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Posted on 05/19/2021 6:21:26 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA
Here's an early analysis of yesterday's election results in Pennsylvania. Please feel free to chime in. The vote totals come from the Department of State website, approximately 8 am this morning. The purpose of the analysis to determine Republican-Democratic trends in the Commonwealth. Examined are the ballot questions, judicial primaries and county returns.
The most important ballot questions in PA are to limit the governor's powers through constitution amendment in regards to emergency management declaration and extension. These were questions one and two on the ballot. Questions 3 and 4 were less important and are not part of this analysis other than to say they succeeded by wide margins, even though those results are contrary to conservative principles.
It appears the governor's powers have been limited through questions one and two. That is given the PA Department of State vote counts this morning at 8:00 am. The DOS web site does not provide percentage of precincts reporting. Here are the state wide results for questions one and two:
PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT 1 TERMINATION OR EXTENSION OF DISASTER EMERGENCY DECLARATION - 53.61% Yes - 46.39% No
PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT 2 DISASTER EMERGENCY DECLARATION AND MANAGEMENT - 53.58% Yes - 46.42% No
Another top down election indicator is the Justice of the Supreme Court primary. Here we can look at state-wide voter turn out on party lines. Unaffiliated voters were allowed to vote on the ballot questions, but only Republicans and Democrats could vote in the primaries. In the supreme court justice primary, the Democrat candidate ran unopposed, while there were three Republican candidates. I will total the Republican votes to provide an idea of party line turnout. The Democratic candidate received 784,006 (47.86%) votes and the total of Republican candidates was 854,242 (52.14%). Since, there were not multiple Democratic candidates it could be said that Democratic turn out was low since there was not a need to vote in this primary. However, there were multiple Democratic candidates in the state-wide Superior Court Judge primary.
Here are the totals for the Superior Court Primary. All Democratic candidates: 832,283 (51.47%). One Republican candidate: 776,132 (48.53%). I cannot explain why fewer Republicans voted for Superior Court Judge than for Supreme Court Justices, nor why more Democrats voted for Superior Court Judges other than to say when there were multiple candidates in a race, there were more votes. If we use the Supreme Court (Republican) and Superior Court (Democratic) races we can get an idea of voter turn out by party.
Republican: 854,242 (50.65%)
Democrat: 832,283 (49.35%)
Now for a county analysis. We'll use the constitutional amendment questions as a gauge for Republican vs. Democratic success. The vast majority of PA counties voted for the constitutional amendment questions. This is to be expected and is typical of PA. Democrats had success in Allegheny, Bucks, Centre, Delaware, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton, and Philadelphia counties. That is nine of 67 counties. No western counties voted against the constitutional amendment questions other than Allegheny (Pittsburgh). Erie is still red. In Central PA, Dauphin County voted for the constitutional amendment questions. Dauphin Country was carried by Biden in 2020. Centre County is a disappointment, given that school (Penn State) is not in session as Centre County, normally a red country, voted against the questions. But what can you expect from a bunch of leftist academic types. The usual suspects in the Philadelphia area strongly blue. One bright note is the Chester County did not go along with the rest of SE counties. Lackawanna County in the north east is back to their hard-cord Democratic ways even though Lackawanna country is surrounded by all red counties.
The bottom line analysis from the constitutional amendment questions show that the battle ground counties in PA remain the same. Approximately seven to ten of 67 counties provide the vast majority of Democratic votes in PA. Given a fair and fraud-free election, it more than likely the next Presidential election will have the same battle lines. The only way PA will go Republican is if there is excellent turn out in traditionally red counties while winning a couple of the borderline counties such as Dauphin, Lehigh and Northampton.
A useful analysis. Thanks for that. Do we have any data on turnout in Blue vs Red areas? The important thing for next year is that Republicans keep their traditional midterm turnout advantage.
Pennsylvania Ping!
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Congratulations Pennsylvania. It appears you have defeated the tyrant and his silly agenda. May 49 other states follow your lead.
Emergency powers are important, for stuff like forest fires and hurricanes. An emergency doesn’t last for a year and a half.
I guess since #1 and #2 passed the House and Senate have some power again and over ride these BS emergency powers. When does this go into effect? I guess the only mandate left is the “mask” mandate which probably going to be gone by June sometime. However, it’s good to know if Wolf or whomever wants to pull this BS they’ll think twice and now be held accountable.
While I am pleased with the amendments, it was the legislature that originally gave the governor such powers. It is good that the legislature is reclaiming its powers. Now they need to do that same with election laws. The Secretary of State needs to be stripped of all powers pertaining to elections. A full audit of the 2020 election is required.
You could go to the DOS website and click on the county map to get more detailed data. It's not in tabular form and it would have taken me forever to put it into a format for a post. The general county results that I provided will lead you to the same place though, just without percentages and totals.
In many states the situation is similar. What Republicans can do is make their state's electoral votes proportional, like Maine and Nebraska. Then the large cities would not control the whole state's electoral votes, like NYC controls New York, Philadelphia controls Pennsylvania, and Chicago controls Illinois.
With proportional electoral votes, a Republican Presidential candidate would even get a respectable number of electoral votes from California.
I drove thru Transylvania in early Jan to get to DC. Nice state.
Here at my place of employment, a lot of my GOP colleagues refused to vote this time. They are still disgusted at the GOP for failing to fight the election fraud. So one can say that the Republican turnout was a bit suppressed from usual primaries.
I certainly wasn't motivated. I just went through the motions.
A lot of thought into this. Thank you.
I notice that the “national press masses” are ignoring these results - they clearly “do not reflect what the democrat party seeks to reveal” ....
Mark McCloskey for Senate in Missouri
Please help pass this around and post online even if you don’t live in Missouri.
https://www.instagram.com/tv/CPCTVhLFgw7/?utm_medium=share_sheet
I was minority inspector at a polling location not my own yesterday. This township used to be wholly owned by the republican party but a large influx of Jews and blacks from Philadelphia over the years turned it into a 65/35 split Dem/Rep. Still, turnout was about 50/50, so the ballot questions obviously encouraged R turnout. We did get many flyers whose only message was Vote Yes.
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