The new strain of the CCP virus that emerged in the UK spreads over 50 percent faster and could make up nine out of 10 cases in the southeast of England by mid-January, according to a preliminary study.
The study (pdf), by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, used mathematical modeling to project the spread of the new strain in the southeast quarter of the country where it is already beginning to dominate.
“We estimate the transmission rate of this variant is 50-74 percent higher than existing variants,” said study author Dr. Nick Davies.
Echoing comments made by government scientists, he said that the study provided “no clear evidence it leads to higher rates of hospitalisation or death.”
However, the study concluded that the higher transmission was likely to ultimately push up the number of cases and drive hospitalisations and deaths beyond the levels of 2020.
“Without effective control policies, rapid surges are predicted and the burden in the first six months of 2021 may be greater than what was seen in 2020,” Davies wrote on Twitter.
The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, analysed data on the variant in London, the southeast, and the east of England.
“If current trends continue, the new variant could represent 90 percent of cases by mid-January.”
Many scientists earlier this week emphasised that there was no evidence yet that vaccines would not be effective on the new strain.
“The response to the new variant has generated a much greater reaction than the previous report of the D614G mutation which arose several months ago and has clearly been shown to increase virus growth rates,” said Dr. Jonathan Stoye of the Francis Crick Institute.