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How dangerous is the new Covid-19 variant discovered in the UK?
The New Statesman ^ | 12/24/2020 | Michael Barrett, Professor of biochemical parasitology, University of Glasgow

Posted on 12/25/2020 12:49:12 PM PST by SeekAndFind

Just when we thought there was cause for hope in the Covid-19 vaccines, we’ve hit a wall. Christmas is off and we might all be locked down for months longer. In reality, the vaccines, even once proved to be safe and efficacious, had little chance of impacting the virus this winter. Production, distribution and application to all of those in need in such a short timeframe was never feasible.

However, an increasing drift towards some sort of normality by the spring appeared possible. The UK government’s decision to introduce tier four lockdown restrictions across London and much of the south east, and the travel bans imposed on UK citizens by other countries have created chaos. What prompted such action?

The answer is a new variant of Sars-CoV-2, thought to have enhanced infectivity. Retrospective analysis traced the first identitified case of the variant, named “VUI – 202012/01” (the first Variant Under Investigation in December 2020), to Kent on 20 September. By mid November, around a quarter of all cases in London were caused by the new variant and by mid December nearly two thirds were. Modelling of the relative rate of appearance of the new variant has indicated it might be 70 per cent more transmissible than earlier versions of the virus, although this has yet to be demonstrated directly. One alarming suggestion, from researchers at Imperial College London, hints that children might be more vulnerable to infection with the new variant. If this proves correct, the ramifications are serious both for increased transmission and for potential school closures.

Older versions of the virus were clearly being displaced by this new one, implying enhanced transmission. But evidence that it might also cause worse disease, and a higher mortality rate, has not yet emerged. In fact, viruses often evolve to become less virulent but more contagious because that increases their overall ability to transmit. However, a virus that replicates more quickly will reach higher numbers faster and some individuals, who would normally mount an adequate immune response, might now struggle if their immune response lags behind.

Data on disease severity should be available already. The national consortium of laboratories sequencing viral isolates picked up in the testing programme can pinpoint its distribution. If the clinical picture also points to increasing hospitalisations and deaths where the new variant is most prevalent, we can infer the worst. Minimising spread seems sensible. But the virus has been circulating for at least three months already, so there is little chance of halting its transmission now.

Will the vaccine deal with the crisis? Perhaps, and the current vaccines will work against this new variant. But we need to be cautious. The mutation in the new strain that is attracting most attention is within the spike (S) protein. It is the S protein that enables the virus to bind to receptors (primarily the ACE2 receptor) on our cells before then entering and hijacking the cell’s machinery to replicate and create many new copies of itself. The Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus has been mutating constantly since its first appearance. Such mutation is normal. It is the basis of the evolution of all life forms. Changes occur at random as errors creep in while the genome is copied. Many mutations are detrimental and thus lost quickly. Others are neutral, neither enhancing nor diminishing viral fitness. On rare occasions, however, a change can improve viral fitness. When these happen, as with the novel variant, the virus transmits more readily.

The viral genome encodes the proteins that create the virus itself and mutations lead to changes in that structure. The proteins themselves are made up of strings of little chemicals called amino acids. One of the amino acid changes in the new virus sits in precisely the part of the protein that binds to ACE2, allowing it to bind tighter. Other mutations are appearing in the S protein too. It is the original S protein, the one found in the ancestral virus from Wuhan, that comprises all of the vaccines currently licensed, and most others in development.

There is no great cause for fear as antibodies and T-cell responses, the two branches of protective immunity, hit multiple sites along the S protein, so the new variant is still recognised by immune effectors in vaccinated people. However, as the vaccine is used more widely, the virus will be under increasing pressure as it enters hosts equipped with destructive antibodies. Only viruses with mutations that enable them to evade such antibodies will survive. As these survivors propagate, new mutations will appear, each new S protein resembling the original version less.

These vaccine-evasive variants are indeed possible, although the likelihood of their emergence is not yet clear. That the S protein must retain the ability to bind ACE2 constrains the number of mutations possible. Moreover, the remarkable scientific advances achieved during the pandemic mean that, in principle, we can alter the S proteins added to the vaccine almost as quickly as they emerge.

The flu virus has a far greater capacity to mutate than Covid-19 and it is for this reason that we produce new versions of the flu vaccine each year. It is relatively straightforward to amend the sequence of the vaccines we have now created, although some degree of safety and efficacy testing will be needed on each occasion.

In short, the new variant, with its increased contagiousness, is cause for alarm. If it turns out to be more virulent too, so much the worse. If it is the first step towards a series of viruses drifting away from the structure of those used in generating vaccines, this is worse still.

We must keep testing to detect the viruses and sequencing to trace the mutation problem. But we also need to redouble our efforts in other areas too. Drugs that target parts of the virus beyond the S protein, for example, are needed more urgently than ever. A clear and robust test-and-trace system, supported by enforced isolation, is as critical as ever, too.

The UK has been at the forefront of scientific efforts to combat coronavirus. But ultimately, whether countries have dealt successfully with Covid-19 has been dependent on political intervention – where Britain has fared rather less well.


TOPICS: Health/Medicine; Science; Society
KEYWORDS: covid19; mutation; uk; variant
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To: Zeneta
When a Virus Mutates

Supposedly this particular strain had been around since Sept. If true, all these lock-downs in EU are just BS population control.

21 posted on 12/25/2020 2:04:16 PM PST by NachOsten
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To: SeekAndFind
"How dangerous is the new Covid-19 variant discovered in the UK?“

Apparently, the more virulent strain is having a horrible effect on British teeth...


22 posted on 12/25/2020 2:10:18 PM PST by moovova
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To: no-to-illegals

Lol. I think so, too.


23 posted on 12/25/2020 2:11:02 PM PST by laplata (The Left/Progressives have diseased minds.)
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To: SeekAndFind

If the new mutation is one that only causes the weak flu without a lot of side effects...it could be like a natural vaccine


24 posted on 12/25/2020 2:28:37 PM PST by dila813
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To: NachOsten

Been around since September?

2020?

2019?

1918?

It’s a frickin Virus, people get sick and some people die.

There’s nothing new about any of this.

Keep our Seniors safe.

Take plenty of Vitamin D.

Wear Sunscreen, ?


25 posted on 12/25/2020 2:30:32 PM PST by Zeneta
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To: SeekAndFind

So I wonder why China isn’t suffering from a second wave or a mutated virus. Perhaps the virus got loose long before the world knew about it and they spent that time developing a vaccine to treat it.


26 posted on 12/25/2020 2:31:13 PM PST by antidemoncrat
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To: Zeneta

Sunscreen actually decreases the natural production of vitamin C.


27 posted on 12/25/2020 2:44:07 PM PST by reg45 (Barack 0bama: Gone but not forgiven.)
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To: All
It is as dangerous and life threatening as Covid 19 and maybe a tad more until just like Covid 19 the citizens begin to wake up to the lies and propaganda they fell for then the next deadly strain will come along.

Rinse, Repeat

Those of us that weren't brain washed with the fear mongering of the first Covid 19/pandemic just shake our heads and roll our eyes at those idiots that fall for their crap. We'll see those same idiots go on full freak out mode again and again.

Can't you just imagine Fauci and his buddies talking amongst themselves and laughing their asses off on how they had no idea that it would be so easy to brain wash the masses and get away with it. It makes my blood boil.
28 posted on 12/25/2020 2:45:02 PM PST by ssfromla
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To: SeekAndFind

Liberals love the shit out of Darwin but they haven’t got a clue about how natural selection works.


29 posted on 12/25/2020 2:45:51 PM PST by webheart (Coronavirus, I give up. Come get me.)
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To: reg45

Vitamin D


30 posted on 12/25/2020 2:46:54 PM PST by webheart (Coronavirus, I give up. Come get me.)
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To: Salamander

That’s a good thing.

Keeps you out of jail.


31 posted on 12/25/2020 2:47:46 PM PST by metmom (...fixing our eyes on Jesus, the Author and Perfecter of our faith.....)
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To: Zeneta

this particular strain.....


32 posted on 12/25/2020 2:48:03 PM PST by NachOsten
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To: SeekAndFind

If it’s anything like the current COVID.. we’re good !!


33 posted on 12/25/2020 3:12:13 PM PST by maddog55 ((the only thing systemic in America is the left's hatred of it!))
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To: webheart

Liberals love the shit out of Darwin but they haven’t got a clue about how natural selection works.


Great comment.

Ralph Stanley O Death

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xmRWj7gJEU

Everything about Darwinism is about Death.

Everything about the Left, is about Death.

There is nothing that is “Progressive” or adds to the equation.

It is and the Left is fundamentally anti-life and all about destruction of Life.

This is their “Social experiment”

Despair, turmoil, heartache and conflict are what drives them.

They don’t know or refuse to understand Evil, to know that Satan does exist.

The Long WAR Against GOD;

Henry Morris

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F61bQLIkA8


34 posted on 12/25/2020 3:28:58 PM PST by Zeneta
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To: PGalt

Thank you for linking the article.


35 posted on 12/25/2020 3:34:51 PM PST by aMorePerfectUnion (I'd rather be anecdotally alive than scientifically dead... )
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To: SeekAndFind

The only possible explanation for the excessive pork in this bill is corrupt influence. It’s glaringly obvious and absolutely indefensible.


36 posted on 12/25/2020 3:35:38 PM PST by Spok (All free men are equal only in their freedom; everything else is up to them.dirt road.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Maybe another effect of all the flu vaccines?


37 posted on 12/25/2020 3:37:18 PM PST by Varsity Flight ("War by the prophesies set before you." I Timothy 1:18)
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To: Salamander
hike my shirt over my head


38 posted on 12/25/2020 4:09:23 PM PST by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: webheart

Oops! I knew that.


39 posted on 12/25/2020 4:34:12 PM PST by reg45 (Barack 0bama: Gone but not forgiven.)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

; ) you’re very welcome.


40 posted on 12/25/2020 4:51:50 PM PST by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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