Posted on 07/17/2021 9:29:49 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Researchers in Sweden have challenged the interpretation that variable non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and “herd immunity” protection are responsible for the rise and fall of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic waves in hard-hit locations where authorities have not enforced strict NPIs.
Instead, they say that the herd immunity threshold appears to be much lower than previously thought.
However, the team’s study also indicates that these thresholds are unstable and cannot be considered indicative of protection against emerging variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) – the agent that causes COVID-19.
“Vaccination roll-out must continue with high participation,” says Marcus Carlsson from Lund University in Scania and Cecilia Soderberg-Naucler from the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm.
A pre-print version of the research paper is available on the medRxiv* server, while the article undergoes peer review.
In March 2020, mathematical models predicting the epidemiology of the COVID-19 outbreak had a significant impact on public policy.
For example, the imperial college report no. 9 predicted that 500,000 deaths would occur in the UK under the worst-case scenario, given that the government did not take any actions to mitigate the pandemic. This led to a shift in strategy towards curbing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and eventually a nationwide lock-down on March 23rd.
By contrast, the Swedish government kept society relatively open and only maintained limited but rather fixed NPIs throughout the pandemic.
This makes Sweden an excellent example for testing the validity of such mathematical models, say the researchers.
Carlsson and Soderberg-Naucler developed a mathematical model that took pre-immunity, antibody waning, and variants of concern into consideration.
This provided a theoretical framework for predicting SARS-CoV-2 cases in Stockholm without factoring in variable restrictions or vaccination roll-out.
Analysis of the time series of individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the Stockholm metropolitan area since September 1st, 2020, showed that two distinct epidemic waves followed the first wave that occurred in the Spring of 2020.
Before the second wave arose, the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was around 10%. This rose to 22.6% after the second wave, but before the third wave was initiated. By extrapolation, this gives a seroprevalence of about 33% at the end of May 2021, says the team.
When the third wave began to subside in late April, only about 5% of the population were fully vaccinated. The vaccine coverage was almost zero among those aged 0 to 69 years, with only hospital workers and people from other selected professions have been immunized.
Carlsson and Soderberg-Naucler say that these figures would lead most scientists to conclude that NPIs and voluntary behavioral changes made the second wave bend downwards in early November and that public weariness and/or mutant viral strains caused the third wave. They would also assume that the third wave bent downwards due to renewed public compliance with recommendations in the face of the recent surge, adds the team.
“Indeed, this is the by now accepted scientific consensus among scholars studying the pandemic, which is sometimes called ‘herd-protection,’ and builds on the simple idea that when a major deadly epidemic hits, society reacts in a way that is impossible to predict mathematically,” writes the team.
However, the pandemic response in Sweden challenges this interpretation with Carlsson and Soderberg-Naucler now presenting an alternative explanation for the pattern of viral spread.
The team says experts have previously proposed that “pre-immunity” or immunological “dark matter” could underlie the unexpected trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, failure to identify this dark matter together with various erroneous predictions involving pre-immunity led to the hypothesis being discarded.
“We believe that it is too early to discard the hypothesis that some sort of pre-immunity needs to be taken into account, in particular for accurate mathematical modeling,” said the researchers.
The team suggests that what looks like pre-immunity on a population level, could in fact be a consequence of large variability in individual-level susceptibility. Furthermore, this susceptibility may depend on innate immunity and cross-reactive protective immunity initiated by another virus or other factors.
Carlsson and Soderberg-Naucler have now shown that mathematical models considering variable susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 are equivalent to simpler models that incorporate pre-immunity.
“Pre-immunity is a necessity for successful mathematical modeling of the pandemic,” they say.
“We argue that this is the key factor that has protected Sweden from a much higher hospitalization rate and death toll, given the Swedish mitigation strategy, and that it helps to keep cases down to a much greater extent than predicted by traditional models for disease spread,” write the researchers.
However, “since cases can still go up if NPI’s are lifted, the term herd-immunity can be misleading… we call it herd-immunity under limited restrictions,” they add.
The team emphasizes that this study is not suggesting that it is safe to lift NPI’s, but rather it implies that around 60% of the community could have some level of protection against SARS-CoV-2 under current NPIs.
Such protection could disappear due to emerging mutations and exposure to higher viral doses following the lifting of restrictions, say the researchers.
Furthermore, it is impossible to know if pre-immunity is present or not, they write.
“Based on this, it is our firm conclusion that the vaccination roll-out must continue with high participation to avoid both personal tragedies and COVID-19 becoming endemic.”
medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.
islamophobia is the reason. < /s >
All manor of deception is to be used to get people to take the jab. The deception is organized.
guess it’s time to attack Sweden again!
just for the record.
spooky Reston-based Maximus, Inc - whose top investors are Blackrock, Vanguard etc (the same top investors in Big Tech and more), has been awarded multiple covid contracts, some via CDC, it seems:
Maximus, Inc: Covid-19 Response
Making a difference when it matters most
Almost from day one, we’ve been helping government respond swiftly and effectively to the COVID-19 pandemic — keeping essential services open and accessible to the public while prioritizing employee safety and wellbeing...
CDC-INFO line turns to Maximus for sudden surge
At the onset of COVID-19, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) requested additional agents to expand operations to 24/7 coverage...
Contact tracing makes an impact in multiple states
Contact tracing has never been attempted at the scale required for COVID-19. As the emerging leader in these services, Maximus is helping Indiana, Florida, and others augment their public health resources with home-based contact tracers and disease investigators. Since early May, we’ve hired, trained, and deployed more than 1,100 agents...
Outbound test result call center coordinates response...
Vaccine distribution support...ETC ETC
https://maximus.com/covid-19
A large discrepancy between actual and predicted infections/hospitalization/Deaths indicates that “The Science” is NOT.
80 yr old Fauxcy is a charlatan.
I just shake my head to all of this insanity. WTF is the end game?
“Based on this, it is our firm conclusion that the vaccination roll-out must continue with high participation to avoid both personal tragedies and COVID-19 becoming endemic.”
Of course it must.
“WTF is the end game?”
Preparing you for The Final Solution?
They lied about masks you can’t trust them on vaccines...
https://nextrushfree.blogspot.com/2021/07/nextrush-unplugged-weekend-how-can-you.html
Experts say...
End of discussion.
We are fighting the adaptability of the virus. These come from mutations. If these mutations are in the Spike Protein causing the antibodies developed by the vaccines to fail to attack them, we are in trouble. We will have to vaccinate for the new immunity or be infected by the mutant virus for new immunity. Yikes!
They ensrine liberty, reason and individualism.
Those are the greatest threats to global tocommunism.
Like worthless flu vaccines. Every year big pharma wants stupid people to keep ringing their cash register.
What a clown show.
Lucifer is dancing and celebrating his victory of destroying God’s humanity. That’s the end game. What he can’t destroy, he will transhumanize through genetic engineering so you will no longer be as God created you.
I think you have asked the true question, the endgame. Population control or population reduction?
-— I just shake my head to all of this insanity. WTF is the end game? -—
Control and obedience. This leads to money and power.
These two have a pretty good handle on what is going on:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/Lc6S7knUjFXU/
You must take the shot bc of “dark matter”... that we did not find nor have we yet.
Riiiiiiiight
The year of Soylent Green was 2022.
I just shake my head to all of this insanity. WTF is the end game?>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The World Wide Socialist Reset using totalitarian control introduced by Public Health Organizations.
In Canada Trudeau issued an executive fiat 9 order in council) that disarmed law abiding Canadians, you heard barely a whimper.
“Pre-immunity” is always a present possibility in varying degrees in everyone.
Not only does the total immune system retain readiness to produce or increase production of specific antibodies used to defend cells in the past, it is constantly employing that entire immune system army in the manner of testing them, and modifying them along the way.
Just because you never had a specific antibody to a specific pathogen in the past does not mean that your immune system is incapable of devising one when it employs its army of antibodies testing the intruder’s method of attack. In fact, if you have never had a particular bug before, but get an infection of it, what I just described is exactly what your immune system will do - try to make a set of antibodies specific for the type of attack that bug has made. MOST of the time your body succeeds and fends of the intruder and even if your system initially reacted badly you recover. When your illness becomes very serious, but you recover, most of the time what doctors have done is help your body survive the symptoms the bug produced, keeping your body strong enough to build up its antibodies until they finally succeed and you recover. In the end it is 99% of the time the fact that your immune system won the war - the doctors just kept the body strong enough to to that.
Your body encounters millions of microbes every day and there is no way for you or your body to know which ones it will or or will not encounter at any time. Your immune system MUST operate with the possibility of new encounters with totally new bugs, all the time, and still devise defenses against them. It is not strange at all that your body meets some new bug and in the process concocts some specific antibodies it never needed before. If the immune system could not do that the viral and bacterial world would have ended all mammalian development on earth long ago.
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