GW, I am trying to keep it as little complex as possible.
Point # 1 : How many of the 500,000 American who have died WITH covid so far were vaccinated? My guess is close to zero.
Point # 2 : A gargantuan sample of 55 Million+ Americans have now been vaccinated. All I want to know is how many of them have died from covid after getting the vaccine or from the vaccine itself.
If that number is insignificantly small, the vaccine would be considered good news so far.
There is no point in getting in the mud wondering about long term effects of vaccine. It is a new type of vaccine, and pontificating it’s long term is just conjecture. No one knows! There is no history to extrapolate here.
That kinda changes the numbers on your question.