Posted on 05/17/2021 6:24:50 AM PDT by bert
What will be the results of a Pelosi/Biden government?
Many think there will be inflation. Milton Friedman taught us that “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it cannot occur without a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” The $2Trillion Covid relief plus the !5% minimum wage plus the forgiveness of college loans all pump money into the economy.
Those actions are the very definition of monetary phenomena.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis keeps us informed on the inflation rate but fails in one respect. The inflation information provided leaves out food. So, in the era of Pelosi/Biden induced inflation, bert has developed a basket of 20 common food products and will track prices and compute the inflation rate on the basket total and each individual item at a one month interval.
The reason given for excluding food in the BEA inflation figure is because there are so many variables that effect prices that monetary inflation gets lost in the shuffle. So, there will be no attempt to correct for other variables.
One we know that is already happening is China. China is in terrible food shape. Crop failure, massive flooding, swine disease and poor management of stock piles have forced China to import phenomenally large quantities of soy beans and corn. Brazil is sold out of soy beans. American farmers will pick up all he slack. So, there will be a large China induced food price inflation.
Being bert and being conservative, I choose to ignore China and blame all the food price increases on Pelosi/Biden
The first monthly food inflation presentation is posted below. There is no inflation noted for February
Will it happen? As President Trump was fond of saying……..We’ll see
| Item Cost | Measure | January | May | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bread | 2# Loaf | $1.69 | $1.69 | 0 |
| Eggs | 1 dozen | $$1.99 | $1.99 | 0% |
| Bacon | 12 ounces | $4.99 | $4.99 | 0% |
| Ground Round | 1 pound pkg | $4.19 | $4.19 | 0% |
| Hot Dogs Oscar Mayer | 10 count | $2.99 | $2.99 | 0% |
| Zesta Saltine Crackers | 1 Box | $1.49 | $1.99 | 33% |
| Cambell’s Tomato Soup | Can | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Le Suer Green Peas | Can | $1.89 | $1.89 | 0% |
| Campbell’s Pork and Beans | Can | $0.69 | $0.69 | 0% |
| Kellogg’s Frosted Flakes | 13.5 oz Box | $2.99 | $2.99/td> | 0% |
| Pic Sweet Frozen Corn | 28 Oz | $3.29 | $3.29 | 0% |
| Holly Farms Chicken Breast | Per Pound | $1.99 | $1.99 | 0% |
| New York Select Strip | per pound | $11.99 | $12.99 | 8% |
| Milk 2% | per Gallon | $1.99 | $1.99 | 0% |
| Water | 6 pack | $3.99 | $3.99 | 0% |
| Maxwell House Coffee | 11.5 Oz | $3.99 | $3.99 | 0% |
| Coca Cola | 12- 12 Oz | $5.99 | $5.99 | 0% |
| Budweiser Beer | 6 pack 12 Oz | $7.29 | $7.29 | 0% |
| McDonalds Big Mac | Each | $4.29 | $4.59 | 7% |
| Basket Total | $73.99 | |||
| Percent Increase | 1% |
The various grocery items are those in common usage. Both National and Store brands are represented. Prices are taken from the local grocery store website and are current on the fifteenth of the current month.
The 1.0% increase is inflation and other variables
Although there are various articles reporting inflation in the economy, the Food City index remains fairly constant with essentially no increase in the four months the prices have been recorded
Of possible interest is the price of the Big Mac that has increased 7% over the period. The Big Mac is a composite of the food groups and the costs of production. The Big Mac increase may be presciently predicting what is to come.
Food prices will go up due to the rising price of diesel.
Coming soon.
Many of us shop the sales and loss leaders (e.g. boneless chicken breast $1.59/pound). THOSE deals are starting to go away, or the quality/quantity is changing.
People still buy Maxwell House coffee? How about some Breck shampoo and some Gleem toothpaste?
I do all the shopping, this list is Horse Shiffffff
And Tab soda.
Will Foridians be filling their trunks with plastic bags full of soybeans?
Well, well..... now that is very interesting
I’m not familiar with the Broad Money index that is rising at a greater rate.
Not seeing the logic.
One brand of cheap crackers jumped 1/3rd.
Higher-end beef, a variable-price commodity, increased a bit.
Flagship fast food went up a bit, likely from anomaly of temporary unemployment benefits competing with actually working.
Everything else remained the same.
Clickbait title.
“Many of us shop the sales and loss leaders (e.g. boneless chicken breast $1.59/pound). THOSE deals are starting to go away, or the quality/quantity is changing.”
That’s how I shop. I buy nothing that isn’t on sale, unless it’s something I really need. I’m seeing small increases in sale prices, but every once in a while there are deals that harken back to the good old days (like whole pork butt for $.97/lb)
And then you have a chain like Burger King that starts selling bacon cheeseburgers for $1 (it’s kind of strange how cheeseburgers now cost more than bacon cheeseburgers).
Milk is up. Four or 5 years ago I was getting gallons of milk for $1.39 at Kroger.
And, as always, a lot of it will depend on supply and demand, especially with proteins and ag products.
Thanks for doing this ol’ pal, ol’ buddy. I’m looking forward to your future reports. And if you plan on starting a ping list, please add me to it.
😂
1% inflation is nothing compared to what will happen when China calls in all the loans they have made to our government. We will be burning dollars for fuel. The Weimar Republic part II.
Who leaves FOOD out of inflation calculations? Total weasels.
The last four years has seen huge increases in food prices. Some here say that was normal price increase but I think it’s been huge.
Milk in my area is 4.60 a gallon. Florida always had expensive milk. My sister in Indiana gets a gallon of milk for under a buck. Too bad she can’t send me some. Lol.
Oh stop. We owe China 1 trillion dollars. If they ever want it back we’ll just borrow it from the citizens. United States owes its citizens 18 trillion. What’s 19 trillion in the big picture.
I observe and present a finding
It is what it is
Prices have gone up from pre-covid to today.
Pre-covid, I could get pork loin as low as $1-something/lb. Today, the cheapest from the Walmart site is double at $3.66/lb.
A beef chuck roast used to be about $3.50/lb. Today’s Walmart price is $6.47/lb.
A 10 lb. tube of 72% ground beef used to be $18.87 but today it’s $22.47.
I’ve not seen any meat going on sale since covid.
I’ve also noticed the family size or even regular sized packages aren’t being stocked so I have to pay more for the smaller sizes. Example - can’t get yeast in a jar so have to buy the single portion 3 packet size at a higher price.
We still have limits on many items and items are always out of stock so that increases the price when you have to make extra trips to the store to get what you want. Example - still can’t get Lysol or Clorox brand anything at the grocery store so have to buy it at a much higher price at the hardware store.
And why the heck is Walmart only stocking vanilla Blue Bell ice cream? Pre-covid they stocked a dozen flavors.
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