The damage done by probability blindness: We know far more about the coronavirus now than when it began, and what we know is very encouraging

American Thinker ^ | 06/17/2021 | Ron Ross

[SeekAndFind]

As Bishop Joseph Butler said in 1736, "probability is the very guide of life."

The coronavirus has generated more blind fear than perhaps any other event in recorded history. That fear is blind because it ignores easily calculated probabilities.

The reported coronavirus deaths in the U.S. now stand at six hundred thousand. The population of the U.S. is approximately 330 million. When you divide deaths by the population, the number is less than two tenths of one percent. As catastrophes go, that is a relatively small number.

There is a wide disparity of coronavirus deaths among age groups. That fact has been deliberately ignored by the authorities and the media.

Eighty percent of all deaths have occurred in the over 65 population even though that age group constitutes only 16 percent of the total population. The number of deaths in that group is 464 thousand. The total population of Americans 65 and older is 51 million. Dividing the deaths by that population gives you a probability of 0.0089, or nine tenths of one percent.

The number of COVID deaths in the 49 and younger age group is twenty-seven thousand. The total number of Americans in that age group is 233 million. Again, dividing the deaths by the corresponding population gives you a probability of 0.00011, or one one hundredth of one percent. A probability that small is often described as "not significantly different from zero."

Comparing the young and old age groups reveals that the 49 and younger age group's risk of COVID death is ninety times less than the 65 and older age group's.

There has been virtually no difference in policies in regard to various age groups. It has been the costliest application of a "one size fits all" approach ever.

[brookwood]

Dear Seek and Find,
At least the math in this article is correct. But there is a big problem with the approach - sure .2% of all Americans have died of Covid, I guess you think that’s fine, as long as it’s not you or your spouse or your father or your children. But you could make the same argument about cancer, it also kills 600,000 Americans a year. And probably only 10 or maximum 20 percent of Americans have gotten Covid yet (and since we are vaccinated we will never get it). But of the confirmed cases of Covid, about 1.5% have died. Ergo, if everyone in the US eventually gets Covid (and was not vaccinated) 5 million Americans will die. Just 10 times more than US deaths in the Second World War. About as many as died in the Holocaust. Other than that, thanks for the idiotic post.
By the way I still think you are a Chinese disinformation agent, just my opinion.

[edwinland]

Cigarette smoking kills more than 480,000 Americans each year.

Of course that statistic from the CDC is a flat out lie, but that's the party line, so it means that COVID is about as bad as smoking. For one year. https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/campaign/tips/resources/data/cigarette-smoking-in-united-states.html

[SeekAndFind]

RE: By the way I still think you are a Chinese disinformation agent, just my opinion.

Yes, you’ve said that before.

And I believe that you are a Russian disinformation agent, just my opinion. I don’t care what you think.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Other than that, thanks for the idiotic post.

Your argument is with the author. I never said I agreed with him. I post this to elicit responses whether you agree with it or disagree with it.

[Robert DeLong]

Can we say the same about the "vaccines"?

I personally do not think so.

[cymbeline]

“That fear is blind because it ignores easily calculated probabilities.”

The article is absolutely correct. What’s reported are individual cases or isolated statistics. That’s not a basis for conclusions on something affecting a population.

We know politicians and the media achieve their goals by stoking fear.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Can we say the same about the “vaccines”?

I don’t think you can. The vaccines arguably have prevented the spread of the virus. All these side effects are a very small percentage of those who have been vaccinated. They are concerning, but should not be compared to the huge risk of contracting the virus itself.

[Robert DeLong]

Where do you get your information that the "vaccines" have prevented the spread of the virus.? Many caught the virus anyway, and for some it was their 2nd time catching the virus. Tell your happy tale to the mother of a 19 year old who died when she got the 2nd shot, that she was excited to get, which caused her to have heart issues and died.

What should be compared are the adverse affects from these "vaccines" to other vaccines. There have been more adverse affects to these "vaccines" than all of the vaccines combined since vaccines were developed.

[rightwingcrazy]

The numbers are useful for making decisions as an individual, for myself and my family. How likely is it that I or they will die of Covid in the next 18 months, with or without a vaccination, with or without masking, etc.

Comparing Covid deaths to American WWII deaths is not useful. Roughly *70 million* people died in the world last year of *something*. Was that a holocaust because the number is so huge? Or if not, is Covid ignorable because the number of deaths it caused is small, compared to that number?

What’s more relevant, since I want to make rational decisions for myself, is the likelihood that something bad will happen to me, what I can do about it, and how much better off I will be if I do it.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Where do you get your information that the “vaccines” have prevented the spread of the virus.?

I am not saying that the vaccines are 100% effective. Even Pfizer, supposedly the most effective, gives a 5% chance of you still catching the virus. For every 100,000 to take the shot, there could be 5,000 still infected.

Remember — the title of this thread is about PROBABLITIES.

There will be tragic cases like the 19 year old you mentioned, but there will be far, far more people who are protected by the vaccines.

BTW, this is not to say that we might not have LONG TERM effects of those who have been vaccinated. It’s still too early to tell.

Such is life. There are no absolute certainties, only risk calculations we must all make.

[mewzilla]

It wasn’t blindness.

It was a LIE.

[1Old Pro]

Not to worry, I’m sure Biden’s friend XI is going to let American scientists see all the records they destroyed and no longer exist.

[Sequoyah101]

Yup, the odds are on your side ‘cept it is a new threat added on top of all the other threats. Can’t do a thing about that.

I was made the butt of jokes because I said that the vaccine appears to me as just another risk added on top of the risk of contracting the virus. I base that on the various reports on risk of the vaccine.

I do not see any point in self-electing to add a 100% probability of adding to my risks without concomitant benefit, and there is not such.

What is more, treatment for covid is improving and much better than it was when this mess began. Respirators in landfills anyone?

I’ll take my risks with the virus. No jab for me.

[Robert DeLong]

Even Pfizer, supposedly the most effective, gives a 5% chance of you still catching the virus.

Are they really effective, or have the majority of those who have been vaccinated just not come in close-contact with the virus? For all you or I know, they are ticking time-bombs who will come down with other ailments that they probably would not have developed had they not taken the jab? The virus itself was not killing off but a small fraction of the population, about 2/3 of 1 percent of the population. And that number depends on if the death count is even accurate. Many suggest the count is greatly exaggerated. We even hear about counties, as well as, the CDC adjusting numbers, downward.

There will be tragic cases like the 19 year old you mentioned, but there will be far, far more people who are protected by the vaccines.

Yeah already happening. The CDC already admits to 5,00 deaths in the VAERS database, which experts estimate that the real figure could be 10 times greater as the VAERS database only contains about 10% of the adverse reactions that have occurred. Some are ignored, and many more go unreported, even though they are supposed to be reported.

So I ask again, where are you getting your information? From the government? Yeah, that's a trusted source anymore, Fauci is but the tip of an iceberg. I get mine from doctors and immunologists who have been examining these "vaccines", and at great risk are willing to stand up and tell the truth.

Here is but one example. There are many more, but I would have to look for them if you desire more:

Reiner Fuellmich with Dr. Peter McCullough. Corona Committee - Global Bioterrorism

[old-ager]

> probability blindness

Nice to have a fancy new term for “no common sense.”

[SeekAndFind]

Ok, here’s the thing... I live in New York state, arguably one of the most restrictive state in terms of opening up in the USA.

But even here, we will be opening up fully on July 4 and our sports arenas have been packed for two weeks. Restaurants have been opened for dine in, mask mandates lifted and places of worship opened.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo ( I’m no fan of his ) attributes this to the fact that new infections are dwindling to a trickle and nearly 70% of New Yorkers have been vaccinated.

If we can’t attribute this happy event to vaccinations, on what major factor do we attribute this to?

[Robert DeLong]

Well, I understands your predicament, however, that still is not excuse to promote the "vaccines".

That is why President Trump made them available, but demanded that they be released only with the designation under Emergency Use Authorization, so that they could not be mandated, because he knew that the government, nor the big Pharma organizations could not be trusted. He knew that without them some states would remain locked down for many years to come.

Again, I do not mind celebrating somewhat of a freedom status once again, but do so without celebrating the vaccines themselves. Because we do not know what these "vaccines" will do down the road to people who have taken them.

Some scientists have even sounded alarms that these "vaccines" may be shedding. That the jab is jumping from people who got the "vaccine" into people who did not get the "vaccine". Trust me, this push to get people vaccinated is not because they are really concerned about the health of their citizens, so what is the real reason? We already know that Bill Gates is for population reduction. Are these "vaccines" the method to achieve that goal? Who knows.

[oldtech]

Something is very controversial about your statement on covid.....
“(and since we are vaccinated we will never get it)”. I have seen many statements that are quite the opposite of that. I’ve had the covid, had both shots so thought I should be safe, but some of what I’ve read says otherwise. I honestly don’t know, but I think we are a long way from knowing all there is to know about this situation. I am a senior, so I should imagine another bout with the covid would be the end of me.