwan is on FAR LESS borrowed time.
“The Afghanistan debacle holds a stark warning for Taiwan”
I wonder that since we have armed the Taliban to the teeth if they will not try to fulfill their promise of “Death to Israel”.
So the author is saying that a 2nd faithful implementation of the Biden Doctrine will lead to a Chinese takeover of Taiwan.
We and the free world (if there really is any freedom left) can’t wait till 24 no less 22. We have run out of time. There’ll only be a smoking ruin when these commies are through.
If Taiwan does not seek a Hong Kong deal for say fifteen years they are nuts. While Chicoms would suffer catastrophic losses, they would win within a month and Taiwan would be devastated. The only help America would offer is, maybe, ask Xi to allow some evacuations. But seeing Pretendent Biden’s dislike of East Asians, going back to his opposition to resetting t he Boat People, that ain’t gonna happen.
“The U.S. military has war-gamed the battle and China wins devastatingly.”
The question is WHICH battle we’ve wargamed. Could we stop a cross-straights invasion in a scenario limited to a static defense of the beaches? Probably not. Taiwan is too near to China and China can exert overwhelming local force.
But that’s not the only question. Will the Chinese navy still be floating a week after the commencement of hostilities? (Will the U.S. navy still be floating?) If the U.S. can maintain naval dominance, is China prepared to live with the closure of all of its ports? And the loss of all of its export markets?
If the naval war is inevitable, whose satellites will still be operational?
If China opens the conflict with a preemptive strike against U.S. naval forces and satellites, then from the get-go, the war is not just about Taiwan. It’s another Pearl Harbor.
Japan didn’t attack Pearl Harbor because it wanted a war with the United States. It attacked Pearl Harbor because it saw the U.S. Pacific fleet, with a major forward base in the Philippines, as a mortal threat to Japan’s projected conquest of the British, French and Dutch possessions in Indochina and the East Indies. Japan wanted to neutralize that threat by taking the Philippines. It attacked Pearl Harbor to forestall a U.S. response. But the goal all along was primarily the Dutch oil concessions in what is now Indonesia.
China can almost certainly take Taiwan. But does China want to live with the consequences? And would China launch a preemptive strategic strike to neutralize those consequences? Those are the questions.
Admiral Yamamoto, every American’s favorite Japanese commander of WWII, tried manfully to warn his government about awakening the sleeping giant.
What is the Chinese calculation about the U.S. response in the Biden administration? I imagine they are confident that Biden would soil his underwear and send someone on an apology tour. But China cannot be certain that Biden will be calling the shots. Nor can China be certain of the reaction of all the other Pacific Rim countries in Asia. India, Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea and Japan, if united, provide an invasion proof arc of secure bases to support a blockade and complete trade embargo. And most of those countries would quickly go nuclear.
This is why China’s saber rattling is worrisome. If China simply stepped back and liberalized cross-straights commerce and travel, Taiwan would become China’s Canada. A rational thinker would not regard that as a bad outcome. Is the Chinese regime so insecure that it cannot tolerate an offshore Canada?
Due to Obama allowing the Chinese to surpass us in hypersonic technology, we are still doing the R&D to catch up and putting in stop gap fillers until then.
However, do not underestimate our Virgina class attack subs playing havoc in a Chinese assault on Taiwan.
Of course, the fear is that China sees Biden as easy money and goes all in anyway.
You will have to show me where the Taliban have threatened, never mind PROMISED, "death to Israel".
The reflexive turning of Israel's enemies into OUR enemies has been very bad for the nation. I don't think it will continue.
Well said.
China’s military outnumbers any potential opponent, but it cannot outmber all of its neighbors and their allies combined.
Israel “secretly” has, what, 200 nuclear weapons?
If Taiwan didn’t secretly acquire such an ability years ago, they were foolish.
The USA is in the grip and control of an evil, malevolent, dishonest, powerful cabal whose objective is the destruction of America, and half the US electorate is too stupid to comprehend this.
The situation could not be more dangerous!
Note tagline.
Of course he would side with China. China owns him and is investing more in him all the time. I suspect that Hunter’s “art” is adorning the walls of many offices in Peking now.
“What just happened in Afghanistan undermines Taiwan’s assumptions about its protection from and defenses against China.”
Foreigners find it hard to comprehend how incompetent the US can be (at least they used to). The Afghan collapse demonstrates US incapacity and makes a Chinese takeover of Taiwan seem plausible. (It almost begs the question, “Why wouldn’t they move now?). Taiwan’s assumptions have to be that Biden and his handlers are agents of the PRC helping set the stage.
Let’s hope that TSMC gets its plants built here before the commies do their grab of Taiwan.
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