Posted on 02/18/2021 4:17:43 PM PST by DUMBGRUNT
Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.
In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
...Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.
...But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.
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(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
That too, good point.
And by April, it will probably be even more dramatic. That’s all I’m saying
Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.
You’re correct: this is the end of the third major wave in the US. That’s it. It’s not (yet) the vaccines and it’s not herd immunity. I’ve been hearing “we’re at herd immunity!” since May of last year. It wasn’t right then. It isn’t right now.
At the current trend rate and baseline numbers for infections and vaccinations, we should reach the Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) sometime in July of this year. After that, expect a slow, but fairly consistent decline in cases and deaths. There will be no new waves after that; just minor outbreaks here and there.
We're seeing the end of the holiday wave. It follows the exact same bell curve the previous two waves did in the US, and the exact same curve every other wave in every other country and region on Earth has since the start. This is epidemiology 101.
We should reach herd immunity around July. There will still be new cases in July and August, but the rate will slow consistently as new cases dwindle toward zero. This is a function of Rt.
Your hobby is non sequiturs.
We're seeing the end of the holiday wave.
Fauci's holiday wave? You believe that? Document that with real data. Holiday gatherings were small this year. People who actually go out to work were probably exposed to more people at work than they were at home, during the holidays.
New cases actually dipped during the holidays for several reasons. And the number of new cases after the holidays then went back to a level that follows the same slope of the curve that was seen before the holidays.
It follows the exact same bell curve the previous two waves did in the US, and the exact same curve every other wave in every other country and region on Earth has since the start. This is epidemiology 101.
Citing the bell curve actually doesn't explain the reason why. You would actually have to cite the reason why something follows the bell curve.
Student: Because of the bell curve.
LOL!
We should reach herd immunity around July. There will still be new cases in July and August, but the rate will slow consistently as new cases dwindle toward zero. This is a function of Rt.
Between the number of people who get vaccinated, the number of identified cases and the estimated number of unreported infections, Dr. Marty Makary — a surgeon and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health thinks that we will have herd immunity by April.
He makes the case well and I agree with him.
Well, you’re both wrong. In April, feel free to come back to this thread and tell me otherwise, but you won’t be coming back here because cases will have plateaued or risen slightly instead of dropping steadily.
I’ve been hearing that we’re almost at herd immunity since May 2020. It was wrong then. It’s wrong now. You’re free to believe whatever you like, but it isn’t correct and the reality will set in soon enough.
None of it will matter when we actually reach the herd immunity threshold around July. Either way, it’s all over and done this year. And nobody is going to tolerate the restrictions when it’s clear from the data that this thing is over.
Add to the list the three epidemiologists who were on Laura Ingraham tonight. So there are five of us vs. you and Fauci.
I’ve been hearing that we’re almost at herd immunity since May 2020.
Just because people got it wrong in May 2020, it doesn't logically follow that my call of April 2021 is incorrect and that your call of July 2021 is correct.
In April, feel free to come back to this thread and tell me otherwise, but you won’t be coming back here because cases will have plateaued or risen slightly instead of dropping steadily.
Please ping me here in April.
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