Posted on 01/27/2021 8:05:36 AM PST by Capt. Tom
Are you thinking about that cruise in the Caribbean this spring or summer? According to financial analysts at Truist Financial, this is unlikely to happen.
Due to the slower-than-expected US roll-out of Covid vaccines, a surge in cases, and a demanding conditional order from the Centers for Disease and Prevention to restart sailings, any cruises departing from the US could be pushed back to July or even later.
The Second Half of 2021 Under The Best of Circumstances That’s what Patrick Scholes, a Wall Street financial analyst at Truist Finacial, thinks is the earliest date we could potentially see cruises leaving from the US, according to Barrons.
While the forecasts were optimistic throughout the end of 2020, various reasons are causing projections to move towards the second part of 2021 at best. Scholes said:
“The sentiment for 2021 has now changed to It’s possible 2021 will not be a return to (revenue) sailings in North America.” He added: ”While cruise bookings are exceeding cancellations, we now see July as the best-case scenario for a restart, though the fourth quarter is more likely.”
This scenario can hardly be called a surprise anymore. The sharp rise of COVID-19 cases, delayed vaccine distribution, and the CDC, which has not provided the cruise lines with follow-up on the conditional order, is causing cruise lines to be cautious at best with scheduling.
Cruise Vaccine Is May Optimistic?
The three largest cruise operators have all canceled their voyages until May 2021. Royal Caribbean does have one vessel sailing in Singapore, yet cruises in Europe have almost entirely come to a standstill with only a handful of ships sailing. Is a cruise from the US on May 1 optimistic? It certainly seems so.
The CDC has authorized a phased-in return to sailing, yet with the preparations, the cruise line will need to do before they are allowed to sail, July indeed seems like the best possible scenario.
These include test cruises, 100% testing, and likely vaccinations for all crew members, while there is a large amount of uncertainty whether cruise lines or even the CDC will require guest vaccinations as well.
Not only that, the cruise lines will need to implement a large amount of onboard and shoreside procedures on which crew members will need to be trained fully. According to Scholes, the CDC’s guidelines might prove insurmountable:
“As we noted previously, there is concern amongst travel executives who believe that the recent CDC phased return to cruise is really a de facto no-sail order, the concern is that the CDC’s hurdles are so high that it will make it extremely difficult for the cruise lines to sail with paid customers.”
Will Cruise Lines Survive Financially?
Whether cruise lines will be able to survive financially is one that has been on the mind of many. It has been more than 12 months for many ships since they’ve last set sail with guests; by July, this will be the majority of cruise ships worldwide.
While bookings numbers have been mostly positive and, in some cases, even exceeding historical numbers, the question is how far cruise lines can stretch their cash. According to CEO Arnold Donald, postponements until July will not be a problem for Carnival Corporation, and likely neither for other major cruise companies like Norwegian, MSC, and Royal Caribbean.
Whether or not the financial analysts are right or wrong, what is certain is that the long wait is not over yet. Many hurdles will need to be taken before a return of cruising can be expected.
The wait is now for the roll-out of vaccines, not only in the United States but worldwide, and the CDC’s expectations to become clear. When this is happening is anyone’s guess right now.
Time makes all things clear. Stay tuned.-Tom
Hang in there Freepers, I know we have plenty of other things to be concerned with ,but watching a slow motion train wreck is fascinating. -Tom
At this rate, cruise lines will open their doors to people who can prove vaccination.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship tells us a lot about this China virus… 3,711 passengers and crew were quarantined in Japan together in tight quarters with the virus present for a month.. : only 712 cases / 699 recovered.. (most with no symptoms ?) .. All 3,711 were tested ..
13 people died… a largely elderly population likely with pre-existing health issues...
Mortality rate for all in the U.S. population would likely be less...
https://virusncov.com/covid-statistics/diamond-princess
george76 wrote: “The Diamond Princess cruise ship tells us a lot about this China virus… 3,711 passengers and crew were quarantined in Japan together in tight quarters with the virus present for a month.. : only 712 cases / 699 recovered.. (most with no symptoms ?) .. All 3,711 were tested ..”
Actually, that tells us very little about the virus and much more about public perception. The perception is that no risk is too small to ignore. A major element of the public progressive politicians will only be satisfied with 100% no-risk. They will put up with onerous protocols because ‘if it saves one life it’s worth it’.
Alaska in 2022 or Bust!!!
(before Uncle Joe sells it back to Russia for a few rubles to help pay for the New Green Deal.)
Alaska in 2022 or Bust!!!
(before Uncle Joe sells it back to Russia for a few rubles to help pay for the New Green Deal.)
That sounds a little like cheery cruise line propaganda, 2022.
What happened to Alaska in 2021? -Tom
“At this rate, cruise lines will open their doors to people who can prove vaccination.”
And the longer it takes, more USA ports will be in economic difficulties also. See Below.-Tom
https://www.cruisehive.com/huge-losses-expected-for-major-florida-cruise-port/46396
Good luck getting the vaccine. Local providers do not take appointments until they have received a supply of vaccines. 10 minutes later the appointment book is all filled up. I will be lucky to get the vaccine by June-July.
I think that's about right. And, I'm in the 65 to 75 year cohort. Maybe... May.
I got you beat pardner. LOL... Turning 81 in a few weeks.
But I really do believe keeping lungs in top shape is the best defense against any respiratory virus such as covid-19. So I am doing 6 days every week treadmill fast walk.
Besides I am now 99% certain both me and wife got the infection during Carnival cruise ending on Feb 29th 2020. Both had minor symptoms after disembarkation for a few days. That is better than vaccine to build future immunity. I have visited various stores 75+ times since last February. There must be a few covid-19 cells floating in Walmart and Lowe’s and Aldi’s. But not even minor symptoms so far, knock on wood. I must be reinforcing immunity continuously with mild exposures hahaha.
I wasn’t bragging about my age... just guessing where I’d fall in the distribution time line, since I’m not at the very top (over 75 or essential or a prisoner), ha.
2021 is a goner. only 7 days cruises available, have to board in Vancouver which means flying or driving there, just saw that Princess in 2022 will be the next opportunity to sail out under the Golden Gate to Alaska and back on a 10 day..
As for propaganda, they can’t seem to run enough cruise commercials around here. Except for Carnival. No loss there.
“2021 is a goner. only 7 days cruises available, have to board in Vancouver which means flying or driving there, just saw that Princess in 2022 will be the next opportunity to sail out under the Golden Gate to Alaska and back on a 10 day..”
Every day now signs of a longer delay to restart cruises in 2021 seem to pop up.
Below is the latest as Norwegian faces up to it.
https://www.cruisehive.com/norwegian-cruise-line-makes-difficult-decision-on-crew-members/46409
13 Changes To Cruising Due To The Pandemic That Will Be Permanent..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riqU_5G2OnY
IMHO this film was like a CDC presentation and would further cripple the Cruise lines through 2021; unless changes were made.-Tom
You are right. I will bet more people die during a cruise due to other causes than covid-19.
But I have a feeling covid-19 will stop being the boogeyman in 3 or 4 months. The media can not possibly keep the morbid fear of covid for healthy people continue much longer. They must make Biden regime look good.
I know you were not bragging...it was me bragging about my age and all the activities I am doing without any health issues. Daily exercise for 25-30 minutes works better for me than any medicine, any foods or any nutritional supplements.
Capt. Tom. Have you seen this on Cruise Critic detailing the results of their survey on how cruisers react to protocols while cruising.
“Among the new procedures that a majority of respondents wanted to see when returning to the ship: mandatory hand sanitization (74 percent); temperature checks (69 percent); mandatory mask wearing (69 percent); and rapid COVID-19 testing (56 percent). Respondents were allowed to mark off more than one choice.”
There are also a few threads on Cruise Critic discussing these restrictions.
https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5586/
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