Posted on 01/23/2021 8:59:52 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
Places with highest daily reported cases per capita
Seven-day average of daily new reported cases per 100,000 residents
Well, it’s a weekend again, so let’s hope the big drop is real.
Per Washington State Covid Study, admissions to hospital and cases are down over 10%. Looking at the graphs, we are on the downside of this current surge. Wonder if it is the last one now that is has gone through the midwest. With vaccination and theory that we are recording 1/8 cases by test, if there are 200,000 cases in a day, that means 1.6 million per day. We have been over 100,00 for 90 days. quick math reveals roughly 1M infections a day if we are to accept the stat that we are only getting 1/8 of the cases recoded. thats 90M cases in this surge. Added to the rest of the cases, that means 200M cases + which is 66%.
As per Fauci (I know he is a turd), this would indicate we are awfully close to herd. Vaccination should push us over — pandemics run between 18 and 24 months. The stars are aligning would suggest that this should be over by July.
The first cases were in Washington State around this time last year. So that makes it 12 months. With mass vaccination going on right now and with the pending approval of J&J vaccine single dose and spring coming up shortly, I'll say we'll be done with this in two months.
[[The stars are aligning would suggest that this should be over by July.]]
At which point biden or kamalamana will take all the credit
Working backwards from the death numbers, I would expect that we have ~72,641,000 who have been or are currently infected with COVID-19. Additionally, about 21 million have been vaccinated. I think a very conservative estimate would hold that at least 16 million (~75%) of those were not previously infected, bringing the total inoculated by disease or vaccine to ~89 million.
Herd immunity gets a little more challenging with the new variants, particularly since we don’t have a solid R0 for the latest ones yet. I’ve seen estimates anywhere from 4.3 - 5.7. Best case puts the Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) at 77% and worst case puts it at 82% (1-1/R0). The the US, with a population of 330 million, that’s 254 - 271 million before Rt drops below 1 and new infections begin to dwindle toward zero.
Current rate of infection is ~500,000/day nationally and roughly holding steady. It will likely soon decline as major infection centers from this outbreak are passing the top of their bell curve. Current rate of vaccination is just 151,430 per day, but that’s rising and will rise sharply when the Johnson & Johnson vaccine gets approved very soon.
So how long until this ends? Well, we have ~165 million - 182 million left requiring some form of inoculation. At the current rate (assuming nothing ever changed, which is absolutely NOT what will happen), we’re on track for 36 - 40 weeks before we reach HIT and see Rt remain below 1 and new cases on a consistent drop toward zero. However, if we assume a more aggressive ~6.75 million inoculations each week (~5 million vaccinations and an average of half the current infection rate), we’re down to 24 - 27 weeks.
So best case, the first week of July new cases will have trended way down and will never come back up. Absolute worst case (highly unlikely, but still technically possible), last week in October. I think we’re more likely looking at something closer to ~28 weeks, putting us around the last week of July or the first week of August.
No matter what, I think that by Summer or Fall of this year, we’re done with COVID-19 as a disease.
The political issues surrounding it, on the other hand, are a whole other matter entirely. Indict Cuomo. Indict Newsom. Indict every other governor whose actions rise to the level of criminally negligent homicide. A great many of these deaths were unforced errors. Easily predictable, easily avoidable, but CHOICES were made that resulted in mass casualties. They must be held to account.
He’ll probably even say that the Summer of 2020 “protests” helped speed up the herd immunity.
btt
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