Posted on 11/30/2020 8:12:03 AM PST by tired&retired
A CME launched by yesterday's M4.4-class solar flare might sideswipe Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 1-2, according to NOAA analysts.
Yesterday (Nov. 29th at 1311UT), Earth-orbiting satellites detected the biggest solar flare in more than 3 years. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this extreme-ultraviolet movie of the M4.4 category blast:
X-rays and UV radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, producing a shortwave radio blackout over the South Atlantic: map. Ham radio operators and mariners may have noticed strange propagation effects at frequencies below 20 MHz, with some transmissions below 10 MHz completely extinquished.
Remarkably, this flare was even bigger than it seems. The blast site is located just behind the sun's southeastern limb. As a result, the explosion was partially eclipsed by the body of the sun. It might have been an X-class event.
At first it appeared that the CME would completely miss Earth. However, NOAA analysts believe that the outskirts of the cloud might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 1-2. If so, the impact could spark a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm with auroras over northern countries such as Canada, Iceland, Norway and Sweden.
It would be a different story if the main body of the CME hit. Then we would be anticipating a strong geomagnetic storm. Maybe next time!
"Next time" could be just days away. The hidden sunspot that produced this major event will rotate onto the Earth side of the sun during the next 24 hours or so. Then its ability to spark geomagnetic storms will be greatly increased.
That’s gonna leave a mark.
Best end of the world movie ever. Well, When Worlds Collide was pretty interesting in its day. I have both on DVD.
https://trailersfromhell.com/when-worlds-collide/
There have been rumors of a ‘remake’ for 15 years, with Speilberg....................
I would LOVE to see a modern remake of that movie. And not just for special effects. Rather, how they would implement such a plan in the REAL world and not a one dimensional 50’s movie “real world”.
One thing modern movies are a little better at is working out what real people would do in such a situation - and what the government would do in response and preparations.
.....might sideswipe Earth’s magnetic field.....
Oh yeah. And it might not.
The following 3 images are from today, Nov 30, 2020...
Below, sunspot activity Nov 30, 2020
Below, Magnetogram: opposing magnetic polarities of solar regions (seen as black and white areas)
Below, Extreme ultra-violet (171 Angstroms)
So do reverse polarity CME’s influence the reversals of the earth’s magnetic field?
We are way overdue.
The sun’s polarity field flips every 11 years.
Does the current alignment of the earth’s core magnetic axis and the geograpgic axis decrease oyr magnetic field enough that we suddenly become vulnerable? This only happens about every 2,000 years.
Thus a reverse polarity CME while the earth is vulnerable happens about every 44,000 years. (11 x 2 x 2,000)
The perfect storm.
Sunspots happen most when the dipolar magnetic field of the sun is weakest.
This happens at the midpoint of solar polarity reversal evrry 11 years.
A reverse polarity to the earth’s field is every 22 years.
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