Posted on 11/01/2020 5:54:22 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
We’re now two days away from Election Day, and Joe Biden leads in both national and state polls. At this point, President Trump needs a big polling error in his favor if he's going to win — and as editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes, a 2016-sized polling error just isn’t going to cut it. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t still a path for Trump. Trump might be the underdog, but bigger polling errors have happened in the past, and there’s a difference between a 10 percent chance of winning and a 0 percent chance. A 10 percent chance of winning, which is what our forecast gives Trump, is roughly the same as the odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)
(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...
In that case, if Trump fails to win PA, he needs to win one of the following states (MI, MN, WI) to win reelection.
They may be smarter than you think. The expectations laid coming into this, even as total BS, are cover for protracted post-election fighting in a state like PA, or anywhere where fraudulent votes can gain them victory.
So, they are all “doing their part” as part of the Big Con.
Here is the video by Dinesh D’souza (sorry for butchering his name) - in which he explains why the pollsters act as they do and why they will be proven wrong. 3 1/2 minutes well worth watching:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-RVkGqXFLM
Exactly. Nobody crawled through broken glass to vote for Hillary Clinton and Biden isn't nearly as inspiring.
FiveThirtyEight
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight
“Owner Walt Disney Direct-to-Consumer & International
(The Walt Disney Company)”
If Nate Silver is predicting a Biden win, then Trump has it in the bag. Also, as far as I can tell, the polls aren’t factoring in what we now know to be a significant number of Democrats who are voting for Trump. Trump most certainly hasn’t lost any of his base from 2016, and is clearly expanding that base further with blacks, Hispanics, and blue collar whites. No way can that set of facts possibly equal a Biden win.
Here is some 2016 Silver polling porn:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-big-lead-means-a-steadier-forecast/
He should have been permanently banned from the industry for polling malpractice back in 2016.
What a job—f&^% up over and over with no consequences.
Nate Silver has to be the dumbest SOB on the face of the earth.
Don’t forget there are those of us who have gotten smarter too and have ways of defeating the voter fraud being perpetrated by the CCP. All the toys are in the sandbox this time around.
Actually, there were a lot of liberal women who loved Hillary. Fortunately, not enough to win. Not seeing that for Biden. Just anti-Trump feeling.
Hillary might had been popular with liberal women in big cities but she turned off married suburban women who voted for Trump. Now they’re saying that this crucial bloc is supporting Joe because he’s “nicer” and he doesn’t have the negatives Hillary had.
Tucker had Brett Baier on today and asked him to explain how the polls that had Biden miles ahead had suddenly tightened so much.
Baier looked decidedly uncomfortable. had no credible explanation.
Baier certainly wasn’t going to admit the polls were fake, an attempt to manufacture support for Biden.
Baier went on about AMAZING Dem early voting, then went on to say Dems worried about low early voting in some places.
I think Tucker set him up.
What planet is Biden leading on? Mars?
Biden needs to be in a home.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQN0stFPySU&feature=youtu.be
And/or they’ll tell pollsters they’re for Biden, but the enthusiasm gap prevents many of those from voting
I don’t believe that. Married women will go for Trump.
But you don’t have the “Press” on your side, 24/7 setting the expectation of your victory.
They do. It gives them a lot of latitude, for action.
Thank you I love that clip of brietbart.
From what I am understanding, the response rate this year for polling is 2%, it has been around 50% in previous elections.
538.com, aka “The Cartoon Network”.
Discredited.
In Michigan, you have John James running to take away Gary Peters’ Senate seat, and he pretty convincingly out polls Trump by 1-2 points, he is taking a significant cut of the black vote into the GOP column.
A lot of black voters are weary of the Democratic Party taking them for granted. There are a LOT of conservative black people, but for decades they’ve Bennet indoctrinated that the Dems are their “protectors,” something that seems less and less plausible as extreme leftist priorities take precedence over economy, jobs, school choice and religious values.
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