Flubros and Flubras! Day 305 (a place for Flubros and Flubras)

Cases are dropping. I don’t know what this means. I don’t see the rhetoric from lefties changing. But it might embolden a brave GOP Governor from following the lead of Desantis’ in Florida and end a lockdown.

Democrats are in a tough situation. They really want to control our lives and they also want to be seen as rescuing people from the Coronavirus. The only thing I can think of so they get the best of both worlds is for them to say they saved us from the Coronavirus, but mandates and lockdowns must remain in order to keep us safe.

It’s just the flu, bro.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

:: Cases are dropping. I don’t know what this means. I don’t see the rhetoric from lefties changing. ::

Boris Johnson announced that the CDC announced that the new British strain of the virus (”B.1.1.7”, I think) is more contagious and 30% more deadly to those who contract it.

My comment?
Members of the CDC will be travelling from GBR to the U.S. soon to deliver “this news”.
You figure it out.

"Cases are dropping. I don’t know what this means."

It means that in the areas where there have recently been heavy outbreaks, that outbreak cycle is easing. It's likely we'll see some regional flair-ups here and there, but as the vaccines continue to roll out, those outbreaks will become fewer and further between, ultimately dwindling to nothing.

gas_dr and I did some math on another thread based on number of persons likely currently or formerly infected, rate of new infections, and rate of vaccination and both came to the conclusion that this thing is likely over and done with some time around July. After that, it's going to be a real challenge for the Democrats to peddle much fear around it. If a new variant emerged that was actually resistant to the vaccines, a minor tweak to the mRNA vaccines the same way they do with the flu each year would end it fast anyway.

You already have governors pushing for schools to reopen and acting all surprised when the teachers and parents are terrified at the notion thanks to all the fearmongering those same governors did all last year. But the schools will reopen everywhere soon. As vaccinations rise and we really do reach the Herd Immunity Threshold, the fear will be gone. Anyone who gets vaccinated will quickly start complaining about having to follow any disease control measures; even those who were pretty compliant previously.

I think we see a return to normal daily life as early as late May or June, but no later than end of August.

as_dr and I did some math on another thread based on number of persons likely currently or formerly infected, rate of new infections, and rate of vaccination and both came to the conclusion that this thing is likely over and done with some time around July. After that, it's going to be a real challenge for the Democrats to peddle much fear around it. If a new variant emerged that was actually resistant to the vaccines, a minor tweak to the mRNA vaccines the same way they do with the flu each year would end it fast anyway.

I saw a similar projection at a luncheon earlier this week with pretty much the same conclusion, although the presenter emphasized that June/July is the end of the decline. Per his math (which is consistent with other models, including I think the IHME model), we have probably passed the herd immunity threshold and are are in the beginning of that decline today, and by June the pandemic as a major public health phenomenon in America will have been over for months.

I think we see a return to normal daily life as early as late May or June, but no later than end of August.

Unfortunately, that's a political question, not a scientific one. It is hard to see how there will be any legitimate justification for business shutdowns, social distancing mandates, mask mandates, or other government-mandated "non-pharmaceutical interventions" by April (if they are even warranted today). But, of course, public fear and the appetite among politicians and the media for feeding that fear will keep the disruption around much longer.

"we have probably passed the herd immunity threshold"

Not a chance on that. I've been hearing that (on this very thread no less) since May of last year. I've been saying it's definitely wrong since then. If you look back at my posts, I've been extremely consistent about where we are, where we're tracking, and how this comes to an end. I was also right about us having 2 safe and effective vaccines approved and in use by the end of 2020 (I said 2-5, not realizing Oxford/AstraZeneca had screwed up their trials so royally).

New Jersey is the most infected state in the country, largely owing to its proximity to New York and its utterly disgusting population density. I have them at roughly 38% of the population who have been or currently are infected. With the April/May variant (which was actually the second one), R0 was ~2.5. The new variants are still being evaluated, but the literature thus far has their R0 somewhere in the range of 4.3-5.7. The Herd Immunity Threshold is 1-1/R0, placing the HIT at ~77-82%. That puts New Jersey just under halfway there. Nationally, we're about 20% who have been or currently are infected, which gets us ~25% to where we need to be to reach the HIT. Around 25 million doses of vaccines have been given to people in the US so far, but most of those are first doses and some will have gone to people already infected (I know).

Regardless of that, I think the rate of infection combined with the rate of vaccination puts us on track to end major outbreaks by the end of July and I think by the end of this year finding a handful of cases somewhere will make some headlines because of how unusual it will be at that point.

"public fear and the appetite among politicians and the media for feeding that fear will keep the disruption around much longer."

Funny thing about fear and stress is that people eventually become numb to it; particularly if you give them any reason to be even slightly less afraid. Once vaccinated, people are going to have no fear. They'll hear 95% and that'll be the end of it. Once enough people get vaccinated and the case numbers stop jumping up and down, the fear will be gone and people will be very much done with masks and restrictions. I don't think there's anything the Democrats or the media can say or do keep the restrictions in place at that point. They risk a massive backlash from all the fence-sitters in the middle.

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